Santa Claus Rally

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superfrank
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do you think we'll get one this year?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Claus_rally

in the past i can remember the period between Christmas and New Year being a very good time to trade long (light volume obviously, little news, the big hitters on a Caribbean beach and seemingly little selling pressure) - it obviously depends on what's happened to the markets just before Christmas, but i'll be keeping an eye out for a post-Christmas bonus.
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Euler
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

I can't see one happening this year! You never know, the EU may actually agree something concrete and we could see a rally but then Betfair may drop the PC. Both are equally unlikley!
Iron
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superfrank wrote:light volume obviously, little news, the big hitters on a Caribbean beach and seemingly little selling pressure
But isn't the risk with light volume that you don't know what you're going to get, as the price could go flying about all over the place (whether on Betfair or the financials)?

Jeff
andyfuller
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So a tweet last night saying:

"December typically great month for the FTSE100. But not mid-month. Since 1997, index rose just 5 times out of 14 tries from Dec 9-14"
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superfrank
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light volume in financials usually signals low volatility.
Iron
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I see to remember the FTSE drifting in the few minutes before the close for Christmas last year (or it could have been the close for the New Year), no doubt so some traders could secure their bonuses...

Jeff
Iron
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You sure?

There was talk in the summer about how the sharp movements of the financial markets could have been due to so many traders being on holiday.

And on Betfair, it's significant that the lower volume markets tend to exhibit more volitility.

That said, roaring trends are generally associated with higher volumes - see http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2006/07/ ... hould.html

Jeff
superfrank wrote:light volume in financials usually signals low volatility.
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superfrank
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I just checked the ftse performance last December.

there was a big rally last year, but the market fell in the Christmas to New Year period (it must have been other years I remembered!).
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andyfuller
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That time of the year again:
Santa_Rally.png
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Iron
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It might be different this year though, given that Mark Carney is indicating that the recent economic growth figures will result in less QE.

Jeff
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