Bet Angel - Example spreadsheets : Martingale Revisited

Example spreadsheets and comments on example spreadsheets.
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firlandsfarm
Posts: 1181
Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:14 pm

Euler wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:28 am
After about ten years of trading on Betfair I came to the conclusion people didn't want to profit, they wanted to win.

Winning is very different from profiting in the long term.
Agreed, the casual punter gets a kick out of a winning bet more than being just profitable long-term.

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Derek27
Posts: 8691
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Location: UK

Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:19 pm

firlandsfarm wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:14 pm
Euler wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:28 am
After about ten years of trading on Betfair I came to the conclusion people didn't want to profit, they wanted to win.

Winning is very different from profiting in the long term.
Agreed, the casual punter gets a kick out of a winning bet more than being just profitable long-term.
There's nothing wrong with the casual punter having a bet on his team for a bit of excitement. The problem is when casual punters decide to take betting or trading seriously and has difficulty changing their attitude and approach to winning and profiting.

grindhog
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Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:22 pm

I will be providing a spreadsheet er that replaces the original replacing it with a losing strategy . While I have not finished it because as you will see the formulas for the martingale part are ridiculously complicated and transforming it is more difficult than I expected and my other work overtook me. Its looking like maybe you can only prove it definitely works by showing it working using a winning strategy anyway. Will revert later.

firlandsfarm
Posts: 1181
Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:24 pm

Something I can't see has been mentioned so far is that 'pure Martingale' assumes odds of evens and that doesn't apply with the odds on most events so an adjustment needs to be made to the recovery portion of the stake (recovery amount/odds). If you start going odds-on the recovery stake grows exponentially but not just to a power of 2 but 3 or 4 and dutching can easily put you in an effective odds-on position. The thing is the more frequent a strategy wins then generally the lower the odds will be and the higher the recovery stake following a loss. If a strategy has a success rate well in excess of the probability implied by the odds then whoopie, why muck around with it and risk a bad martingale, just go for it and make some hay. :)

grindhog
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Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:56 pm

Hi Firlandsfarm.
The question arises as follows If say you you back the fav in every race. Afaik you break even over the year. I think I tested and confirmed that before. Does that make your bet system equivalent to an alternate win and loss at evs for every race. As far as outcome it does.
Of course if you use martingale on an alterate win at ev loss at ev are you toast as you would be at varied wins/losses at varied odds. I
am sure if you back the fav in every race normally your losing races exceed you winning races by a great margin but you still break even.
I am not sure if my hypotetical means anything except that I agree that Martingale is wrongly conceived sometimes on the basis you outline
Not every race is backed at EV and it certainly does not not have alternate win/lose and its the sequential losses (if you allow them) that can break the bank. Not sure if all that makes sense.?

Atho55
Posts: 392
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm

Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:33 pm

In terms of wins / losses as a % for Rank 1 it looks something like this...

Rank 1 Win %.jpg

Backing every Rank 1 over the same period it would be a positive return.
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spreadbetting
Posts: 2945
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:39 pm

Atho55 wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:33 pm
In terms of wins / losses as a % for Rank 1 it looks something like this...


Rank 1 Win %.jpg


Backing every Rank 1 over the same period it would be a positive return.

I'd be surprised if anyone is able to back rank 1 consistently, or accurately, with the amount of flip flopping favourites late in the markets.

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Derek27
Posts: 8691
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Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:43 pm

grindhog wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:22 pm
I will be providing a spreadsheet er that replaces the original replacing it with a losing strategy . While I have not finished it because as you will see the formulas for the martingale part are ridiculously complicated and transforming it is more difficult than I expected and my other work overtook me. Its looking like maybe you can only prove it definitely works by showing it working using a winning strategy anyway. Will revert later.
If you need a winning strategy what's the flipping point in using the Martingale?

A winning strategy can have a long losing run but still make a healthy profit over a year. Use the Martingale and you're fucked!

grindhog
Posts: 131
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Location: Cork Ireland
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Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:53 pm

Hi Martin27
I can assure you I have a winning strategy that works with martingale. I am sorry if I gave the impression I was going to disclose it.
Never intended to !. What I can upload is my template that uses Martingale but on a losing strategy. It should at least improve the losing strategy.At some time in the evening you shall see it uploaded.
That was me speaking too soon as usual.

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MemphisFlash
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Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:34 pm

let him do it. over time he will lose money, hopefully to me then i will thank himpersonally for using Martigale.
He has had all the advice and still doesn't want to listen. Time to fleece him of his money.

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