Anton Kreil - Institute of trading.

[Naffman]

might i suggest that geff and oscar pm each other,
reading this reminds me why i dont watch soaps, you both sound like 2 little spoiled bitches,
get a life,,

Nothing wrong with a bit of banter.

If you are going to build up a public profile like that and then start whoring yourself out, trying to lure 8-10 men a month back to a hotel for some sort of £300 a pop trading gang bang

This made me

[Iron]

I like this tweet I just saw from Mr Kriel:

'Looking ahead this sets the tone for next years General Election. Labour will win & Public Spending will get out of control. I'm outta here.'

[Iron]

He adds:

'I am now genuinely scared for the prospects of the UK Economy for the first time since 2007. We have recovered but the only way seems down.'

I'm beginning to warm to Mr Kriel and to wonder if I've been a bit harsh!

[Naffman]

I don't know why he is saying the UK economy is approaching a decline. Aside from London, house prices have barely risen, where I'm originally from in the North East, some houses are selling cheaper than they did in 2006. This would show that the economy has a long way to go before it reaches its height. Also, with interest rates due to go up soon, I just cannot seem to see where he is coming from. But I suppose he can just invest the money his 3K a pop clients have given him over the years.

[Iron]

This is what I suspect he was getting at: http://publicdebts.files.wordpress.com/ ... 4-2014.jpg

I don't profess to know when interest rates will rise, but you can't go on forever spending like we are, and then printing money to keep the wolf from the door. Sooner or later, there has to be a day of reckoning.

When I read your post, I wondered if you were being ironic. However, it's quite possible that you are unaware of how bad the situation is because the MSM don't like telling people they are doomed. People like bad news, but not when the bad news is about their future.

I could be wrong though, and I'd be interested in theories about how our debt problem won't result in unprecedented austerity and/or crippling tax rises.

Jeff

Also, with interest rates due to go up soon, I just cannot seem to see where he is coming from.

[Naffman]

Well at least we know the pound is getting stronger after the Independence vote, and it should continue to get stronger. That is surely a positive, not sure how much it will affect the overall economy though.

[Iron]

Why is a strong pound a good thing? I suppose it's good if you're going on holiday or want to buy cheaper goods from abroad. However, it means we will import more and export less, resulting in wealth leaving the country.

That's a fairly minor issue in the bigger scheme of things though. The big danger our economy faces is the spiraling debt. As George Osborne pointed out a few years ago, we pay interest and interest on interest and interest on interest on interest. Unfortunately, his fine rhetoric hasn't been matched by bold and decisive spending cuts. Look at what's happened to debt as a percentage of GDP since he became chancellor - http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/334/u ... onal-debt/.

It's hard to envisage a positive future for Britain. We are up to our eyeballs in debt and we don't have a huge manufacturing sector any more to drive growth.

Jeff

Well at least we know the pound is getting stronger after the Independence vote, and it should continue to get stronger. That is surely a positive, not sure how much it will affect the overall economy though.

[Naffman]

A stronger pound means slightly less debt. Obviously there are other factors to consider.

[Iron]

I don't see how.

A stronger pound means slightly less debt.

[Naffman]

Most of UK's debt comes from borrowing from OS institutions. Therefore, we will need less pounds to pay off these debts as it has become stronger in comparison to the institutions' local currency. Looking back, I think I should have started out by saying that there are both advantages and disadvantages with a strong currency

[Iron]

Let's say we borrow a billion pounds at x% interest.

Whether the pound trades at $1 per pound or $10 per pound, we still borrowed the same amount of money, and we are still repaying the same amount of money. The only advantage is that, if we are using the borrowed money to import stuff, it will go further.

Jeff

Most of UK's debt comes from borrowing from OS institutions. Therefore, we will need less pounds to pay off these debts as it has become stronger in comparison to the institutions' local currency.

[Iron]

Looking back, I think I should have started out by saying that there are both advantages and disadvantages with a strong currency

Bless.

[Naffman]

If we look at the AUD/GBP, it hit 0.58 a week ago, now it is into 0.55, meaning the pound has become stronger. That means if we borrowed from Australia, we had to pay 58p per $A we borrowed, now we only have to pay 55p per $A, meaning we are paying less on our overseas debt. I believe this right, otherwise my HSC Economics was a waste of time

[Iron]

But if Australia wanted to buy UK gilts, wouldn't they pay in pounds?

Not saying you're wrong, btw.

Jeff

If we look at the AUD/GBP, it hit 0.58 a week ago, now it is into 0.55, meaning the pound has become stronger. That means if we borrowed from Australia, we had to pay 58p per $A we borrowed, now we only have to pay 55p per $A, meaning we are paying less on our overseas debt. I believe this right, otherwise my HSC Economics was a waste of time

[Naffman]

I'm confused now