Are you sure? :)

Trading is often about how to take the appropriate risk without exposing yourself to very human flaws.
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Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

An interesting exercise that shows that people overestimate how certain they are of things:

http://www.bettingautomation.com/articl ... nesses.pdf

Worth remembering next time you're thinking of betting on a horse that can't possibly lose! ;)

Jeff
Groovyelms
Posts: 277
Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 7:42 am

I am like this at every pub quiz I do,, my problem is that I also sound convincing... :shock:
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Nice little quiz that!

I got 6 right, so I'm only 60% right when I'm convinced I'm 90% right.

I think it's too easy to over analyse things in life....now that I'm 90% confident about!
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JollyGreen
Posts: 2046
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Hey Groovyelms....Thank you for making me :D when you mentioned the pub quiz. We used to have a guy like that and when he got it wrong he would say "Damn, that was the other answer I had"

It reminds me of a couple of TV characters.

Do you remember the Fast Show where the bloke in the pub is trying to tell another guy how to play the Fruit Machine... :lol:

Or in the Inbetweeners where Will pulls Charlotte and goes upstairs with her at the party. The school Psycho is her boyfriend and Neal is trying to remember who he is. Despite prompts from his mates he only remembers when Donovan arrives on the scene and Neal says "Oh yes that's him!" :lol:
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

I'm trying to concentrate on this morning's Tennis, JollyGreen. You're not helping! The thought of Emily Atack in the sack makes me sweat buckets
Groovyelms
Posts: 277
Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 7:42 am

I can see that I am going to have to buy a tv... who are these hot characters? ;)
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