Japan

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superfrank
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all that radiation must have got into the drinking water...

Japan's latest stimulus: What it means and will it work?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22023456
The central bank has said that it will increase its purchase of government bonds by 50 trillion yen ($520bn; £350bn) per year.

To put that in perspective, it is the equivalent of about 10% of Japan's annual gross domestic product (GDP).
...
Another key move that it made was announcing that it will now buy bonds with maturities of as much as 40 years, which some analysts say is an outright funding of the government by the bank.
...
The central bank also said that it would buy relatively riskier assets such as exchange-traded funds and real-estate investment trusts.
...
But while the intent of triggering inflation and spurring economic growth is all good [ :shock: ], like with everything else, there is a flip side attached to it.
so Japan follows the US and UK into the dream world of growth stimulation by throwing printed money at assets, only with Japan it's now on steroids.

Japan's public debt is already at 230% of GDP and it will probably hit 500% of GDP before this blows up - this size of debt, as with the UK, US and EZ cannot, and will not, ever be repaid.

everyone is still trying to solve debt problems with more debt - the cure for a snake bite is anti-venom, not more venom.
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Euler
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I don't understand why these economies just don't restructure, that would sort the issues but printing money doesn't solve a thing.
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superfrank
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Euler wrote:I don't understand why these economies just don't restructure, that would sort the issues but printing money doesn't solve a thing.
i think it's because that would require time, tough decisions and harsh medicine - and no one seems to have the stomach for that anymore. they are just looking for short-term growth with crazy, reckless solutions that will probably have dire long-term consequences.

personally i think many of the policymakers (such as Bernanke and the economist Krugman) are still in denial about pre-crisis growth, and seem to think that economies can prosper via debt, asset price growth and consumer spending.
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gazuty
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History repeats.

From THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE
by JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES, C.B.

http://www.gutenberg.org/files/15776/15 ... 5776-h.htm

Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth. Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become "profiteers,", who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery.

Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.

In the latter stages of the war all the belligerent governments practised, from necessity or incompetence, what a Bolshevist might have done from design. Even now, when the war is over, most of them continue out of weakness the same malpractices. But further, the Governments of Europe, being many of them at this moment reckless in their methods as well as weak, seek to direct on to a class known as "profiteers" the popular indignation against the more obvious consequences of their vicious methods. These "profiteers" are, broadly speaking, the entrepreneur class of capitalists, that is to say, the active and constructive element in the whole capitalist society, who in a period of rapidly rising prices cannot help but get rich quick whether they wish it or desire it or not. If prices are continually rising, even trader who has purchased for stock or owns property and plant inevitably makes profits. By directing hatred against this class, therefore, the European Governments are carrying a step further the fatal process which the subtle mind of Lenin had consciously conceived. The profiteers are a consequence and not a cause of rising prices. By combining a popular hatred of the class of entrepreneurs with the blow already given to social security by the violent and arbitrary disturbance of contract and of the established equilibrium of wealth which is the inevitable result of inflation, these Governments are fast rendering impossible a continuance of the social and economic order of the nineteenth century. But they have no plan for replacing it.

We are thus faced in Europe with the spectacle of an extraordinary weakness on the part of the great capitalist class, which has emerged from the industrial triumphs of the nineteenth century, and seemed a very few years ago our all-powerful master. The terror and personal timidity of the individuals of this class is now so great, their confidence in their place in society and in their necessity to the social organism so diminished, that they are the easy victims of intimidation. This was not so in England twenty-five years ago, any more than it is now in the United States. Then the capitalists believed in themselves, in their value to society, in the propriety of their continued existence in the full enjoyment of their riches and the unlimited exercise of their power. Now they tremble before every insult;—call them pro-Germans, international financiers, or profiteers, and they will give you any ransom you choose to ask not to speak of them so harshly. They allow themselves to be ruined and altogether undone by their own instruments, governments of their own making, and a press of which they are the proprietors. Perhaps it is historically true that no order of society ever perishes save by its own hand. In the complexer world of Western Europe the Immanent Will may achieve its ends more subtly and bring in the revolution no less inevitably through a Klotz or a George than by the intellectualisms, too ruthless and self-conscious for us, of the bloodthirsty philosophers of Russia.

The inflationism of the currency systems of Europe has proceeded to extraordinary lengths. The various belligerent Governments, unable, or too timid or too short-sighted to secure from loans or taxes the resources they required, have printed notes for the balance. In Russia and Austria-Hungary this process has reached a point where for the purposes of foreign trade the currency is practically valueless. The Polish mark can be bought for about three cents and the Austrian crown for less than two cents, but they cannot be sold at all. The German mark is worth less than four cents on the exchanges. In most of the other countries of Eastern and South-Eastern Europe the real position is nearly as bad. The currency of Italy has fallen to little more than a halt of its nominal value in spite of its being still subject to some degree of regulation; French currency maintains an uncertain market; and even sterling is seriously diminished in present value and impaired in its future prospects.
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superfrank
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Kyle Bass on Japan and Abenomics...
http://youtu.be/ZY6IEpKRA7Y?t=17s
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superfrank
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Why have young people in Japan stopped having sex?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/o ... CMP=twt_gu
45% of Japanese women aged 16-24 are ‘not interested in or despise sexual contact’ :shock:
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kelpie
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superfrank wrote:Why have young people in Japan stopped having sex?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/o ... CMP=twt_gu
45% of Japanese women aged 16-24 are ‘not interested in or despise sexual contact’ :shock:
55% do. i like those odds
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Euler
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Nice simple explanation on the Japanese deficit: -

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25910973
THENUTS
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So who went long usd/jpy 12months ago then ?
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superfrank
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Japan shares notch ninth day of gains
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32894840

what most people don't know is that the BOJ is buying huge amounts of stocks (via ETFs) with printed money on a regular basis to make it look like their mad policies are working.

from the Wall Street Journal:

BOJ Helps Tokyo Stocks to Soar
http://www.wsj.com/articles/boj-helps-t ... 1426065432

link via Google to get round the subscribe thing...
https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid ... Soar+-+WSJ

avoid Japan like the plague.
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marksmeets302
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A friend of mine is an analyst specializing in Japan. He's always been very bullish on that country, has lots of complex stories about why the only way is up. Even the debt to gdp ratio he can explain away. I usually shake my head, but to his credit I must say that he also rationalized having negative interest rates - several years ago. So maybe he's right about Japan as well.

But whether you believe the world will blow up or not, it doesn't really matter. Going against the central banks is suicide, trading in the same direction can be very profitable. It all boils down to luck if you can get out quick enough.
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superfrank
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agree with not trading against central banks and their asset price crusade but Japan is surely a disaster waiting to happen with mind boggling debt, extreme printing, a demographic timebomb waiting to go off and China, Korea etc. taking all their markets.

commodity prices are a far better guide to what's really happening in the global economy; shares prices are skewed by ultra-cheap money, printing and the general recovery delusion.
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