Commodities

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Archangel
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Gold is interesting. Been a long decline with the strong dollar and stocks.
Its been a while since I have seen Options traders going bullish but there is defintely that sentiment turning now
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Archangel
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Thursday was the worst day to hit the world markets in 18 months. China fell 4%
Oil continues to decline so there is definitely some flight to Gold and Treasuries as a sort of 'safe haven' . VIX is exploding which is good news for options trading
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marksmeets302
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I'm interested in your approach... When selling premium, do you also add longs to control risk?

If not, you might also want to consider shorting the vix future directly. This will lower your transaction costs and at the same time make sure you are diversified into a full basket. A sudden bankruptcy of one of the components will not hurt you that much then.
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Archangel
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I guess for selling premium I am comfortable as I can win in a few different scenarios. With price direction i can be profitable if the price stays the same, moves against a little, or in my favor. Buying premium would only give the trader the opportunity to profit in one direction. Obviously in a high IV environment we can benefit as sellers as we can profit from an IV contraction too. There is also the Theta decay, or time decay that all options have
Obvioulsy , as you say there are ways to hedge and control risk. There will always be moves outside the Standard Deviation that casue losses but i guess its about probablilites at the end of the day
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Euler
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From darling to disaster, it seems Glencore could be in serious trouble. But I learnt long ago to avoid companies with significant debt burdens, especially in cyclical industries. Quite amazing to see this unfold though. Maybe should have shorted it!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34388600
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Euler
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Glencore is a good example of how if you avoid dogs you can outperform a tracker fund. Especially in a cap weighted index ;)
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Archangel
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Theres great opportunity in the Bonds at the moment. Some big moves in there daily and not always following the usual relationship with the indexes.
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marksmeets302
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Glencore is a good example of how if you avoid dogs you can outperform a tracker fund. Especially in a cap weighted index ;)
Avoiding dogs is a difficult game. Guess I'm better off sticking with the index :-)

For instance Volkswagen... who would have thought?

According to an article I read, in the Netherlands we had (just this year!) Fagron, Heijmans, Besi, Altice, Delta Lloyd, Arcadis, Gemalto, Aegon, Ordina, Imtech, Ballast Nedam, Macintosh, Vopak, Telegraaf, ArcelorMittal and Galapagos. That's 20% percent of our big cap and mid cap stocks!
Theres great opportunity in the Bonds at the moment. Some big moves in there daily and not always following the usual relationship with the indexes.
Absolutely!
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Euler
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If you had invested in the Bloomberg Commodity index in January 1991, you would not have made any money for 24.5 years

http://www.beyondproxy.com/investing-in-commodities/
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Euler
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The Rise and Fall of Commodities Hedge Fund King

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... em-kooyker
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Euler
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Have we reached the market bottom?

Iron Ore Jumps Most on Record as Market Goes 'Berserk'

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... k-on-china
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Euler
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This was a good story: -

From rags to riches to rags in 12 years: the extraordinary story of Nathan Tinkler

http://www.theguardian.com/australia-ne ... ommodities
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Euler
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50% Returns Coming For Commodities And Emerging Markets?

http://mebfaber.com/2016/04/21/50-retur ... g-markets/
Lost The Rider
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50% Returns Coming For Commodities And Emerging Markets?
It is all very well making a case with historical trends but he has not provided any macros to suggest history will repeat itself. I personally cannot see any indictors for strong economic growth required to drive the predicted returns in the next 6 months. If the dollar continues to weaken then a long position in those asset classes will be very shaky.
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