The psychology of money

Trading is often about how to take the appropriate risk without exposing yourself to very human flaws.
spreadbetting
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Derek27 wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:06 pm
spreadbetting wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:02 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:55 pm
I'd be interested in hearing from anyone who has an idea or opinion on the balance of winners to losers on Betfair. Putting aside commission, would it be 50/50 or nearer 40/60, or even more skewed?
Not sure what you mean by that, Betfair's data ages ago said the percentages were 95% losers 5% winners longterm
If commission is excluded from that the winners including commission would be even less than 5%. Considering profits always equal losses on Betfair I would have expected winners to be much bigger than 5%, but perhaps I'm way off the mark.
Those were apparently winning/losing accounts so commission would have been taken into account. Plus that was over a period rather than race and most losers just continue to punt away any profit til they become a net loser anyway. Basically the negative compound interest of commission will always keep the overall winners to a small percentage.
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Euler
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Derek27 wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:55 pm
I'd be interested in hearing from anyone who has an idea or opinion on the balance of winners to losers on Betfair. Putting aside commission, would it be 50/50 or nearer 40/60, or even more skewed?
If you deduct commission the number is probably pretty high as it's commission that kills people in the long term. So the amount of money won and lost would be distributed roughly equally you would think, but maybe not the number of winners.
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ruthlessimon
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Derek27 wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:55 pm
I'd be interested in hearing from anyone who has an idea or opinion on the balance of winners to losers on Betfair. Putting aside commission, would it be 50/50 or nearer 40/60, or even more skewed?
If you define winner as an all-time P&L above £0, probably a lot. But I prefer "winner" being used for a trader who could "live off their work" - to which end I think the 5% begins to seem more valid.

If I put £100,000 on Red, & it wins - I'm a winner - but I wouldn't consider myself a winner

actually that reminds me of this nutter!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGCdBsOIKYA
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Dallas
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:28 pm

actually that reminds me of this nutter!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGCdBsOIKYA
Im sure there was a short documentary made on him
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Derek27
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Location: UK

ruthlessimon wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:28 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:55 pm
I'd be interested in hearing from anyone who has an idea or opinion on the balance of winners to losers on Betfair. Putting aside commission, would it be 50/50 or nearer 40/60, or even more skewed?
If you define winner as an all-time P&L above £0, probably a lot. But I prefer "winner" being used for a trader who could "live off their work" - to which end I think the 5% begins to seem more valid.

If I put £100,000 on Red, & it wins - I'm a winner - but I wouldn't consider myself a winner

actually that reminds me of this nutter!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGCdBsOIKYA
Thats a defenition of a professional. A winner is someone whose account is in profit, either annually or lifetime.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

Dallas wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:32 pm
ruthlessimon wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:28 pm

actually that reminds me of this nutter!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGCdBsOIKYA
Im sure there was a short documentary made on him
I wonder what percentage of people (like me) were hoping that he lost.
eightbo
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:28 pm

actually that reminds me of this nutter!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGCdBsOIKYA
Knew exactly what video this was going to before clicking! (ok not exactly but probably)

@Dallas
I can remember seeing this on a documentary some time ago, it was centred around gambling and not the guy himself.
Might have been from Louis Theroux: Gambling in Las Vegas (2007), if not I believe something from Nat Geo channel on how gambling affects the brain.
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