The code

[Iron]

Here's a link relating to the program: http://www.bbc.co.uk/tv/features/code/

BTW, I question the common notion that the average of lots of independent guesses is likely to be highly accurate. Let's you were to map the guesses on a frequency histogram, with extremely accurate guesses at one end and extremely inaccurate guesses at the other. If normal distribution applies, then surely it follows that the average of the guesses will be nowhere near the extremely accurate guesses.

I think the theory put forward in this article offers a better explanation of why the Betfair markets are, on aggregate, so efficient: http://karmatics.com/docs/evolution-and ... rowds.html

Jeff

[rubysglory]

Nice article. Like Jimmy Wales' analogy of the 'sausage'. LOL.

rg