An alternative to Betfair?

Long, short, Bitcoin, forex - Plenty of alternate market disuccsion.
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Iron
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Have a look at the videos in this ad, which feature a trading platform with a ladder:

http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/DOW-FTSE-Scalping ... 3a636dc30e

From what I can tell 'Bid Qty' and 'Ask Qty' are basically the same as back and lay order volumes.

This is the platform the guy is using (or a variation thereof):

http://www.traderslog.com/tradingsimulator/

Jeff
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Euler
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

Have a look at these guys: -

http://www.prospreads.com/
Iron
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This is a guide to the definitions used in relation to this type of market view:

http://daytrading.about.com/od/daytradi ... aDefin.htm

BTW, it turns out the system in the ad doesn't utilize the bid/ask information.

Jeff
Euler wrote:Have a look at these guys: -

http://www.prospreads.com/
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jimrobo
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peter, do you use prospreads as well?
hgodden
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With all the multitude of different financial markets out there, would it be feasible to find windows of opportunities in certain markets where you could be highly confident that the market would likely to be stable enough to allow you to, for that period of time, simply scalp a few ticks, as you might for instance a highly liquid and stable Cheltenham market? For instance during pockets of time when no financial results were to be announced or no large pressures that should affect prices?
Iron
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Some people do enter the market at points when they have a high probability of success, and aim for a set number of pips.

I prefer to let the market tell me when to exit a trade, however. If I exit at an arbitrary target, then I'm not sure that, over 10,000 trades, my losses will outweigh my gains. That said, I know highly successful traders who do use that approach.

The other reason I prefer to use the trend following approach is that it's tried and tested, and used by some of the most successful traders in the world (including John W Henry, owner of Liverpool FC - see http://www.turtletrader.com/trader-henry.html). Basically, it relies on the fact that trends are self-perpetuating, due to market psychology (the irrational herd-like behavior that also causes people back steamers and favourites on Betfair).

BTW, with Prospreads, the figures you see relate to the market as a whole, not just to their clients. So it might be very similar to trading on Betfair. There are some differences between Betfair and financial markets, but I maintain that they are very similar, in that they are driven by the same human emotions, such as greed and fear.

Jeff
hgodden wrote:With all the multitude of different financial markets out there, would it be feasible to find windows of opportunities in certain markets where you could be highly confident that the market would likely to be stable enough to allow you to, for that period of time, simply scalp a few ticks, as you might for instance a highly liquid and stable Cheltenham market? For instance during pockets of time when no financial results were to be announced or no large pressures that should affect prices?
Iron
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Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

PS If anyone's interested in reading about the financial markets, I'd recommend the following books:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Trading-Chaos-T ... 0471463086

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Trend-Following ... 207&sr=1-1

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Complete-Turtle ... 207&sr=1-3

The above books contain solid, proven techniques IMHO, and also talk about the psychology of trading.

Jeff
Iron
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You can get a free dummy account and access to Metatrader (charting software) using this link:

http://www.gcitrading.com/mtdemo.htm

Jeff
Iron
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If you're trading intra-day, I'd always look at this link before entering a trade, as it makes sure I'm out of the market when there are significant news announcements:

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

Jeff
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Euler
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hgodden wrote:With all the multitude of different financial markets out there, would it be feasible to find windows of opportunities in certain markets where you could be highly confident that the market would likely to be stable enough to allow you to, for that period of time, simply scalp a few ticks, as you might for instance a highly liquid and stable Cheltenham market? For instance during pockets of time when no financial results were to be announced or no large pressures that should affect prices?
The main differences between Betfair and financial markets are (IMHO): -

(1) Transaction costs, lower on Betfair.
(2) All Betfair markets are framed at 100%, that doesn't happen on financials.

I'd still favour spread betting on Betfair than on financials but if you have done well on Betfair then it's worth looking at financials. My main wealth is invested though in financials not short term traded.
Iron
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Euler wrote: (1) Transaction costs, lower on Betfair.
Hi Peter

Not sure I'd agree, particularly if you're paying the premium charge.

If you're trading EUR/USD, the spread is just 1 pip with Capital Spreads.
Euler wrote:(2) All Betfair markets are framed at 100%, that doesn't happen on financials.
True, but to what extent does that help your trading? If you were trading a particular horse, would you focus purely on what's happening with that horse, or would you look at other horses?
Euler wrote:I'd still favour spread betting on Betfair
I think the main advantages of Betfair are that:

A. You can act as a market maker by offering money to the market, rather than taking the available price.

B. The number of races per day gives a skilled trader the opportunity to rapidly grow their bank.

But with the financial markets, as there's virtually unlimited liquidity, the potential earnings are higher.

And IMHO, financial markets and Betfair markets are fundamentally similar in the way they operate. This quote (by John W Henry) applies as much to Betfair as to the financial markets:

I don’t believe that I am the only person who cannot predict future prices. No one consistently can predict anything, especially investors. Prices, not investors, predict the future. Despite this, investors hope or believe that they can predict the future, or someone else can. ... We rely on the fact that other investors are convinced that they can predict the future, and I believe that’s where our profits come from. I believe it’s that simple.

Jeff
Iron
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Today's oil chart is a case in point.

It looks a lot like a horse that drifted and drifted, only to steam when the market realised it had over-reacted.

Jeff
Ferru123 wrote:
And IMHO, financial markets and Betfair markets are fundamentally similar in the way they operate.

Jeff
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Euler
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The downside of Betfair is that you can't scale very much, but it's usually more than enough for most people. On financials you only start running into issues if you start working in hundreds of millions or billions.

I think you are 100% wrong on the predicting future element. You can predict the future, not exactly, but enough to make sound rational judgements and profit from them. People who make no attempt and working out what should be the true underlying value of something will always struggle as all they are doing is trying to second guess somebody else's move and that is pretty unpredictable.
Iron
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Euler wrote:The downside of Betfair is that you can't scale very much, but it's usually more than enough for most people.
True.
Euler wrote:I think you are 100% wrong on the predicting future element. You can predict the future, not exactly, but enough to make sound rational judgements and profit from them.
I think it depends on what you mean by 'predict'. You can't say what will definitely happen, but I agree that a select few people can make money from fundamental analysis.
Euler wrote:People who make no attempt and working out what should be the true underlying value of something will always struggle as all they are doing is trying to second guess somebody else's move and that is pretty unpredictable.
Trend followers (which is what Henry is) admit that they cannot predict where the market will go. In fact, two thirds of their trades lose money.

However, the third of trades that are successful pay for the unsuccessful trends. The reason is that trends self-perpetuate due to crowd psychology. Because of this, if you were to map trends on a Bell Curve, you wouldn't see a normal distribution pattern. Instead, you'd have what's called kurtosis - a fat right tail - meaning that the longer trends are longer than you would expect. Therefore, by cutting their losses and letting their profits run, trend following hedge funds can make about 20% per annum on average.

Jeff
PeterLe
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Hi Jeff,

The problem I found with Forex is that when I was using a dummy account, I made something like £15K in 10 days (using the BlackDog strategy)..I though I had found the Holy Grail and then on the 11 day I lost it!

It scared me. The market moved so fast :o (Yes I know I could have had stop losses etc, but I didnt), whereas Betfair, yes it sometimes goes against you, but moves so slow by comparison. I dont think I would ever feel relaxed trading these markets

The other point is, when you enter the Forex arena (or whatever you are trading) you are up against TOP professionals who have every tool at their disposal, much tougher in my opinion.

Why not just focus on Betfair and be the best you can be. Yes it's a much smaller pond, but still plenty of fish? The top traders on here must be making £60K - £100K year easily, probably more for a few. Pound for Pound (net of tax) thats more than the prime Minister!

Regards
Peter
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