Japan

[marksmeets302]

A friend of mine is an analyst specializing in Japan. He's always been very bullish on that country, has lots of complex stories about why the only way is up. Even the debt to gdp ratio he can explain away. I usually shake my head, but to his credit I must say that he also rationalized having negative interest rates - several years ago. So maybe he's right about Japan as well.

But whether you believe the world will blow up or not, it doesn't really matter. Going against the central banks is suicide, trading in the same direction can be very profitable. It all boils down to luck if you can get out quick enough.

[superfrank]

agree with not trading against central banks and their asset price crusade but Japan is surely a disaster waiting to happen with mind boggling debt, extreme printing, a demographic timebomb waiting to go off and China, Korea etc. taking all their markets.

commodity prices are a far better guide to what's really happening in the global economy; shares prices are skewed by ultra-cheap money, printing and the general recovery delusion.