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weemac
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marksmeets302 wrote:
Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:31 pm
megarain wrote:
Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:49 pm
Plus I have no idea what my edge is in this trade.
Which is why Kelly is useless in these markets.
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megarain
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I dont really want to side-track, but, kelly has no use for me on bet exchange betting.

I just allocate a bank, and pretty much expose all of it .. just relying on experience to manage.

The scale limits, are as Peter previously mentioned .. if a mkt has a turnover of $25m, and I am already doing a chunk of that .. its hard to go much more (at least, without having a significant impact on EV)

//

On index futures, its v likely you are right. I hadn't really thought about it, as I dont use kelly on a day to day basis, just know what its about.

The big thing, is working out how much per unit, to short an index. $4 per index point, for 100k bank, is v similar to what I placed - so, I am in the ball-park.

Which is fine etc.

Thx
weemac
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megarain wrote:
Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:10 pm
I am intrigued by what portion of kelly, people think a trader/gambler should allocate to an index short.
Twice since then you've refuted Kelly. So why did you ask about (pro)portion of Kelly in the first place?

I'm totally confused by all this.

I'm out.
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megarain
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Yeah, sorry the first line was confusing.

I should have said, what portion of a bank, not kelly.
weemac
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2%
weemac
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Up 31 points already.
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megarain
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Dow currently up 1100 since my short, and S&P up 100 points.

Done my 2% .. and closed position.
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marksmeets302
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megarain wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:44 pm
Dow currently up 1100 since my short, and S&P up 100 points.

Done my 2% .. and closed position.
Since you give full disclosure I should follow up as well. Still holding on. Bets on stocks (flow traders, virtu) that profit from more volatility have gone up, short s&p futures have presented a loss. Overall still happy, and far from convinced we'll see any new highs soon. I'll get out of my shorts at 2700 in the s&p.
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Euler
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Bombing Syria may help your shorts?
weemac
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Euler wrote:
Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:40 pm
Bombing Syria may help your shorts?
"The stock market tends to rally whenever the U.S. begins military operations overseas."

https://www.barrons.com/articles/war-is ... 1492702379
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marksmeets302
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Euler wrote:
Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:40 pm
Bombing Syria may help your shorts?
I think it will at the very least bring more volatility. But two months ago the news couldn't get any better and probably everybody playing the markets was already long. There was nobody left to buy. Now we've corrected a bit, but since then the outlook has deteriorated as well. Then again, that could all be perception. Trump imposed duties on Chinese aluminum in 2017 and nobody cared. Now it's a big deal. It's hard to see things how they really are with the media constantly changing focus. My biggest concern is how the development of US debt is viewed. The current administrations budget control has already been compared to that of Juan Peron, the Argentinian president that ruined his country. If the world suddenly thinks hmm.. why am I getting only 2.7% interest on treasuries of a country with a 106% debt to gdp and a president that goes by the nickname king of debt... then those rates could go up very quickly.
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