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Trading is often about how to take the appropriate risk without exposing yourself to very human flaws.
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workpeter
Posts: 165
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 8:29 pm

JKawai wrote:
Crazyskier wrote:
RentonT wrote:
The only way you will win at this is through DISCIPLINE, that is it. It is so simple.
Believe in GETTING RICH SLOW
I'm 100% behind this. I also used to blow entire banks from chasing losses and silly last-minute spam clicking in play low odds horses.

Now I am far far less stressed and use automation for almost all of my trades.

IF IT WORKS CONSISTENTLY, AUTOMATE IT. This removes the discipline and impulsive urges. I'd also say use only 5-10% of your bank per event maximum - allow room for error etc.

I don't have the race-reading craft or trading skills to manually trade, nor the time to acquire them, but I recognise that I went on tilt after spending hours making consistent profits only to have one ridiculous event that cost me in a few minutes, more than I'd made in a whole day!!

Now my expectations are managed - this isn't an adrenaline-fuelled frantic half hour, but rather a luxury cruise, watching the pennies turn into pounds...

Less instant gratification, more long term consistency. Works for me. Hope you can make it work for you too.
Yeah this does sound like the ideal scenario. Not sure how I could automate my trades though. You're lucky you have an automatable strategy. Do you use third party software to betangel or can you do it all within betangel?

EDIT: I really don't know how you could automate swing trading.

First of all you'd have to tell the bot how to recognise a market that exhibits a price spread that is conducive to swing trading, i.e. one with the top 3 runners at 4.0 is unlikely to be a swing market.

Then you'd have to teach it how to recognise a market that is likely to be volatile based on the amount of unmatched volume sitting at the sides, the bid offer spread, where the race is, what time of day it is.

You'd have to tell the bot how to know when the previous race has started and finished to know when to expect big money to arrive.

You'd have to teach it how to recognise what is a sufficient one-sided fill rate to open a trade.

You'd have to teach it to recognise a 3v1 situation and any XOs that may need negotiation.

You'd have to teach it to ignore spikes as single opinion and not believable fill rate.

You'd have to teach it to understand whether a retrace is going to return based on previous behaviour/people taking value, or whether it is a change of direction, one of the other prices has changed direction etc.

You'd have to teach it to know when to lighten the position at sticking points, and when to not do this based on the intensity of the fill rate.

You'd have to teach it to read ranges.

You'd have to teach it to know when to exit a trade based on the 'likely' baseline, and based on the price of the other runners.

You'd have to teach it to read the fill rate on the other runners and know how seriously to take it.

You'd have to teach it to know what the 'breaking point' is for drifts on other runners where traders will take value and a possible change in direction will occur.

You'd have to teach it to understand line up commentary, and to actually accommodate line-up trades.

The list goes on... I can't see how you could automate this type of trading!
This is possible to automate in excel however It is beyond the skill of most. If the data is available and you know how to buffer it you can make human like decisions.

My day job involves data modelling, analysis and programming so you can imagine im having fun with this. Im considering taking requests to build advanced bots for people if i feel its worth my time. Im beyond the interest of money, i just enjoy the intellectual challenge. Altbough im closed for business over the next few weeks. Maybe drop me a PM sometime.
Bluesky
Posts: 420
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:26 pm

workpeter wrote:. Im beyond the interest of money, i just enjoy the intellectual challenge. Altbough im closed for business over the next few weeks. Maybe drop me a PM sometime.
That's a very nice thing to say, and I think some form of swing trading can be automated. I do however suspect that the best swing traders use a lot of intuition, which even they cant really explain how they do it. If you ask them they just say they seem to be able to feel when certain things are going to happen or when they are going to stop. If you ever watch someone doing this it seems really mystical, like magic, but I don't doubt that the best traders have this ability. I doubt if this kind of thing can every be done by a computer certainly not soon anyway. Perhaps in the future if computers ever become aware then it might be possible, but that could be next year, next decade, next century or might never happen.
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jimibt
Posts: 3668
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

Bluesky wrote:
workpeter wrote:. Im beyond the interest of money, i just enjoy the intellectual challenge. Altbough im closed for business over the next few weeks. Maybe drop me a PM sometime.
That's a very nice thing to say, and I think some form of swing trading can be automated. I do however suspect that the best swing traders use a lot of intuition, which even they cant really explain how they do it. If you ask them they just say they seem to be able to feel when certain things are going to happen or when they are going to stop. If you ever watch someone doing this it seems really mystical, like magic, but I don't doubt that the best traders have this ability. I doubt if this kind of thing can every be done by a computer certainly not soon anyway. Perhaps in the future if computers ever become aware then it might be possible, but that could be next year, next decade, next century or might never happen.
have to agree 100%, tho, with the right tools, intuition can be brought to you (the user), in order to better exercise that intuition... i bang on about it, but the nature of a single market is literally a closed loop where the sum of all book %ages have to fall within certain balanced parameters (give or take the odd lunge). this is where you find the value and early signals pertaining to mystisysm and dark art :D... treading the dark path ;)
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