Markets overvalued?

[Euler]

Several pieces keep dropping into my inbox from various quarters talking about overvaluation.

I don't tend to have a view on the market as a whole, I only look at individual situations but this first piece caught my eye as it's based on Value Line that I use on a regular basis.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks ... 2013-08-14

Stumbled across this blog recently as well: -

http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.co.uk/

Newsletter is quite interesting

http://gallery.mailchimp.com/9cc4e575a1 ... sue_09.pdf

[superfrank]

i often watch CNBC (just to keep an eye on the news) while trading the close of the US cash markets and some of the stuff on there is pure comedy... it's a constant stream of "this market can go much higher", "cash on the sidelines" and "the great rotation out of bonds into stocks" (i'm sure all of it designed to drag in retail investors at another 'top').

even most CNBC commentators admit that it's the FED stuffing $85Bn a month into the market that has driven the rally, and nothing to do with real growth (confidence trickery is all they've got left).

if bond yields continue higher then it's game over for most govts - i don't think it will happen (short-term); and i suspect the taper will be printing $80Bn a month instead of $85Bn!.

'all completely unsustainable, as in 2007, but at least we had semi-free markets then.

[superfrank]

if bond yields continue higher then it's game over for most govts - i don't think it will happen (short-term); and i suspect the taper will be printing $80Bn a month instead of $85Bn!.

taper postponed (FED highlighting higher real interest rates) and S&P hits new highs!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24152993

i was only $5Bn out!! they know things are still royally f*cked and that the debt bubble will burst without printing.

[Euler]

They appear to be addicted to cheap money!

[Euler]

I been messing around looking to rising bond yeild plays for a while and will continue to do so. As inflation expectations are so low, it seems a sensible thing to do.

This was in my inbox this morning: -

http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/ ... d-Why.aspx

[superfrank]

Spot The Idiotic Central Banker Statement
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-1 ... -statement

[kelpie]

I trade the FTSE all the time. Absolutely overvalued and a correction is on the way.

But London still has to digest the momentum from the Santa Rally. This usually runs to the second or third week of Jan.

[kelpie]

I been messing around looking to rising bond yeild plays for a while and will continue to do so. As inflation expectations are so low, it seems a sensible thing to do.

This was in my inbox this morning: -

http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/ ... d-Why.aspx

Never pegged you as so conservative!!

7% locked in for five years. Really?

[superfrank]

I trade the FTSE all the time. Absolutely overvalued and a correction is on the way.

But London still has to digest the momentum from the Santa Rally. This usually runs to the second or third week of Jan.

The FTSE has a lot of big miners in it (not really British companies just listed in London) and the FTSE 100 underperformed other markets last year on the back of weak commodity prices... here's an interesting chart showing how QE1 and 2 benefitted both stock and commodities, but that QE3 only benefitted stocks:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-1 ... rt-edwards

suggests to me that real economies aren't getting any better, just central bank driven gains for the rich.