Bet Angel - Example spreadsheets : Automated Racing naps & tips from newspapers

Example spreadsheets and comments on example spreadsheets.
freddy
Posts: 1132
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 8:22 pm

Thu Apr 26, 2012 10:40 pm

There isnt a newspaper tipster in the land that makes long term profits.

Charlatans the lot of them ;) .

but that does not mean you can not profit in some way from the clueless numpties :lol:

pecheli
Posts: 25
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2012 6:12 pm

Fri Apr 27, 2012 6:32 pm

Hi!
I can't full use the spreadsheet.
It says
This workbook has lost its VBA project, ActiveX controls and any other programmability-related features

Anyone know what's up? Sounds promising.

Burt_100
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Sep 07, 2010 9:03 pm

Fri Jul 13, 2012 1:04 pm

Hi,
I am new to BA and realativelty new to trading but I have come accross this post and it is of great uinterest to me as I was thinking of basing one of my trading strategy's on it. What i was thinking was that surely if a horse is heavily tipped by 2 or more of the bigger tipsters i.e, racing post and the sun then surely in theory the odds should drop on this horse due to the weight of money that will be put on the horse so therefore would it not be worth placing a back bet the morning of the race and lay it off just before the race, Would this work with a bit of monitoring the market or has anyone any suggestions?

Burt_100
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Sep 07, 2010 9:03 pm

Fri Jul 13, 2012 1:06 pm

Hi,
I am new to BA and realativelty new to trading but I have come accross this post and it is of great uinterest to me as I was thinking of basing one of my trading strategy's on it. What i was thinking was that surely if a horse is heavily tipped by 2 or more of the bigger tipsters i.e, racing post and the sun then surely in theory the odds should drop on this horse due to the weight of money that will be put on the horse so therefore would it not be worth placing a back bet the morning of the race and lay it off just before the race, Would this work with a bit of monitoring the market or has anyone any suggestions?

sciman
Posts: 1
Joined: Wed Nov 28, 2012 8:24 am

Wed Nov 28, 2012 8:42 am

Hi Burt

I've done quite a lot of research on newspaper tipsters, especially their naps.

What I found was that even though their tips may be based on their own individual systems/info, they are essentially random in that the strike rates of their selections are broadly in line with their expected strike rates, given the odds of their selections.

Laying their selections does produce a profit but it is only about 2% after commission. I wouldn't advise laying them unless you like roller-coasters because the p/l can be quite erratic - and that's putting it mildly.

It would be reasonable to expect that if a horse is selected by several tipster, then its odds would fall during pre-race betting and therefore could be traded. What I found was that just as many selections increased as decreased in odds.

Basically, backing tipster selections leads to a small loss. Laying them leads to a profit which is so small that it isn't worth the agro and when trading them, you are in the lap of the gods.

IMHO, they are best avoided.

elcapitain
Posts: 45
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 4:01 pm

Wed Mar 13, 2013 8:06 pm

Im enjoying quite nice profits following tipsters etc.

I don't want to let the cat out of the bag though... ooops! :shock:

Ferru123
Posts: 6769
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Wed Mar 13, 2013 8:08 pm

With greatest respect, I'd quit while I was ahead if I were you. :)

The vast, vast majority of tipsters don't provide a profit month after month, year after year. If you think about it, the market is designed to ensure that they can't, unless they strictly limit their subscribers...

Jeff
elcapitain wrote:Im enjoying quite nice profits following tipsters etc.

haichless
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2012 5:04 pm

Wed Mar 13, 2013 10:27 pm

sciman- i have done similar analysis with simailar results, if looking at the overall results from major papers tipsters, on an overall basis.
However drilling down to individual papers i have found one or two that are worth laying individually, on a longer term basis, but none that are worth backing consistantly...

User avatar
mugsgame
Posts: 1235
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

Wed Mar 13, 2013 10:43 pm

Any Pro, or even keen enthusiast will tell you that the key to making a profit backing horse is to be selective. The top tipsters, Hugh Taylor and Pricewise, may give out 1 or 2 tips a day.
The other tipsters may have to doa whole card or even a whole days racing. Now i don't back horses this way. But I do know how to rate a race and make a tissue. To do one race properly may take 2 hours, maybe more depending on the runners. So if you have 30 races.....

The Nap is a product of that work, not a seek out 1 bet.

That's why they are "useless". How many pundits do you see on TV, that shirk giving a selection? Jonathan Neesom is one of the worst. He hardly ever commits, Paul Morrsion admits to having only 5 or 6 bets a year. Neeson actually writes a spotlight column in the RP. I have seen him back peddel and say I wouldn't have a bet in this race, and he has a selection in the RP! That's why tipsters are pants. They are only to stick on betting shop walls for the sheep to read.

Your better doing the work and picking out your own selections to lay. Gives you more satisfaction to know it's your own fault when you lose :)

User avatar
mugsgame
Posts: 1235
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

Wed Mar 13, 2013 10:43 pm

Any Pro, or even keen enthusiast will tell you that the key to making a profit backing horse is to be selective. The top tipsters, Hugh Taylor and Pricewise, may give out 1 or 2 tips a day.
The other tipsters may have to doa whole card or even a whole days racing. Now i don't back horses this way. But I do know how to rate a race and make a tissue. To do one race properly may take 2 hours, maybe more depending on the runners. So if you have 30 races.....

The Nap is a product of that work, not a seek out 1 bet.

That's why they are "useless". How many pundits do you see on TV, that shirk giving a selection? Jonathan Neesom is one of the worst. He hardly ever commits, Paul Morrsion admits to having only 5 or 6 bets a year. Neeson actually writes a spotlight column in the RP. I have seen him back peddel and say I wouldn't have a bet in this race, and he has a selection in the RP! That's why tipsters are pants. They are only to stick on betting shop walls for the sheep to read.

Your better doing the work and picking out your own selections to lay. Gives you more satisfaction to know it's your own fault when you lose :)

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