Bet Angel - Example spreadsheets : Martingale Revisited

Example spreadsheets and comments on example spreadsheets.
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grindhog
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Sun Jun 21, 2020 2:56 pm

Ive been looking at Martingale - to improve the return on a strategy which is all theory at the mo. I think Martingale has possibilities. If you have a half decent Win/Loss ratio say 2;1 and a return of about 66% of stake on average then Martingale becomes viable does it not? Of course you would need a sequence limit in place. I know many are dead against martingale but I can see an option for it in some circumstances. Next question if its viable how do you implement in excel? What are the difficulties there?

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to75ne
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Sun Jun 21, 2020 2:58 pm

do yourself a favour and forget it. go for a walk, read a book, have er drink, do anything to get this stupid idea out your head.

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rik
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Sun Jun 21, 2020 2:59 pm

2-1 win loss ratio is not half decent but very good
martingale means extreme variance, as you give yourself the chance to go bust, absolutely what you want to avoid

spreadbetting
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Sun Jun 21, 2020 3:11 pm

If you can accurately predict the probability why not simply use the Kelly criterion for your stakes.

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jimibt
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Sun Jun 21, 2020 3:27 pm

i have to agree with SB. Martingale is just not worth the agro. I'm not surprised tho' that it still has some traction. A lot of the snake oil salesmen punt Martingale as the *engine* behind their strategy (*a winner is always around the corner* etc).

If you really do have a decent strike rate with an ROI of 66%, then explore Kelly Criterion as this takes into account things such as probability and adjusts to suit conditions (of the bet).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

paraphrasing t0ne75, go for a skydive, absail, freebase... literally look at much safer options!

grindhog
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Sun Jun 21, 2020 3:46 pm

Its all about the Bank i think.If you apply a sequence Loss limit then going bust might not arise. A massive bank (relative to your stake) might help. I think kelly afaik is not as lucrative (and Im a greedy b...d). To be perfectly honest I have a winning strategy in mind which itself can wipe your bank if you are unlucky to start at a bad time but if you get over the hump of about 3 weeks in then it should win ( A paupers last words!). I was able to backtest the strategy over 1 years data (with a bit of difficulty with constructing the formulas) and the multiple of increase was approx 3.5.
I limited the stake to a maximum 10 fold initial stake increase in a loss sequence ( or days loss to date if lesser and writing off any cumulative losses of previous day). I am sure others have done similar and would like their thoughts before I read that book or go for a pint.
Id love to have the whole thing automated in excel though. Dont fancy 1 to 9pm in front of PC.

spreadbetting
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Sun Jun 21, 2020 4:01 pm

As long as you have distinct rules (no late flip flopping favourites etc ) and are able to accurately obtain results, there's no reason you shouldn't be able to automate things. Just give it a go that's the only way you'll be able to tell if you've stumbled upon something others haven't.

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MemphisFlash
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Sun Jun 21, 2020 4:03 pm

Martingale, fibonnacci, Kelly criterion all strategies that will send you to the poor house.

grindhog
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Sun Jun 21, 2020 4:06 pm

Thanks Jimibt for the input :D Your definitely havin a Larf which is fair enough! The new Po shen-Loh formula for Quadratic equations is the limit of my equation capability.

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Derek27
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Sun Jun 21, 2020 4:11 pm

grindhog wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 3:46 pm
Its all about the Bank i think.If you apply a sequence Loss limit then going bust might not arise.
Yes, but you'll lose a large chunk of your bank when you reach your limit!
grindhog wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 3:46 pm
A massive bank (relative to your stake) might help. I think kelly afaik is not as lucrative (and Im a greedy b...d).
You can't take money that's not on the table. The Kelly criterium calculates the optimal stake, why would you want to stake more? Why don't you pressure your tyres to 50 psi? Surely that must be better and safer than 35?
grindhog wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 3:46 pm
To be perfectly honest I have a winning strategy in mind which itself can wipe your bank if you are unlucky to start at a bad time...
A winning strategy that can wipe out your bank, :lol: of course, that's the first thing we all think of when we have a winning strategy, but if you use Kelly it can't wipe out your bank because your stakes reduce proportionally.
grindhog wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 3:46 pm
...but if you get over the hump of about 3 weeks in then it should win ( A paupers last words!). I was able to backtest the strategy over 1 years data (with a bit of difficulty with constructing the formulas) and the multiple of increase was approx 3.5.
It should win anyway, even more by using the Kelly criterium.

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