Admission time, and a question or two :(

Trading is often about how to take the appropriate risk without exposing yourself to very human flaws.
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Derek27
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If you were profitable previously, the important thing to do is look closely at your current trading and figure out what you're doing differently.

In my case, I realised I was getting complacent, overstaking, and then forced to trade out to stop the loss, whereas if I used more sensible stakes I would have had the luxury to wait and catch a profitable trade. I was also spending less time analysing the market as I believed I'm so experienced now winning is just second nature. :lol:

In particular, look closely at the markets where you lost more than you intended to risk and consider what you could have done differently, i.e. smaller stakes, getting out earlier, more cautious swings etc.
stueytrader
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Derek27 wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:50 am
If you were profitable previously, the important thing to do is look closely at your current trading and figure out what you're doing differently.

In my case, I realised I was getting complacent, overstaking, and then forced to trade out to stop the loss, whereas if I used more sensible stakes I would have had the luxury to wait and catch a profitable trade. I was also spending less time analysing the market as I believed I'm so experienced now winning is just second nature. :lol:

In particular, look closely at the markets where you lost more than you intended to risk and consider what you could have done differently, i.e. smaller stakes, getting out earlier, more cautious swings etc.
Yep, can see some of those bad habits in my poor times too Derek, especially the overstaking problem. One thing I have found is that sometimes the smallest overstaking (which you get away with) leads to repeating the habit, in essence it can become a 'habit' if not careful. When doing well I was rigidly disciplined in my staking, so I know that is a big difference for me. I feel in general I had my psychology working correctly, but it slipped somehow and that's what I'm looking to redress.
spreadbetting
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stueytrader wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:28 am

I had about a year of profit, and I actually posted on here the question of how long is enough to judge - sadly my latest year is not in profit. But I'm aiming to revert back to the earlier year! There is something of a question of time-spans in judging success too - a piece of string kind of question, but the aim to use longer views of profit/loss is good I agree.

I can see the mentality of looking at longer periods to assess your capabilities when gambling but trading is a different kettle of fish , you're generally turning over so many markets things become quite obvious quickly if you can win or not. I think there always comes a point with trading where you become confident in your own ability to win simply because you understand the reasons why you're winning.
stueytrader
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spreadbetting wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:09 pm
stueytrader wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:28 am

I had about a year of profit, and I actually posted on here the question of how long is enough to judge - sadly my latest year is not in profit. But I'm aiming to revert back to the earlier year! There is something of a question of time-spans in judging success too - a piece of string kind of question, but the aim to use longer views of profit/loss is good I agree.

I can see the mentality of looking at longer periods to assess your capabilities when gambling but trading is a different kettle of fish , you're generally turning over so many markets things become quite obvious quickly if you can win or not. I think there always comes a point with trading where you become confident in your own ability to win simply because you understand the reasons why you're winning.
Possibly true, though I still think the principle of using a 'looking back further' approach is still a good one for keeping yourself in check, in several ways.
Halliday
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stueytrader wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:44 pm
spreadbetting wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:09 pm
stueytrader wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:28 am

I had about a year of profit, and I actually posted on here the question of how long is enough to judge - sadly my latest year is not in profit. But I'm aiming to revert back to the earlier year! There is something of a question of time-spans in judging success too - a piece of string kind of question, but the aim to use longer views of profit/loss is good I agree.

I can see the mentality of looking at longer periods to assess your capabilities when gambling but trading is a different kettle of fish , you're generally turning over so many markets things become quite obvious quickly if you can win or not. I think there always comes a point with trading where you become confident in your own ability to win simply because you understand the reasons why you're winning.
Possibly true, though I still think the principle of using a 'looking back further' approach is still a good one for keeping yourself in check, in several ways.

I agree with the post by spreadbetting that because of the nature of trading you soon become aware if your any good at it or not , most of the time your your carrying out the same thought process and repeating similar trades over and over again, and the thought process becomes instinctive .
Reading your posts your putting far too much thought into something which isn't that complicated.Keep your trades simple, reapeat them over and over again, till you can implement them without thinking ...

If after a year your still question whether your successful, or feel the need to keep yourself "in check", or look for reasons( excuses) why it's not working . Then really it's not for you .It might be that you just don't have the character to make it work.

I don't think posting about what you appear to already know about your failings is going to change your approach etc , as you seem to have been at it for some time .

Good look anyway , and if you are determined to continue,rather than posting .. read the numerous replies to similar posts to yours .. If you really think it will help you ... I've lost count of the number of ground hog day " threads we have had !!
stueytrader
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Been some good suggestions I've already taken from this thread for specific things to add to my day/experience while trading (Le Tiss' for example). It's a positive process for me and my trading so far, and I hope for anyone else interested.
Omnishambles
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Hi. New to the forum as a poster, but I've been following this with interest in the last couple of days and I kind of feel compelled to weigh in for some reason.

As somebody that is about to take the plunge into full time next month, I think I can offer some good general advice that has worked for me. As a caveat, this is not unique advice by any stretch and has almost certainly been covered before. Also, I don’t mean this to be condescending or patronising; I apologise in advance if it is.

I'm going to start off with a massive and apparently unhelpful cliche, We get what we want out of the markets.

This, for me, is one of the most profound concepts to grasp as a trader. It has multiple layers and it must be addressed if you're be to successful long-term. The financial trading books deal with this subject better than anything else I've found, and top of my list would be the Market Wizards series. If I had acted upon this advice years ago I would have saved myself a lot of pain and a lot of money, but, at the time, to be told that my losing was a reflection of what I wanted out of trading was like a kick in the guts, and was obviously pseudo-psychology nonsense....

For me, my motivations were simple: to quit my 9-5 office job and work for myself. I love horse racing, I love gambling for money in all of its forms, and I saw pre-race trading as an excellent way to quit the grind and maintain my standard of living. The problem I had was that I earned a high salary and I needed to replace that monthly salary with an equivalent amount (or so I thought), and so every loss I took in the pre-race markets, in my mind, took me further away from that goal of quitting the 9-5. It took me a long time, but eventually I realised the losses in themselves didn’t bother me at all, it was the implications of the losses that was killing me i.e. I’ll never be good enough to quit my job.

After dozens of bankrolls and much soul-searching, and to cut a long story short; I gave up the ghost of pre-race trading, and I've never been happier or more successful. I simply wasn't suited to it mentally and I came to realise that I actually didn’t enjoy it either. It was just vanity and showing off; I wanted to be seen to be a pre-race trader, I didn’t actually want to be one. I was sabotaging myself because my sub-conscious knew I didn’t like price action trading.

Others have said this more succinctly and more brutally in earlier replies, and they are absolutely right. Certainly in my case, anyway, but that doesn’t mean we’re out of the game!

Nowadays I pretty much only trade in-play horses and tennis, and, as I say, without the mental drag factor of pre-race, I’m doing better than I ever could have imagined. I’m a punter at heart, so I like to do my research and back my opinion – it’s who I am, but it’s not part of the pre-race game (or not to any significant degree).

Anyway, I hope that helps in some way.

As for specific advice:
- Do a ‘what if’ analysis on your P&L e.g. adjust all losses over 2% to 2%, This way you get see what would have happened if you’d been disciplined. The transformation you see from loser to winner when adjusting losses to a hard stop is astounding…

- Never chase an entry up the ladder (or down). Set a hard limit e.g. if it goes more than 2-3 ticks in the way you thought, just accept you’ve missed a winner - only the losers get on now.

- Describe the situation out loud to yourself. Where is the matched volume? Where is it trading now. What will be the trigger that causes you enter a trade? Then watch and only enter when what you predicted actually happens.

- Make a physical note every time you make a rash entry or a mistake. When it’s in front of you, it’s hard to justify carrying on making half a dozen mistakes per race.

- Practice taking controlled losses. Learn to derive pleasure from a controlled loss.

- Learn to trust your instincts and intuition – trust that over what you see in front of your own eyes (often you’re seeing what you want to see).

- Scratch a million times more than you are now.

- The markets change all time; look at your trade execution. You might be getting it totally right but losing because of poor execution. It’s the whipsaws that crush aspiring pre-race traders, in my opinion, learn how to overcome them…

- There’s a market for every style of trading, but there isn’t a trading style for every market.

- Only money moves the markets – go with the money. For example, I have a preference for laying, so when a horse is getting backed off the boards I’m messing about trying to catch a horse going over the crossover and getting whipsawed instead of participating in a massive real money driven move.

Easier said than done, eh. I didn’t manage it.

Good luck!
Bluesky
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That's got to be one of the best first posts I've ever read on this or any other sport or financial trading forum. Thanks for making it Omni, there was some great information in it.
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Euler
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Great insight from the coalface, thanks for posting.
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3virgul14
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As you might have realized already, almost none of the long time pro-traders post advices here .

A zero-sum game requires losers to feed winners and it is all about if you can stand in the winners side.. Small or big profits , does not matter, you gotta find your margin and maintain it. Keep silent and enjoy while it lasts. If the income is enough for a living, you can go pro, but never guarantees the upcoming days. Gotta improve it too as the days go on..

My 5 cents on the self sabotage thing: Been there done that. Still doing it when the motivation is not present.. I was never a pre-race trader, never had success on horse race trading either.. But I am a full time trader.
See : its possible.

Dont fall into the trap that sports trading is all about horses.. Its just an illusion..

Trading careers are built upon the mistakes, learn from them and you paid yourself a course. ROI should pay you off in the long term.
stueytrader
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Yes, some excellent points, thanks.
stueytrader
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Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Nowadays I pretty much only trade in-play horses and tennis, and, as I say, without the mental drag factor of pre-race, I’m doing better than I ever could have imagined. I’m a punter at heart, so I like to do my research and back my opinion – it’s who I am, but it’s not part of the pre-race game (or not to any significant degree).

That part is perhaps something I have long struggled with - how a horses form/ability often seems to fail to influence the market (even though it influences the race).
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to75ne
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stueytrader wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:13 am
That part is perhaps something I have long struggled with - how a horses form/ability often seems to fail to influence the market (even though it influences the race).
class 6 on a dreary wednesday night at wolves, kempton etc, horses are not that special cost 2 bob, dubious form (probably not worth knowing) never gonna be much, attracts low volumes of money, how would you expect the market to behave?

on the other hand group 1 at ascot, cheltenham, curragh wherever, on a sunny saturday afternoon. horses top of the tree cost silly money, form and breeding probably well know and proven, attracts large volumes, how would you expect to the market to behave?
Halliday
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stueytrader wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:13 am
Nowadays I pretty much only trade in-play horses and tennis, and, as I say, without the mental drag factor of pre-race, I’m doing better than I ever could have imagined. I’m a punter at heart, so I like to do my research and back my opinion – it’s who I am, but it’s not part of the pre-race game (or not to any significant degree).

That part is perhaps something I have long struggled with - how a horses form/ability often seems to fail to influence the market (even though it influences the race).
[/quote








First of all its primarily a Horses form and it's connections,Stable, Jockey etc which sets the initial tissue price, and subsequently many factors influence any fluctuations

Do you need to know these factors to trade . Well no , but it can give you that "edge " in many instances
If your just backing or laying horses then yes it vital that you understand form and a myriad of other factors in my opinion .


The way markets are formed has changed over the years, in the old days the "tissue odds would be priced up the night before , but now bookmakers manage their liabilities and react to market moves etc on the exchanges, and I suspect Betfair is now the main source of reference for most Bookmakers.

But it is not always supply and demand which affects a horses price

But a horses form ( course, going , draw, trainer/jockey, class etc) is still the main basis for the initial prices. And if you do your research you can predict certain market moves .For example

The recent soft ground has resulted in many horses with no recent form , but with "back form "showing a preference for soft/ heavy ground being shortened in price . And vice versa with firm ground horses ... and if early prices reflect odds based on "good ground" and it rains and the ground changes .. There are many opportunities to catch a price move early

Horses trained by Olly Murphy in recent weeks are nearly always shortened in price . And the odds bear no relation to the horses chances of winning the race
Trainer form can play a big part in a horses odds ( especially with certain trainers )

Draw bias at certain courses result in horses drifting and shortening in price, and often if a change in the going results in a draw bias on the day( based on earlier results ) horses odds change significantly.

If a jockey wins a couple of races on a card . Any later rides often shorten in price . S De Sousa in recent weeks being a classic example .And I think Peter pointed out Ryan Moore At Royal Ascot .

And tipsters like Hugh Taylor and Pricewise invariably affect a horses price .

Horse / jockey combinations , trainer/jockey etc .. there is one northern trained sprinter which has run over 70 times with 12 different jockeys, it has won 8 races . All with same jockey on board !!
Class is another factor which can go unnoticed but greatly affects a horses price .

Cartmel is an interesting course to study re many of the above factors and trainers especially

Of course the depth and strength of the market determines how influential and what movement the above affects a horses price .

There are many more criteria which can influence price movement, and can give you an "edge"

I guess you just have to quantify whether the time and research is worth the return , or whether its case of just "watching he markets.



And as a few have said in here . The less time you spend on here posting , and analysing yourself . The better you will become .. Rather than trying to convince yourself you will succeed . It may sound harsh but the majority of posters like Stueytrader will never succeed and make things sound so complicated. When it isn't .. But do so either for attention , or because there character isn't cut out for trading .

Everything on this thread has been said many times before . Over and over again .. but still gets regurgitated on a regular basis,so with minimum effort you would have found what you think you needed . Without starting another thread

So desist from posting . Do your own thing . Specialise in just the one sport ( horse racing) . Keep it simple , stick to one type if trade . And repeat over and over again till it's instinctive ... Dont kid yourself, if your still posting these sort of questions after over a year . Then trading isn't for you

And most of all enjoy .. trading should help you enjoy life . Not be your life and consume you with all this self analysis !!
spreadbetting
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Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

I'd pretty much agree Halliday, it does seem to be groundhog day on here quite a lot of the time.

That's not to say these type of posts are wasted, I've always believed the people who get the most from the posts are the people actually reading them rather than those posting them. Most people asking the questions are usually too lazy to look for the numerous answers already on the forum and will only take on board things they want to hear or answers that reinforce their own already flawed logic. Anything that may question the logic of their approach usually gets ignored.
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