Automated Racing naps & tips from newspapers

Example spreadsheets and comments on example spreadsheets.
freddy
Posts: 1132
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 8:22 pm

There isnt a newspaper tipster in the land that makes long term profits.

Charlatans the lot of them ;) .

but that does not mean you can not profit in some way from the clueless numpties :lol:
pecheli
Posts: 25
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2012 6:12 pm

Hi!
I can't full use the spreadsheet.
It says
This workbook has lost its VBA project, ActiveX controls and any other programmability-related features

Anyone know what's up? Sounds promising.
Burt_100
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Sep 07, 2010 9:03 pm

Hi,
I am new to BA and realativelty new to trading but I have come accross this post and it is of great uinterest to me as I was thinking of basing one of my trading strategy's on it. What i was thinking was that surely if a horse is heavily tipped by 2 or more of the bigger tipsters i.e, racing post and the sun then surely in theory the odds should drop on this horse due to the weight of money that will be put on the horse so therefore would it not be worth placing a back bet the morning of the race and lay it off just before the race, Would this work with a bit of monitoring the market or has anyone any suggestions?
Burt_100
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Sep 07, 2010 9:03 pm

Hi,
I am new to BA and realativelty new to trading but I have come accross this post and it is of great uinterest to me as I was thinking of basing one of my trading strategy's on it. What i was thinking was that surely if a horse is heavily tipped by 2 or more of the bigger tipsters i.e, racing post and the sun then surely in theory the odds should drop on this horse due to the weight of money that will be put on the horse so therefore would it not be worth placing a back bet the morning of the race and lay it off just before the race, Would this work with a bit of monitoring the market or has anyone any suggestions?
sciman
Posts: 1
Joined: Wed Nov 28, 2012 8:24 am

Hi Burt

I've done quite a lot of research on newspaper tipsters, especially their naps.

What I found was that even though their tips may be based on their own individual systems/info, they are essentially random in that the strike rates of their selections are broadly in line with their expected strike rates, given the odds of their selections.

Laying their selections does produce a profit but it is only about 2% after commission. I wouldn't advise laying them unless you like roller-coasters because the p/l can be quite erratic - and that's putting it mildly.

It would be reasonable to expect that if a horse is selected by several tipster, then its odds would fall during pre-race betting and therefore could be traded. What I found was that just as many selections increased as decreased in odds.

Basically, backing tipster selections leads to a small loss. Laying them leads to a profit which is so small that it isn't worth the agro and when trading them, you are in the lap of the gods.

IMHO, they are best avoided.
elcapitain
Posts: 45
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 4:01 pm

Im enjoying quite nice profits following tipsters etc.

I don't want to let the cat out of the bag though... ooops! :shock:
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

With greatest respect, I'd quit while I was ahead if I were you. :)

The vast, vast majority of tipsters don't provide a profit month after month, year after year. If you think about it, the market is designed to ensure that they can't, unless they strictly limit their subscribers...

Jeff
elcapitain wrote:Im enjoying quite nice profits following tipsters etc.
haichless
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2012 5:04 pm

sciman- i have done similar analysis with simailar results, if looking at the overall results from major papers tipsters, on an overall basis.
However drilling down to individual papers i have found one or two that are worth laying individually, on a longer term basis, but none that are worth backing consistantly...
User avatar
mugsgame
Posts: 1235
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

Any Pro, or even keen enthusiast will tell you that the key to making a profit backing horse is to be selective. The top tipsters, Hugh Taylor and Pricewise, may give out 1 or 2 tips a day.
The other tipsters may have to doa whole card or even a whole days racing. Now i don't back horses this way. But I do know how to rate a race and make a tissue. To do one race properly may take 2 hours, maybe more depending on the runners. So if you have 30 races.....

The Nap is a product of that work, not a seek out 1 bet.

That's why they are "useless". How many pundits do you see on TV, that shirk giving a selection? Jonathan Neesom is one of the worst. He hardly ever commits, Paul Morrsion admits to having only 5 or 6 bets a year. Neeson actually writes a spotlight column in the RP. I have seen him back peddel and say I wouldn't have a bet in this race, and he has a selection in the RP! That's why tipsters are pants. They are only to stick on betting shop walls for the sheep to read.

Your better doing the work and picking out your own selections to lay. Gives you more satisfaction to know it's your own fault when you lose :)
User avatar
mugsgame
Posts: 1235
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

Any Pro, or even keen enthusiast will tell you that the key to making a profit backing horse is to be selective. The top tipsters, Hugh Taylor and Pricewise, may give out 1 or 2 tips a day.
The other tipsters may have to doa whole card or even a whole days racing. Now i don't back horses this way. But I do know how to rate a race and make a tissue. To do one race properly may take 2 hours, maybe more depending on the runners. So if you have 30 races.....

The Nap is a product of that work, not a seek out 1 bet.

That's why they are "useless". How many pundits do you see on TV, that shirk giving a selection? Jonathan Neesom is one of the worst. He hardly ever commits, Paul Morrsion admits to having only 5 or 6 bets a year. Neeson actually writes a spotlight column in the RP. I have seen him back peddel and say I wouldn't have a bet in this race, and he has a selection in the RP! That's why tipsters are pants. They are only to stick on betting shop walls for the sheep to read.

Your better doing the work and picking out your own selections to lay. Gives you more satisfaction to know it's your own fault when you lose :)
oliver123
Posts: 174
Joined: Thu Sep 24, 2009 9:25 am

Sorry for being blunt but why would anybody want to take any notice of tipsters? Monitor your bets, record all wins and losses, and do your own thing. This has been my approach for years!!
kerberus
Posts: 366
Joined: Mon Aug 05, 2013 3:28 pm

The same reason lions hang around waterholes.
8-)
The betdaq "tip check"(others are available) or napchecker, etc.etc.etcetera, act as a shopping list of where the money is gonna go. Why spend hours hunting when the food self-delivers. I always listen to Radio 4 Racing tips (you don't need a licence for a radio and you can listen whilst driving). Betfair have their "follow the money" section and so on.
No need to believe in a single word they say.
:lol:
Now I'm feelin' hungry :twisted:
Halliday
Posts: 460
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:40 pm

nigelk wrote:
Mon Feb 14, 2011 11:58 am
I would think that a lot of 'naps' have would have no effect on a horses price, (dependent on which newspaper it is.)

The Sun, RacingPost, Daily Mirror, Star, etc etc are nationwide newspapers and read by millions of punters. There are others, such as the Shropshire Star are probably only read by a few thousand.

I would look out for races where a lot of major newspaper tipsters go for the same horse as a guideline as to whether or not it's going to steam?
There are very few "tipsters that regularly influence movement in the market. 2 that most certainly do are Tom Segal (Pricewise) of the Racing Post, and Hugh Taylor on the ATR Website. There maybe one or two others but most don't
kerberus
Posts: 366
Joined: Mon Aug 05, 2013 3:28 pm

TODAY'S RED HOT TIP

"Ernie (The Fastest Milkman in the West)" 11 December 1971 4

Song , Date, weeks at No1 in the Top Twenty

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8e1xvyTdBZI

It's a horse-drawn millkcart. The horse's name was Trigger.



Kerberus also wrote

"No need to believe in a single word they say." :shock:

Please bet on Trigger

: :twisted:
User avatar
Crazyskier
Posts: 1157
Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm

PeterLe wrote:
Mon Feb 14, 2011 1:44 pm
PeterLe wrote:thanks Nigel,

I've often wondered how tips affect the prices the nearer we get to the off..So i will monitor it over the next few days...

Incidentally, there is a horse running today 14:20 at Catterick (Bettys Run) that has been napped and is showing at 1000/1..? Still seems to be a runner, maybe worth a punt!?
Hi
..Was just thinking about this horse I mentioned this morning...
Well ~£300 has been matched at 1000..(£2 of it mine!)
If I was to submit a lay bet for £2 and select take SP...what do you think it would be matched at?? (I expect a 1000, but what do you think??)
You wouldn't get matched and could wave goodbye to your £2

CS
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