Bet Angel - Example spreadsheets : Martingale Revisited

Example spreadsheets and comments on example spreadsheets.
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Derek27
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Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:31 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:21 pm
If people refuse to believe that a martingale doesn't work long term, then maybe they'll accept the arguement that there's much better ways to make a lot lot more, so why waste time looking at a dodo?
The Martingale is the last chance saloon, for people who tried but can't find an edge, or people who don't have the energy to work at an edge and want an easy option.

eightbo
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Location: Barcelona

Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:02 pm

Imagine a CEO proposing a martingale type risk overlay to their board of directors in a company in the real-world.
How to lose your job 101.
Last edited by eightbo on Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Naffman
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Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:02 pm

Last 11 faves in UK lost tonight, martingale would've done well :P

eightbo
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Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:05 pm

eightbo wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:02 pm
Imagine a CEO proposing a martingale type risk overlay to their board of directors in a company in the real-world.
How to lose your job 101.
"I know I know, the MoneyMaker v4 didn't perform like we thought it did. Now I know what you're thinking but don't worry, I've already allocated twice the resources for the MoneyMaker v5 in order to make back what we lost on the first 4. We'll be home free in no time."

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wearthefoxhat
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Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:09 am

There are some famous examples of "Martingalers" in stock market history....(look how that worked out) :roll:

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Derek27
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Location: UK

Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:44 am

Perhaps this is the way to deal with the virus - bombard it with antibodies. :lol:

If the OP's still reading, this would be a good reason for abandoning the Martingale after successfully backtesting for a year. :)

From Wikipedia:
By the end of 1992, the error account's losses exceeded £2 million, increasing to £23 million in late 1993. This amount ballooned to £208 million by the end of 1994. Leeson had followed a "doubling" strategy: every time he lost money, he would double the amount that was lost in order to recoup the amount. This had been successful for him in the past, including once in 1993 where he was able to cover a £6 million negative balance in the error account and after which he vowed not to use the account again. However, Leeson had to maintain his reputation as a trading genius and soon found himself hiding his losses there again.

...

The beginning of the end occurred on 16 January 1995, when Leeson placed a short straddle in the Singapore and Tokyo stock exchanges, essentially betting that the Japanese stock market would not move significantly overnight. However, the Kobe earthquake hit early in the morning on 17 January, sending Asian markets, and Leeson's trading positions, into a tailspin. Leeson attempted to recoup his losses by making a series of increasingly risky new trades (using a long-long future arbitrage), this time betting that the Nikkei Stock Average would make a rapid recovery. However, the recovery failed to materialise.

Leeson left a note reading, "I'm sorry" and fled Singapore on 23 February. Losses eventually reached £827 million (US$1.4 billion), twice Barings's available trading capital. After a failed bailout attempt, Barings, which had been the UK's oldest merchant bank, was declared insolvent on 26 February.

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Derek27
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Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:59 am

Actually that's probably not a good example. Reading further on the Wiki site, he's now re-married, a regular after-dinner speaker, commercial manager of Galway United FC, guest lecturer and written a book. I hope the 1,200 people who lost their jobs when Baring Bank collapsed were able to pick themselves up from his actions. :roll:

Archery1969
Posts: 717
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

Thu Jun 25, 2020 10:05 am

Nothing wrong with Martingale. Brilliant cricketer.

grindhog
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Joined: Wed Nov 03, 2010 12:10 am
Location: Cork Ireland
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Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:10 pm

Having thrown the toys out of the pram Ive come back to confirm. MARTINGALE DOES NOT WORK! I had the opportunity to read all the posts
and nearly everbody in here knows more about Martingale than I do. I was not expecting that I would have to defend it and I found the
number of posts overwhelming and did not read most of them until now. Most of the posts were critical and some were possibly required
a response.I apologise to anybody that I insulted by appearing to ignore their questions to me.
In general I am not familiar with the way social media works (over 60 now) but do know that if you post something you should be able to defend it which I was not able to do. I have been gambling all my adult life and thankfully it has given me something good. A zen-like
emotional detachment that comes in very handy when you lose. :D
Of course what I have been doing is only a third cousin of Martingale twice removed but I really do not want to be involved in any further
discussions on it (as I cant defend it without showing it in action). Trumps snake oil - Hydroxyclorine all over again :evil:

Trader Pat
Posts: 670
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:22 pm

grindhog wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:10 pm
Having thrown the toys out of the pram Ive come back to confirm. MARTINGALE DOES NOT WORK!
In other news the Earth is round, Nobody lives forever and Liverpool are Champions of England! :P

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