'Law' of small numbers

[LeTiss]

PeterLe

This is what many newbies don't understand - they think this is a cakewalk. They have no idea what hard work the more successful traders put in

[marko236]

PeterLe

This is what many newbies don't understand - they think this is a cakewalk. They have no idea what hard work the more successful traders put in

So true, i joined Betangel about two years ago after seeing one of peters videos on youtube, i think i joined Betfair about five years ago and i quickly seen the the chance of backing a price and then laying it at a lower price to make money i thought i had come up with the idea of trading and then found out that Peter was doing it ten years earlier

Anyway i joined Betangel and i didn't think it would be easy but it has turned out that i have had to put loads of work into this, i'v came up with what i thought where the greatest ideas ever only for 99% of them to fail, but i suppose if it wasn't hard no one would make money on the exchange.

[Kai]

This is what many newbies don't understand - they think this is a cakewalk. They have no idea what hard work the more successful traders put in

I must admit that I was also one of those people When I saw my first few videos on trading I thought I could easily learn how to do this as well, I thought that it would take no longer than 1-2 months to master this trading malarkey. Six months later I was no closer than the day I started, and during that period I must've invested about 14-16 hours per day on average, I had the freedom to fully commit but it wasn't enough. Needless to say, I completely burned out at the end of that period and was forced to take an extended break because if you can't get any sleep then you're basically useless. So I took a step back, did some proper research, discovered scalping and the mechanical side of trading, discovered this forum and a few other sources of quality information and only then things started moving in the right direction.

I know it's not something that newbies want to hear but that's just how it is.

[greekgiant]

(...) So I took a step back, did some proper research, discovered scalping and the mechanical side of trading, discovered this forum and a few other sources of quality information and only then things started moving in the right direction.

I know it's not something that newbies want to hear but that's just how it is.

Hi Kai ! I see myself in you...
This is exactly what I was doing when I first got involved in trading. I made huge mistakes because I thought it was a "cakewalk" as LeTiss said. So I took a break for a while and now that I'm back I'm searching and studying various sources (it would be great if you could send me the links of the sources you found !). Also I'm trying to do scalping and swing trading on UK horse racing on practice mode.

Cheers !

[burdo77]

What I tend to do when Im building a strategy (before I even touch the keyboard) is to draw it out on a piece of paper (like a flowchart). Im very much a visual person and this works for me, these flow charts can become enormous. Once I'm happy with it, I start to build it (in practice mode) from the ground up. (I have more than one Betfair account so this doesn't stop me doing my normal trading). If it then functions as I would expect and I have my POC (proof of concept), I switch it to the live environment for further testing and enhancement.

Great idea peter!

Could you please give me an example on how you construct your flow charts?

One thing that annoys me about bet angel is that I can't compare my profit loss in practice mode when comparing two strategies. It would drastically speed up my testing time.

Regards

Burdo

[PeterLe]

Hi Burdo
I tend to use minds map a lot, on betfair and in my day job. When faced with a big concept or problem I like to break it down (how do you eat a chocolate elephant? A bite at a time!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_map

Mind maps are nothing new, but something I still use a lot

Once I get a general idea what Im trying to do, I just put together a simple flow chart. For in running for example, try to determine how and when you enter the market. Try to think about what happens to the prices during the various stages of the race..e.g if you had a lay strategy, you may only want it to fire when it was neck and neck (a close race in the final stages). Think how this would be reflected in the current back and lay prices as opposed to how they would be if the race was being won by a horse 10 lengths in the lead. (Also what would happen to the Book% on the lay side?). Two very different and distinct patterns would emerge.

We touched on this subject before heres a post :-

viewtopic.php?f=42&t=7109&hilit=building+a+strategy

there are also lots of blog posts by Peter (here are a few) :-

http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2010/03 ... -strategy/
http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2012/03 ... -part-one/
http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2010/10 ... -strategy/

hope that helps
Regards
Peter

[burdo77]

good stuff peter, your very methodical in your approach. I will give it a try.

thanks

[Kai]

Hi Kai ! I see myself in you...
This is exactly what I was doing when I first got involved in trading. I made huge mistakes because I thought it was a "cakewalk" as LeTiss said. So I took a break for a while and now that I'm back I'm searching and studying various sources (it would be great if you could send me the links of the sources you found !).

Sure, but I can't exactly advertise other websites and forums, send me a PM with what you're looking for exactly and I'll give you everything that I have bookmarked on that subject.