Trading Psychology : Admission time, and a question or two :(

Trading is often about how to take the appropriate risk without exposing yourself to very human flaws.
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stueytrader
Posts: 368
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:10 am

Yes, some excellent points, thanks.

stueytrader
Posts: 368
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:13 am

Nowadays I pretty much only trade in-play horses and tennis, and, as I say, without the mental drag factor of pre-race, I’m doing better than I ever could have imagined. I’m a punter at heart, so I like to do my research and back my opinion – it’s who I am, but it’s not part of the pre-race game (or not to any significant degree).

That part is perhaps something I have long struggled with - how a horses form/ability often seems to fail to influence the market (even though it influences the race).

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to75ne
Posts: 1873
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2009 5:37 pm

Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:52 am

stueytrader wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:13 am
That part is perhaps something I have long struggled with - how a horses form/ability often seems to fail to influence the market (even though it influences the race).
class 6 on a dreary wednesday night at wolves, kempton etc, horses are not that special cost 2 bob, dubious form (probably not worth knowing) never gonna be much, attracts low volumes of money, how would you expect the market to behave?

on the other hand group 1 at ascot, cheltenham, curragh wherever, on a sunny saturday afternoon. horses top of the tree cost silly money, form and breeding probably well know and proven, attracts large volumes, how would you expect to the market to behave?

Halliday
Posts: 457
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:40 pm

Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:39 am

stueytrader wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:13 am
Nowadays I pretty much only trade in-play horses and tennis, and, as I say, without the mental drag factor of pre-race, I’m doing better than I ever could have imagined. I’m a punter at heart, so I like to do my research and back my opinion – it’s who I am, but it’s not part of the pre-race game (or not to any significant degree).

That part is perhaps something I have long struggled with - how a horses form/ability often seems to fail to influence the market (even though it influences the race).
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First of all its primarily a Horses form and it's connections,Stable, Jockey etc which sets the initial tissue price, and subsequently many factors influence any fluctuations

Do you need to know these factors to trade . Well no , but it can give you that "edge " in many instances
If your just backing or laying horses then yes it vital that you understand form and a myriad of other factors in my opinion .


The way markets are formed has changed over the years, in the old days the "tissue odds would be priced up the night before , but now bookmakers manage their liabilities and react to market moves etc on the exchanges, and I suspect Betfair is now the main source of reference for most Bookmakers.

But it is not always supply and demand which affects a horses price

But a horses form ( course, going , draw, trainer/jockey, class etc) is still the main basis for the initial prices. And if you do your research you can predict certain market moves .For example

The recent soft ground has resulted in many horses with no recent form , but with "back form "showing a preference for soft/ heavy ground being shortened in price . And vice versa with firm ground horses ... and if early prices reflect odds based on "good ground" and it rains and the ground changes .. There are many opportunities to catch a price move early

Horses trained by Olly Murphy in recent weeks are nearly always shortened in price . And the odds bear no relation to the horses chances of winning the race
Trainer form can play a big part in a horses odds ( especially with certain trainers )

Draw bias at certain courses result in horses drifting and shortening in price, and often if a change in the going results in a draw bias on the day( based on earlier results ) horses odds change significantly.

If a jockey wins a couple of races on a card . Any later rides often shorten in price . S De Sousa in recent weeks being a classic example .And I think Peter pointed out Ryan Moore At Royal Ascot .

And tipsters like Hugh Taylor and Pricewise invariably affect a horses price .

Horse / jockey combinations , trainer/jockey etc .. there is one northern trained sprinter which has run over 70 times with 12 different jockeys, it has won 8 races . All with same jockey on board !!
Class is another factor which can go unnoticed but greatly affects a horses price .

Cartmel is an interesting course to study re many of the above factors and trainers especially

Of course the depth and strength of the market determines how influential and what movement the above affects a horses price .

There are many more criteria which can influence price movement, and can give you an "edge"

I guess you just have to quantify whether the time and research is worth the return , or whether its case of just "watching he markets.



And as a few have said in here . The less time you spend on here posting , and analysing yourself . The better you will become .. Rather than trying to convince yourself you will succeed . It may sound harsh but the majority of posters like Stueytrader will never succeed and make things sound so complicated. When it isn't .. But do so either for attention , or because there character isn't cut out for trading .

Everything on this thread has been said many times before . Over and over again .. but still gets regurgitated on a regular basis,so with minimum effort you would have found what you think you needed . Without starting another thread

So desist from posting . Do your own thing . Specialise in just the one sport ( horse racing) . Keep it simple , stick to one type if trade . And repeat over and over again till it's instinctive ... Dont kid yourself, if your still posting these sort of questions after over a year . Then trading isn't for you

And most of all enjoy .. trading should help you enjoy life . Not be your life and consume you with all this self analysis !!

spreadbetting
Posts: 1874
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:50 am

I'd pretty much agree Halliday, it does seem to be groundhog day on here quite a lot of the time.

That's not to say these type of posts are wasted, I've always believed the people who get the most from the posts are the people actually reading them rather than those posting them. Most people asking the questions are usually too lazy to look for the numerous answers already on the forum and will only take on board things they want to hear or answers that reinforce their own already flawed logic. Anything that may question the logic of their approach usually gets ignored.

iambic_pentameter
Posts: 333
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm

Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:02 pm

Couple of great posts there, Halliday and Spreadbetting.

I know from my own experience that you have to be in the markets day in / day out for everything to sink in.

Reading Halliday's notes was a sign of how far I've come - last year when I started I knew nothing about racing but now as well as my pre-off trading, I'm starting to get involved with in play.

I should stress that the in play trades are based on extensive research like going, jockey, form, watching previous race replays etc. If someone told me 12 months ago that I'd be able to identify potential B2L trades, I'd have laughed at them.

I'm not the most intelligent person in the world but I understand that if you put the effort in, you will get the rewards - case in point, I spend at least an hour a day watching trading related videos.

stueytrader
Posts: 368
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:13 pm

Thanks for all the comments, some good points.

I would just like to add however, that this was posted on the 'Psychology' sub-forum, so I'm not sure why so many are pointing out that we should stop talking about psychology....

I get the point that moaning about tilt etc is 'groundhog' to some extent around here. But this wasn't meant to be a general trading posting, rather a question about how psychology affects our trading. I did purposely post it in THIS section because of that, rather than the general trading sections.

stueytrader
Posts: 368
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:17 pm

...and I am still interested in how our specific behaviours/approaches/strategies/thoughts/surroundings etc etc influence us during our days in this pursuit we do.

RentonT
Posts: 186
Joined: Tue May 19, 2015 12:26 am

Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:47 pm

Another quote I like is "results don't lie".

People often like to kid themselves or make excuses... BUT results don't lie. THE END!

lol

stueytrader
Posts: 368
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:53 pm

RentonT wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:47 pm
Another quote I like is "results don't lie".

People often like to kid themselves or make excuses... BUT results don't lie. THE END!

lol
Being 'honest' with yourself is pretty huge I agree. It is also a process I find is more applicable/useful when 'offline' (i.e. when we are away from the actual trading day).

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