Which is more likely

Trading is often about how to take the appropriate risk without exposing yourself to very human flaws.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

This is one of a few things I pull out as party pieces.

There are several clever things you can do to lead people to jump on what is surely a random event, but when their money is gone they can't prove in any way that it wasn't random.

I won't spoil it.

There are some really clever bits of maths and psychology you can use in random events to give yourself a better chance. I attended a charity ball recently and won a stack of prizes and then gave them back to the charity to raffle, after a half drunk speech on how life isn't as random as people often think it is and to be aware of that.

It was a slight swipe at people who invited me with some angst after learning of the nature of my business. My wife was suitably embarrassed and was pretty chuffed at myself.
Lost The Rider
Posts: 50
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 2:44 pm

There are some really clever bits of maths and psychology you can use in random events to give yourself a better chance
At the end of Deal Or No Deal (or any gameshow) the question of should you switch boxes being my favourite example of this.

Its a 50/50 chance.... isn't it.....
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Lost The Rider wrote:
There are some really clever bits of maths and psychology you can use in random events to give yourself a better chance
At the end of Deal Or No Deal (or any gameshow) the question of should you switch boxes being my favourite example of this.

Its a 50/50 chance.... isn't it.....
Deal or No deal isn't an example of the Monty Hall problem, Noel doesn't open a box at the end to increase your odds. Only advantage in opening the other box is the crap odds the banker offers.
marko236
Posts: 737
Joined: Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:54 am

Euler wrote:This is one of a few things I pull out as party pieces.

There are several clever things you can do to lead people to jump on what is surely a random event, but when their money is gone they can't prove in any way that it wasn't random.

I won't spoil it.

There are some really clever bits of maths and psychology you can use in random events to give yourself a better chance. I attended a charity ball recently and won a stack of prizes and then gave them back to the charity to raffle, after a half drunk speech on how life isn't as random as people often think it is and to be aware of that.

It was a slight swipe at people who invited me with some angst after learning of the nature of my business. My wife was suitably embarrassed and was pretty chuffed at myself.
I'l take a shot at the raffle, if everyone had bought one ticket each they would have an equal chance of winning.

I think you bought an amount of tickets that cost less than half the value of the items won and you worked out how many tickets to buy to win more than 50% of the time?
Lost The Rider
Posts: 50
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 2:44 pm

Deal or No deal isn't an example of the Monty Hall problem, Noel doesn't open a box at the end to increase your odds. Only advantage in opening the other box is the crap odds the banker offers.
This was a trick question posed by my old stats lecturer when we were covering Monty Hall. You are correct it isn't a Monty Hall scenario despite portraying similar characteristics.

It makes no difference. In Deal Or No Deal when left with two boxes at the end there is a 50/50 chance of any of the two remaining values being in each of the boxes. The show is essentially a convoluted way of randomly picking 2 boxes from 22.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

marko236 wrote:I'l take a shot at the raffle, if everyone had bought one ticket each they would have an equal chance of winning.

I think you bought an amount of tickets that cost less than half the value of the items won and you worked out how many tickets to buy to win more than 50% of the time?
They had an 'open' raffle so you bought tickets and then stuck them in a basket next to the prize. So the first mistake everybody made was most people went for the popular prizes. There was no discretion from people about how many tickets were in there already. People just went all in with their tickets to try and back their favourite prize.

So I went for the 'un-popular' prizes first. I then waited till the last minute when most people had put in their 'votes'.

Then I looked at each basket to figure out how many tickets I need to put in the basket to be more likely than not to win. So I then distributed tickets amoungst the pots to achieve that and with the spare tickets I picked my 'favourite' prizes.

They did a game of heads and tails as well, which I won. I did it by simply accepting it was random but betting against opponents by looking to eliminate the largest number of votes on each turn. I couldn't influence the outcome, but I could elimante the participants who didn't think it through and followed their biases en-masse.
marko236
Posts: 737
Joined: Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:54 am

Euler wrote:
marko236 wrote:I'l take a shot at the raffle, if everyone had bought one ticket each they would have an equal chance of winning.

I think you bought an amount of tickets that cost less than half the value of the items won and you worked out how many tickets to buy to win more than 50% of the time?
They had an 'open' raffle so you bought tickets and then stuck them in a basket next to the prize. So the first mistake everybody made was most people went for the popular prizes. There was no discretion from people about how many tickets were in there already. People just went all in with their tickets to try and back their favourite prize.

So I went for the 'un-popular' prizes first. I then waited till the last minute when most people had put in their 'votes'.

Then I looked at each basket to figure out how many tickets I need to put in the basket to be more likely than not to win. So I then distributed tickets amoungst the pots to achieve that and with the spare tickets I picked my 'favourite' prizes.

They did a game of heads and tails as well, which I won. I did it by simply accepting it was random but betting against opponents by looking to eliminate the largest number of votes on each turn. I couldn't influence the outcome, but I could elimante the participants who didn't think it through and followed their biases en-masse.
I would of given you more than a 50% chance of starting the first riot at a charity.

Sometimes better going with the crowd ;)
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

I rather enjoyed shoving the condescending chairman's nose in it.

'Oh.... you're the guy who is trying to make a living gambling on horses aren't you?'
User avatar
gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

The TED talk that sparked all this

https://www.ted.com/talks/peter_donnell ... anguage=en

If you want to miss all the jokes at the start then go to 3:45
Wildly
Posts: 229
Joined: Wed Nov 28, 2012 7:31 am
Location: Australia

gazuty wrote: I'm going to sleep but I'll post up the solution in the morning unless it is solved overnight.

I'm having trouble falling asleep. Here's the solution

Kate Upton is tossing the coin
Gazuty, If you want less trouble sleeping make a slight change. Forget the coin, that just leaves Kate Upton and tossing.
User avatar
gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

Wildly wrote:
gazuty wrote: I'm going to sleep but I'll post up the solution in the morning unless it is solved overnight.

I'm having trouble falling asleep. Here's the solution

Kate Upton is tossing the coin
Gazuty, If you want less trouble sleeping make a slight change. Forget the coin, that just leaves Kate Upton and tossing.
Good point. That method has had a high success rate for getting me to sleep.
Post Reply

Return to “Trading Psychology”