Pertubation?

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rinconpaul
Posts: 112
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:39 pm

Does the frequency that a Back offer changes on new volume over a predetermined time period have any predictive value? Surely a random event? At first glance yes, but there is a higher power at work, just like the Fibonacci Spiral, just like the percentage the favourite wins, it never changes, no matter what you throw at it!

All this comes about by the collective actions of many bettors "the Public". One of the most successful betting gurus, Australian David Walsh, when asked what his edge was, said," Public odds must be included in your model. The best models are not predictive, but ‘pertubation’ models that start with the assumption that the public is right and then work out what small errors they might make." The definition of Pertubation: a deviation of a system, moving object, or process from its regular or normal state or path, caused by an outside influence.

I have discovered over 100's of thousands of price changes that a ratio exists between number of price changes as a variable together with average price of all those price changes on new volume for placegetters as opposed non-placegetters? A bit like 30:70 favourites win and non favourites lose. Trouble is you can't make any money as the commission cruels it. That's because all the mathematical models are focused on such relationships. Look for over and underlays outside the realms of just price, and include frequency of price changes on new volume?
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Derek27
Posts: 23472
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

That must be why there are so many replies.
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