UK Economy

[superfrank]

it's interesting how much sterling has fallen since Carney was named as Merv's replacement. he's expected do the same as King (print and let inflation rip) but on steroids to save the banks, house prices and property developers while the real economy burns.

we're always told that a weak currency is good for exports, but sterling has been devalued between 20 and 40% against most currencies since the start of the financial crisis... and how much have exports risen? Answer: they haven't risen at all.

meanwhile the price of all imported goods and energy has risen substantially (and real inflation is much higher than the official fiddled figures). King has failed on an epic scale (both pre and post-credit crunch) and they are replacing him with a bloke who is gonna pursue the same failed policies but with more vigour.

the UK is fooked and plenty of people are now speculating that we will be the first to go pop; hence sterling's renewed descent.

[steven1976]

edit to, what are the main uk exports?

[superfrank]

am not sure, i think it's a fair mix of things rather than a few key areas.

tbf we do export quite a bit of stuff, it's just that other countries have grown their exports much quicker and our imports continue to dwarf the exports.

with the decline of North Sea oil we are also now a net importer of energy. Norway had the same oil but chose to invest the proceeds for the long term rather than p1ss it up the wall as we did!

[staker72]

Britain is normally counted as the 5th largest exporter of manufactured goods, I believe we are the second largest aerospace manufacturer (USA 1st of course)
I am not sure the pound has declined quite as much as pople think. Many years ago I used to import a bit from USA and we used a rule of thumb of 1.64 dollar/pound.
I've just checked and it's currently 1.55 What I think people tend to look at is a couple of years ago the dollar fell to 2 to the pound and everybody uses this to claim big changes.
The Euros a different matter but I seem to remember when the European banking crisis spread to UK the pound was down to 1.1 and again it is now 1.15

All major currencies have had their highs and lows over the last 2-3 years for various reasons but the Pound is still within it's normal range. However journo's like headlines and 'everything normal' doesn't look as good as excited hyperbole about an odd % movement.

[Iron]

I think Jim Rogers nicely sums up the state we're in: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... 8wLlWJTh7o

[superfrank]

I am not sure the pound has declined quite as much as pople think.

http://www.google.co.uk/finance?chdnp=1 ... qj2wAP41AE

[Iron]

This says it all about where we're at as a country: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 01329.html

Jeff

[steven1976]

Britain is normally counted as the 5th largest exporter of manufactured goods, I believe we are the second largest aerospace manufacturer (USA 1st of course)
I am not sure the pound has declined quite as much as pople think. Many years ago I used to import a bit from USA and we used a rule of thumb of 1.64 dollar/pound.
I've just checked and it's currently 1.55 What I think people tend to look at is a couple of years ago the dollar fell to 2 to the pound and everybody uses this to claim big changes.
The Euros a different matter but I seem to remember when the European banking crisis spread to UK the pound was down to 1.1 and again it is now 1.15

All major currencies have had their highs and lows over the last 2-3 years for various reasons but the Pound is still within it's normal range. However journo's like headlines and 'everything normal' doesn't look as good as excited hyperbole about an odd % movement.

Im surprised about britain being so high up the list for manufactured goods. I actually thought that finance was the main export we had these days which although many hate them, bankers are the ones bringing a lot of money into the pot.

In regards to the currency, we do all like to remember the good times when we went on holiday and it was cheap as chips getting 2-1 for example on the US dollar. I think against the dollar it actually went in to 1.36 briefly and then steadily went back to 1. 6 ish for much of the past few years.

[superfrank]

I actually thought that finance was the main export we had these days which although many hate them, bankers are the ones bringing a lot of money into the pot.

no they don't. most of that is from the insurance industry, not banking.

and the pot is very much worse than empty - thanks to banksters and their mates.

[Iron]

We've just been downgraded to AA1 by Moody's. The markets will be interesting next week...

Jeff

[Golfer]

It's ironic, in a past life I was chasing Moody's for outstanding receivables.

It's going to be an impossible budget for the government!

[Iron]

Moody’s: Why Britain lost its AAA rating - http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehous ... aa-rating/

[Euler]

I'm half tempted to go on the campaign trail in the next election to try and force policitians to confront the debt situation.

I just fear that they will all talk about how they are going to make things better without any credible plan and in an attempt to address the situation they may use tax rather than cutting out the crap from the system. That would end up making things worse. We need people to wake up a bit. I laugh when I read story about how government cuts have made the situation worse, how niave can people be. Time to get the facts into the public eye and make some tough decisions.

[Iron]

I'm half tempted to go on the campaign trail in the next election to try and force policitians to confront the debt situation.

Why not see if you can get selected as a UKIP candidate, given that they are the nearest thing we have to a Tea Party?

I reckon they could be Britain's third largest party after the election.

I just fear that they will all talk about how they are going to make things better without any credible plan and in an attempt to address the situation they may use tax rather than cutting out the crap from the system.

Possibly.

Tax increases will be deeply unpopular, but so would cuts.

I think Osborne is trying to put off the really tough decisions till after the next elections, as his priority is to be re-elected and he knows that the level of cuts needed would cause electoral meltdown (if the Lib Dems even allowed it to happen).

I agree about the need for a mature debate. I was debating the economic situation the other day with a Guardian reader, and he had no idea of how bad things are. That's not surprising, given that the Guardian (and their broadcasting arm, the BBC) don't want people to think 'If we carry on spending like this, we're screwed as a nation!'.

Jeff

[superfrank]

I'm half tempted to go on the campaign trail in the next election to try and force policitians to confront the debt situation.

I just fear that they will all talk about how they are going to make things better without any credible plan and in an attempt to address the situation they may use tax rather than cutting out the crap from the system. That would end up making things worse. We need people to wake up a bit. I laugh when I read story about how government cuts have made the situation worse, how niave can people be. Time to get the facts into the public eye and make some tough decisions.

it's a travesty how the crisis is being portrayed by the mainstream media in this country - it's a conspiracy imho designed to get another clueless left-wing government into power. the tories have also been pathetic in their response because they care more about their own political careers than they care about the country. Maggie in 79 came in with the country in crisis and simply did what was required, popular or not.

countries need to adjust (dramatically in most cases) to living within their means, and accept that growth via credit alone was/is unsustainable.

if your policy is as you described above Euler then you can count on my vote!

ps. the investment banks obviously knew that the downgrade was coming - hence the plunge in sterling over the last 2 weeks.