An alternative to Betfair?

Long, short, Bitcoin, forex - Plenty of alternate market disuccsion.
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Iron
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I don't understand why people bet on virtual racing and play on casino machines. OK, some people might find it fun, but I can think of less expensive ways of enjoying myself!

I was in my bookie this morning, and a guy was swearing at the casino machine. Did he think that the bookie, in their infinite benevolence, had installed a machine whose odds weren't stacked heavily in the house's favour?!?

Jeff
Euler wrote:When I started doing the football pools when I was young. I realised that a lot of people used no skill at all to make thier selections.
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jimrobo
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a lot more is stacked against you in forex. the price informtion on a lot of charting is not real time so retail banks have a massive speed advantage over you. Forex is not an exchange so the price you see is not the price you get filled on, so as well as being behind the banks you also have to be several pips in profit before you are actually in profit according to the price you are seeing in your charts. Unless you have level 2 access you have no idea what orders are placed at what prices and the larger institutions can see orders.

It is literally like you trading the one click screen on betfair with a 5 second refresh against peter with a ladder, FMD and a 200ms refresh.

What I am saying is if someone can consistently make money on a product that is probability wise stacked against them then on a product where it is a level playing field over a long term period they will make more money.

I'm not having a go at forex I am just saying why the professionals I know do not consider forex a professional trading product for a standard retail trader.
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Iron
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jimrobo wrote:a lot more is stacked against you in forex. the price informtion on a lot of charting is not real time so retail banks have a massive speed advantage over you
It's true that the information you get isn't 100% real time. But if you're trading on the 5 or 15 minute charts, the fact that you might be a second or two behind the action is of no consequence IMHO.
jimrobo wrote:Forex is not an exchange so the price you see is not the price you get filled on, so as well as being behind the banks you also have to be several pips in profit before you are actually in profit according to the price you are seeing in your charts.
That's not the case with all currency pairs - you can trade EUR/USD with a 1 pip spread, for example. And if you're trading a larger timeframe (say 1 hour plus), the spread is neither here nor there.
jimrobo wrote:Unless you have level 2 access you have no idea what orders are placed at what prices and the larger institutions can see orders.
I could probably get level 2 information with Pro Spreads, but I don't need to know about the wom. All the information you need is contained in the price action.
jimrobo wrote:I'm not having a go at forex I am just saying why the professionals I know do not consider forex a professional trading product for a standard retail trader.
I beg to differ from them, having corresponded with professional Forex traders and used a Forex trading room, full of full-time pros.

Jeff
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hgodden
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All markets will vary a lot and will differ according to the market participants, aside from any technical differences. Just look at the difference between trading UK and US racing
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jimrobo
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I'm not getting into this anymore as I am trading...professionally!

Good luck Jeff!
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Iron
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True, but the psychological dynamics that underpin market behaviour are uniform across all markets IMHO.

If the price of a horse rises, people may assume someone knows something. Ditto if the price of Sainsbury's shares rise. :)

Jeff
hgodden wrote:All markets will vary a lot and will differ according to the market participants, aside from any technical differences. Just look at the difference between trading UK and US racing
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JollyGreen
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My 2 pennies worth.

I do not trade FOREX, I tried after becoming friendly with a Professional Trader from the City. I could not get it to work no matter what I tried. After many years of professionally trading the horses on Betfair I met another City trader who had retired through ill health and setup a new business totally unrelated to the markets. He wanted to learn about Betfair trading so we met up and exhanged ideas. He told me a similar tale to that mentioned by Jimrobo. The professional traders (Institutions) will have a huge advantage over you and therefore it would be an uphill struggle.

I also know Jimrobo, he is what you might call a shrewd cookie. If he is not trading Forex for the reasons he has given then it is 1.01 he is on the money :D
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Iron
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Hi JollyGreen

You could be right about Forex. But although I've yet to profit consistently, my research into the subject tells me it is crackable. I could be wrong - in a few months' time, I'll either admit as much, or say I was right! :)

I think the reason most people fail with Forex is because their approach is wrong - either their psychological approach or how they make their selections. There was a reality TV programme a while back, where aspiring traders were sent to work in the City. They made their selections using crude fundamental analysis, and they were under pressure to constantly have their money in the market, whether there were any good opportunities or not. Unsurprisingly, they didn't do well. Compare that to the Turtle experiment (http://www.amazon.co.uk/Complete-Turtle ... 0061241709), where the novice traders made over $120 million, using simple trend following.

Jeff
JollyGreen wrote:My 2 pennies worth.

I do not trade FOREX, I tried after becoming friendly with a Professional Trader from the City. I could not get it to work no matter what I tried. After many years of professionally trading the horses on Betfair I met another City trader who had retired through ill health and setup a new business totally unrelated to the markets. He wanted to learn about Betfair trading so we met up and exhanged ideas. He told me a similar tale to that mentioned by Jimrobo. The professional traders (Institutions) will have a huge advantage over you and therefore it would be an uphill struggle.

I also know Jimrobo, he is what you might call a shrewd cookie. If he is not trading Forex for the reasons he has given then it is 1.01 he is on the money :D
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jimrobo
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praise from a true pro! :)
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JollyGreen
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jimrobo wrote:praise from a true pro! :)
:lol: We should visit that sarnie shop again mate...they did make a cracking Bacon sandwich!!
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jimrobo
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thats true although I am only allowed to visit on saturday mornings these days on my fitness regime!
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LeTiss
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Euler wrote:A couple of Eureka moments for me in the markets.

(1) When I started doing the football pools when I was young. I realised that a lot of people used no skill at all to make thier selections.

(2) The fact that gamblers thought, because something had happened a lot in the past it was thought to be more likely in the future.
I just saw an advert for the Football Pools, Peter - it reminded me of this post from 2/3 years back

Do you know anybody who still does the Pools?

Do you think the systems you developed back then would still work on today's Pools?
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