Apple Inc : APPL

[steven1976]

Anyone think Apples stock is a little over valued at the moment? Up 70% this year and the most valuable company of all time. I understand they are a great brand but with a relatively small range of products they really have to stay on the ball to be offering more than similar products in the future.

[Euler]

I was thinking of shorting it, but I learnt a tough lesson during the dot com boom that you can be 100% right and still lose money. So it will be all about timing it IMHO.

[andyfuller]

I fully agree, they have begun to stagnate in terms of innovation. As Peter says, all about the timing and I don't think now is the time personally.

[superfrank]

52 wk-high 702.10
52 wk-low 363.57

Apple's value has roughly doubled in 10 months - it's more to do with all the excess money sloshing around the system that needs to find a home rather than Apple's prospects imho.

the correction in May/June would give cause for hope in shorting, but i agree that shorting atm would be dangerous (it's the value of money that's going down as much as the value of companies going up).

[jimrobo]

ipad mini about to be released, new imacs in the pipeline, not to mention the apple tv set and the new ipad in january! Plus iphone5 sales through the roof. Not a good time to short apple until there is some slight negative news.

[superfrank]

ipad mini about to be released, new imacs in the pipeline, not to mention the apple tv set and the new ipad in january! Plus iphone5 sales through the roof. Not a good time to short apple until there is some slight negative news.

but the competition is catching up (Android devices especially are gaining market share as iOS declines).

[Euler]

Apple are starting to make a few errors. I don't think iPhone 5 will be as popular as it is at the moment. Lots of people waiting to upgrade, but once that's died down I think sales will become tougher.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-19664578

[andyfuller]

ipad mini about to be released, new imacs in the pipeline, not to mention the apple tv set and the new ipad in january! Plus iphone5 sales through the roof. Not a good time to short apple until there is some slight negative news.

New versions of iPads, macs and new versions of phones, one new thing being the TV set but is that really going to gain mass traction in a very well developed and competitive market?

The sales are still expanding of the iPads and phones but the market shares are falling. The bad press about google maps and their own maps is bad to see. The apple maps is terrible IMO and should never have been released as it is. Ditching the YouTube app as well is very annoying even if you can use the phone version for now.

They really do seem like a firm that is reaching its peak. Where are the brand new products coming from? There is only so many personal devices a person wants and needs.

For the share price to keep its growth in the medium term they need that next big product...

[Euler]

I am intrigued by Apple as a business. I remember really well sitting in a meeting in Houston in 1994 where there was a strategy discussion about Apple, Dell and Compaq. Apple was pretty much written off then, as was Dell but in fact it was probably one of the best buying opportunities in IT history.

We had a Newton in the room that day and were discussing the future of PDA's. But nobody could have guessed what happened from there. I did a presentation on how I thought the Internet could become the global 'dial tone' for future communications. Got that spot on but it still didn't help me identify the winners.

I reckon I know now what technology will be ubiquitous in ten years time, but I can't tell you at this moment who will profit from it. But I bet you people will be reminiscing on Apple at that point.

[jimrobo]

New versions of iPads, macs and new versions of phones, one new thing being the TV set but is that really going to gain mass traction in a very well developed and competitive market?

This was exactly the same sentiment when they launched the iphone. Everyone said its a saturated market and nokia has market dominance apple couldn't touch. In their first opening keynote on the iphone I remember they said they wanted to sell 10Million in a year. Roll the clock forward 6 years and Nokia is a company on the rocks and apple just sold 10Million iphones in their opening weekend of releasing the iphone5 alone. The tv set being a saturated and competitive market won;t scare apple. All the major tv manufacturers know its coming are already scared. Thats why they have rushed out their smart tv versions hoping to get an edge on apple.

2 things to note though if you are looking at shorting the stock. 1, today is option expirey day and potentially there may be a lot of sellers in the market and 2 there is an emerging thing called scuffgate where the black iphones5's are said to suffer from the chamferred edges scuffing. Many seem to be scuffed out of the box. If this emerges as something major then that could have a short term impact on the share price. It may turn out to be a storm in a teacup but I saw a post from a german phone shop saying they opened 30 iphones and they all had scuffs. Ifixit also noted in their teardown they were easily able to scuff the affected area with a coin. White iphones are unaffected as the chamfered adges arent annodised like the black ones.

2 things to note

[Euler]

I love what Apple have done and I use a lot of Apple devices now which was just not a prospect a few years ago, but I think history could be about to repeat itself.

Their biggest strength is the amount of apps, that will stop some people from switching. But have a look at these two adverts many years apart.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... f5-Prx19ZM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dm7gLKZc ... ature=plcp

I think the faster lifecycle of competitors will eventually erode their position. I'm still on the lookout for a shorting opportunity.

[steven1976]

Thought this was quite good.

[PeterLe]

Thought this was quite good.

Ha ha funny!

[jimrobo]

the maps are a major fail!

Luckily google maps are releasing their maps as a standalone app you can download. Its already been submitted for the app store according to an article I read over the weekend.

[andyfuller]

What happens when you stick an iPhone 5 to the floor:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... loor-.html

The video is quite amusing, love how people try to look innocent loitering around then casual bend down to pick it up thinking no one is watching