'Law' of small numbers

[PeterLe]

Hi Burdo
I tend to use minds map a lot, on betfair and in my day job. When faced with a big concept or problem I like to break it down (how do you eat a chocolate elephant? A bite at a time!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_map

Mind maps are nothing new, but something I still use a lot

Once I get a general idea what Im trying to do, I just put together a simple flow chart. For in running for example, try to determine how and when you enter the market. Try to think about what happens to the prices during the various stages of the race..e.g if you had a lay strategy, you may only want it to fire when it was neck and neck (a close race in the final stages). Think how this would be reflected in the current back and lay prices as opposed to how they would be if the race was being won by a horse 10 lengths in the lead. (Also what would happen to the Book% on the lay side?). Two very different and distinct patterns would emerge.

We touched on this subject before heres a post :-

viewtopic.php?f=42&t=7109&hilit=building+a+strategy

there are also lots of blog posts by Peter (here are a few) :-

http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2010/03 ... -strategy/
http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2012/03 ... -part-one/
http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2010/10 ... -strategy/

hope that helps
Regards
Peter

[burdo77]

good stuff peter, your very methodical in your approach. I will give it a try.

thanks

[Kai]

Hi Kai ! I see myself in you...
This is exactly what I was doing when I first got involved in trading. I made huge mistakes because I thought it was a "cakewalk" as LeTiss said. So I took a break for a while and now that I'm back I'm searching and studying various sources (it would be great if you could send me the links of the sources you found !).

Sure, but I can't exactly advertise other websites and forums, send me a PM with what you're looking for exactly and I'll give you everything that I have bookmarked on that subject.