Trading Financial markets : Forex Trading

Long, short, Bitcoin, forex - Plenty of alternate market disuccsion.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 16102
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ
Contact:

Thu Oct 20, 2016 10:21 am

andyfuller wrote:It would have been great to have something like it in sports markets but due to the issue with scale it never will happen - it would have been interesting to have seen the reality v some of the fiction that is posted on the internet.
My main problem nowadays is getting a position in and out of the market without disrupting the market it and it seems easier than ever for that to happen. So I can't see how it would work in sports markets.

As you also mention, the market is small but flattered by people pretending to be something they are not which makes it look larger than it is. Thanks to this I still get a lot of stick despite actually being a large participant whom people mistake me for one of those guys! #frustrating

User avatar
megarain
Posts: 857
Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 1:26 pm
Location: megarainuk.blogspot.com

Thu Oct 20, 2016 10:59 am


Do you mean by this the ability for your trades as a follower to be placed automatically in line with the tipster? Or is it something else?
I haven't tried, but think the process is :

Tipster has his bet on the software.

Lists tip on site.

Tips get sent to followers, as an input file.

Software automatically picks it up, and places trade, with your criteria (so, if he makes it a 2 point bet, it allocates funds accordingly )

For in-play mkts, it might be tricky - but, pre, can't really see many issues.

User avatar
Euler
Posts: 16102
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ
Contact:

Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:23 am

megarain wrote:Software automatically picks it up, and places trade, with your criteria (so, if he makes it a 2 point bet, it allocates funds accordingly )

For in-play mkts, it might be tricky - but, pre, can't really see many issues.
Straight tips would work, but it may just be survivors that bubble to the top of the lists.

xitian
Posts: 441
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 2:08 pm

Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:29 am

Regarding scalability of sports vs financials, I think it depends what markets you're talking about. I effectively run statistical arbitrage on sports, and the closest thing there is in financial markets would be trading shares. i.e. Large numbers of (reasonably) independent runners which I can place many different bets on to create a consistent return.

However with shares, I think the scalability is debatable at medium frequency or lower (unless you start using more complex order placement algorithms). It's not uncommon to see market makers quoting Apple shares with a volume of 200 shares. They basically want to see you from a mile away if you want to place any sort of decent sized trade.

However, if you're talking something like forex or index futures then sure, the volume is likely massive. But my view is that the more you scale in one specific instrument (rather than scaling by diversification) the more risk you're taking. So with forex or futures, sure you can get a huge absolute return especially if you leverage, but you can also have huge risk.

Sports will still be the only market where I can generate over 1000% return in 1 year with close to zero risk.

I might change my opinion one day, of course. But that's just my current feeling. I've still yet to pick marksmeets' brain about it. I get the impression he probably has some ideas to alleviate some of my concerns. Andy, perhaps you have some ideas as well? I'm basically about talking ways to trade, effectively unmanaged (in my case automated, rule based), which is what I do with sports right now.

andyfuller
Posts: 4618
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm

Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:44 am

megarain wrote: I haven't tried, but think the process is :

Tipster has his bet on the software.

Lists tip on site.

Tips get sent to followers, as an input file.

Software automatically picks it up, and places trade, with your criteria (so, if he makes it a 2 point bet, it allocates funds accordingly )

For in-play mkts, it might be tricky - but, pre, can't really see many issues.
Sorry I miss read your original post and thought you were talking about financials and not sports. I didn't realise this was becoming available in sports trading.
xitian wrote:Regarding scalability of sports vs financials, I think it depends what markets you're talking about.
I think that is a fair comment - I was generalising which I shouldn't have done so, many financial markets you can still run into issue with scale.
xitian wrote:Andy, perhaps you have some ideas as well? I'm basically about talking ways to trade, effectively unmanaged (in my case automated, rule based), which is what I do with sports right now.
I couldn't help you with regards to automation - it is one area I have never looked into be it sports or financials - I wish I had back in the day on sports markets as even with the PC it would have been worth carrying on with getting 40% as opposed to having 100% of nothing.

xitian
Posts: 441
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 2:08 pm

Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:59 am

andyfuller wrote:
xitian wrote: Andy, perhaps you have some ideas as well? I'm basically about talking ways to trade, effectively unmanaged (in my case automated, rule based), which is what I do with sports right now.
I couldn't help you with regards to automation - it is one area I have never looked into be it sports or financials - I wish I had back in the day on sports markets as even with the PC it would have been worth carrying on with getting 40% as opposed to having 100% of nothing.
I suppose I'm not necessarily looking for automated. I'd just be looking for relatively hands-off or unmanaged. Basically I don't want to have to be on the button ready to sell within seconds if some kind of news breaks which I need to react to. However I'd still like to have a sizeable portfolio (in value regardless of what it's formed of) with close to zero risk. Yes, of course that's what everyone is looking for, but I'd be happy to hold for a long term or adjust/rehedge at a medium frequency if needed.

I think the only way to achieve low risk but maintain any sort of return is to either: have massive diversification (i.e. stat arb) with automation, or be manually trading and sitting at the computer all day.

PeterW, surely this is exactly what you're trying to do now too. How much risk would you say your financial investments have? And how hands-on are you? Or perhaps you have people managing your investments for you?

User avatar
Euler
Posts: 16102
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ
Contact:

Thu Oct 20, 2016 8:12 pm

xitian wrote:PeterW, surely this is exactly what you're trying to do now too. How much risk would you say your financial investments have? And how hands-on are you? Or perhaps you have people managing your investments for you?
I've gone down the long-term investor route. I've also teamed up with an activist investor in the US. So we are putting all our work into the front end of the investing and just waiting for returns from there. It's much less stressful than trading!

xitian
Posts: 441
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 2:08 pm

Thu Oct 20, 2016 10:05 pm

Isn't long term investment fairly risky too if you're not carefully watching the portfolio? There's so much crap going on in these big companies that you have no idea what's going to happen next. Just look at the banks, Tescos, VW, Samsung to an extent...

Is an activist investor a bit like private equity then? I suppose an activist investor isn't buying purely to look for an exit plan but for the long term returns? And if you're on the board or own a controlling stake in the company then you have more knowledge about what it's doing and what its prospects are, or have an influence in that I guess.

User avatar
marksmeets302
Posts: 505
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm

Fri Oct 21, 2016 8:23 am

By owning pieces of many, many different companies the law of large numbers sets in. You will own shares in companies that committed fraud, but also in companies that have positive surprises. It all evens out. I agree with Peter that long term investing is much less stressful.

andyfuller
Posts: 4618
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm

Fri Oct 21, 2016 9:23 am

xitian wrote:[I suppose I'm not necessarily looking for automated. I'd just be looking for relatively hands-off or unmanaged. Basically I don't want to have to be on the button ready to sell within seconds if some kind of news breaks which I need to react to. However I'd still like to have a sizeable portfolio (in value regardless of what it's formed of) with close to zero risk.

...

I think the only way to achieve low risk but maintain any sort of return is to either: have massive diversification (i.e. stat arb) with automation, or be manually trading and sitting at the computer all day.
I would say it sounds like you want long term investing not automation and/or sitting at the computer all day. Both of those sound very short term and high risk - the opposite of what you think they currently are.
xitian wrote:Isn't long term investment fairly risky too if you're not carefully watching the portfolio?
Long term investing is the least risky imo. I would suggest the opposite of watching the portfolio carefully for long term investing - the idea is to buy and hold not buy and constantly be checking and reacting to every bit of news. Doing that is likely to damage your portfolio very badly over the long term.
xitian wrote:Is an activist investor a bit like private equity then? I suppose an activist investor isn't buying purely to look for an exit plan but for the long term returns?
Activists from my experience tend to be looking more short/medium term than long term. They see something they think isn't being done correctly and look to get it corrected and make their money that way. One of the most well known being Carl Icahn.

This episode of the Bottom Line was on just last night:

Activist Investors

Are activist investors good or bad for the firms they target? They hunt down companies they think are underperforming. They buy a stake in the business, then lobby for change. Critics say activists want to make a fast buck and then head for the exit. But you could regard these investors as doing a valuable service - challenging poorly performing company boards and making more profit for shareholders. Top UK names like Rolls Royce and John Menzies have been affected. Explore the world of activist investors with Evan Davis. Joining him will be: activist investor, Harlan Zimmerman, senior partner at Cevian Capital; Chris Walton, a company chairman and non-executive director; and Sacha Sadan, director of corporate governance at Legal and General Investment Management.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07z728y

I also listen to all the Motley Fool Podcasts - highly recommend them if you are interested in long term investing:

http://www.fool.com/podcasts

Post Reply

Return to “Trading Financial markets”

  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest