Goldman deal values Facebook at $50bn

[Iron]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/news ... -50bn.html

I can't help but wonder if another dot com bubble is being inflated, only to burst...

The fact that Facebook, Google and Ebay are so dominant today is no guarantee of future success IMHO. That said, Betfair are naff and their customers seem unimpressed if this forum is anything to go by, but their virtual monopoly has remained unchallenged for years!

Jeff

[CaerMyrddin]

My guess is that this isn't a bubble, you're talknig about companies that deliver yelds, unlike the previous dotcom bubble!

So, that alledgely bright future that fueled the bubble has arrived?

[Iron]

I hope so.

But there aren't the same barriers to entry as with traditional businesses, so it's easier for the big fish to be challenged.

Also, new technologies could affect their profitability.

Jeff

My guess is that this isn't a bubble, you're talknig about companies that deliver yelds, unlike the previous dotcom bubble!

[Euler]

That seems to price in world domination which is never a good idea.

There will be competition to Facebook: -

http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2010/08/diaspora-luanch/

Just like Facebook was competition to other social networking sites.

http://techcrunch.com/2008/06/12/facebo ... l-network/

Friends reunited sold for £175m at the top: -

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8186840.stm

So, competition is always the joker in the pack when it comes to new ideas and the commercial exploitation of them. If somebody does something silly in a good market it can destroy a lot of economic value and I suspect that may occur more frequently with tech companies.

[Euler]

Of course Goldman probbaly couldn't care less about the value, just as long as they can make a turn on the deal.

[Euler]

This is impressive though. But I bet you facebook hasn't had a penny in revenue from me yet.

http://www.benphoster.com/facebook-user ... 2004-2010/

[CaerMyrddin]

I use facebook too, but I'm such a low profile user I keep getting inactivity mails.

I do wonder how there are so many people clicking the adds and that stuff so that they make a profit, as almost everyone I know don't turn a profit too..

That graph you posted just looks like our friend, the logistic function:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

It's clearly the kind of field it has any purpose on.

I'm very impressed with google btw. I googled something like "sylogistic curve" a literal translation to english on the name I know for logistic function and it immediatly came up with what I wanted. Impressive!

[Iron]

It's said that everyone is six handshakes away from everyone else on the planet (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_degrees_of_separation). Perhaps that explains the exponential growth.

Jeff

This is impressive though. But I bet you facebook hasn't had a penny in revenue from me yet.

http://www.benphoster.com/facebook-user ... 2004-2010/

[CaerMyrddin]

Not exponential, I'm afraid!

It's just the beginning of the curve I posted!

[Iron]

Hi CaerMyrddin,

From the Cambridge Advanced Learner's Dictionary:

exponential

describes a rate of increase which becomes quicker and quicker as the thing that increases becomes larger

According to that definition, surely Facebook's growth is exponential, as the curve in Peter's link gets steeper and steeper with time.

Jeff

Not exponential, I'm afraid!

[CaerMyrddin]

Yes, it's exponential. By now

[Euler]

Five reasons why i'm not buying facebook

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/01/ ... -facebook/

[Euler]

I saw this peice in the standard while on the train out of London last night.

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/markets/a ... acebook.do

[Iron]

Bono is doing quite nicely out of Facebook:

http://www.torontosun.com/entertainment ... story.html

Jeff

[Euler]

Facebook fatigue sets in for 100,000 Brits: Users bored with site deactivate accounts amid privacy fears

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... fears.html