Inflation

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Iron
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Even a blind squirrel occasionally stumbled across some nuts in the dark.

Tell you what - I'll acknowledge he was right on this occasion if you acknowledge that he usually gets it wrong! ;) *waits for hell to freeze over*

Jeff
mulberryhawk wrote:I would have thought the UK inflation rate of 2.2% in line with (actually ) the goveners expectations
mulberryhawk
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People in glass houses and all that comes to mind.....I seem to remember someone saying they wouldent touch treasuries with "a barge pole" which struck me as somewhat odd coming from a trend follower.

It seems you and Merv may have more in common than you think :o
Iron
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Do these little barbs really serve any useful purpose? :)

Jeff
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superfrank
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The central banks are desperately trying to generate inflation but the forces of deleveraging are so strong they struggle to create much despite massive printing as Jeff says.

Treasuries are only defying gravity because the BoE is buying them.

Whatever happened to free markets?
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superfrank
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A racing analogy:

2 horse race: the fav, Bond Yields, is trading at 1.3 and the other horse is called Bond Prices.

however, Bond Yields doesn't like soft ground and it's started raining heavily, and it's gone to post badly, whereas Bond Prices loves softer ground and has gone to post really nicely.

people start laying Bond Yields and backing Bond Prices... but the BoE has a Betfair account into which it can deposit unlimited amounts of funny money. the BoE starts backing Bond Yields with millions preventing a drift and forcing the price (yield) down even more.

Bond Yields then starts playing up at the start...

the problem for the BoE is that, sooner or later, the race is gonna start.
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Euler
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Hyperinflation Can't Happen Because Deleveraging Has Only Begun

http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperinf ... th-2012-10
spreadbetting
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Ferru123 wrote:Do these little barbs really serve any useful purpose? :)

Jeff
I guess only you can answer that, Jeff.
Ferru123 wrote:
For some reason, you remind me of those wise folk who once regarded the Titanic as an unsinkable ship! :lol:

Jeff
Iron
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Any chance we can return to the topic at hand please?

What I like about this forum is that there is generally very little in the way of outright hostility or unpleasant putdowns.

Yes, I let myself rise to Mulberry's bate, when I should have just ignored it. What can I say? I'm human. :lol: :oops:

Jeff
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superfrank
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Euler wrote:Hyperinflation Can't Happen Because Deleveraging Has Only Begun

http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperinf ... th-2012-10
Bubbles, and yes, that includes credit bubbles, have their own internal dynamics: they MUST pop when they reach critical mass.
Trying to prevent the pop, or even increase that mass, is futile. And even though that may be more about physics than about finance, why it is so hard to understand is beyond me. The deleveraging, a.k.a. debt deflation, has hardly begun, and it for now remains largely hidden behind a veil of QEs. That doesn't negate the fact that ultimately QE is powerless to stop it, even as it sure manages to fool a lot of people into thinking it can.
'couldn't agree more with the above, and i agree that hyperinflation is not likely in the short-term.

but it all begs the question - why are central banks trying to prevent the inevitable (and causing mass market distortion and malinvestment with QE)?

the reason, imho, is that they only care about the short-term (although their job is supposed to be the opposite). they figure that if they can just keep the bubbles inflated then things will be ok for their masters (private banks + rich). i don't think they have a clue about how to create a stable long-term financial environment, and i don't think they care - that will be someone else's problem.
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Euler
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Guess what I am researching at the moment!

Believe the hype in hyperinflation

http://timharford.com/2012/10/believe-t ... inflation/
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superfrank
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Euler wrote:Guess what I am researching at the moment!

Believe the hype in hyperinflation

http://timharford.com/2012/10/believe-t ... inflation/
Despite fringe commentators shrieking about imminent hyperinflation, it has failed to appear.
it was a few "fringe commentators" that warned of the consequences of property and credit bubbles and predicted the credit crunch. the mainstream commentators (and governments and financial authorities) ridiculed these people and promised us that the bubbles weren't bubbles and that asset prices and debt could continue to rise forever - classic "it's different this time" bs.
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Euler
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Alliance Bernstein whitepaper (April 2010): Deflating Inflation - Redefining the Inflation-Resistant Portfolio

https://www.alliancebernstein.com/CmsOb ... ckbook.pdf
Iron
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Shock jump in UK inflation to 2.7pc - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... 2.7pc.html
mulberryhawk wrote:erily quiet on here of late, all the hyperinflationists must be off stocking up on gold guns and ammo :roll:
mulberryhawk
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hope u stocked up on guns and bullets jeff :lol:
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Euler
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Some bedtime reading: -

Monetary regimes and inflation - Peter Bernholz

http://www.goldonomic.com/Monetary_regi ... lation.pdf
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