Trading Financial markets : Oil / Brent Crude

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Euler
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Fri Nov 14, 2014 10:43 pm

Fascinating to watch the Oil price. Great piece in the Economist recently about the dynamics of the market. But I but you few, if any economists or traders were able to predict the current market.

http://ycharts.com/indicators/brent_cru ... spot_price

From a peak of $125 a barrel, brent hit <$81 today in an recovering economy.

BabyArber
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Sat Nov 15, 2014 8:36 am

That's a drifter I'd feel uncomfortable riding...

Come to think of it... when using horse racing terms to refer to commodity markets should I use 'drift' or a 'steam'?

So price decrease in a commodity is similar to the chance of horses to win going down. A drift.

So the graphs are backwards because we normally graph odds which is the inverse of implied probability.

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Euler
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Sat Nov 15, 2014 11:20 am

Y, it's all back to front.

It's curious though because Oil usually follows the economic cycle, but the Oil producing nationals have been pushing out the barrels to try and choke off the shale gas revolution. It's a complex set of dynamics.

andyfuller
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Sat Nov 15, 2014 1:10 pm

Still gets me how quickly it seemingly goes up at the pumps when the oil price rises but comes down much slower and to a lesser extent.

Then you get the Chancellor moaning about the lack of speed of the falls at the pump but forgets to mention the proportion of it that is tax.

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BJGardner
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Sat Nov 15, 2014 3:27 pm

Shrewd trader Warren Buffet.

Buys into a good business with Christmas coming (Duracell) and saves a lot of CGT.

andyfuller
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Sat Nov 15, 2014 3:45 pm

Just don't mention Tesco too him ;)

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Euler
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Thu Nov 27, 2014 4:52 pm

Curious Tesco hasn't half in priced when you take into account dividends. But nobody seems to care about total return only a wiggly line on a chart.

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Euler
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Thu Nov 27, 2014 4:52 pm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30223721

Oil touching $70 a barrel. Should give economies a bit of a kick, apart form the Oil producing ones!

PeterLe
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Fri Nov 28, 2014 5:06 pm

They recon it could drop to as low as $60..there's just too much off it about at the mo now that America are harvesting their own :o

andyfuller
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Fri Nov 28, 2014 6:13 pm

I think some of the reasons being discussed are quite interesting. I am leaning towards the argument that they (Opec, i.e. Saudi's) are trying to put a lot of the Shale Gas producers in the States out of business.

It seems the most logical reason to me but I don't see how long term it will work as eventually when the price goes back up, be it soon or in a few years Shale will become viable again.

I can see a lot of people losing a lot of money in the states, carnage for many. Also it reduces the likelyhood of fracking coming to the UK soon I would think.

It should do the world economy a lot of good at a time when it is very much needed.

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