The habitual smoker who plays poker machines...

Trading is often about how to take the appropriate risk without exposing yourself to very human flaws.
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Iron
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Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

From From https://www.thechartist.com.au/Trading- ... ading.html:

'Let’s use a simple, yet alarming, analogy: a habitual smoker who plays poker machines. This person has a serious conflict. In the first instance this person is bombarded by death rhetoric every time they light up. “Smoking Kills”, “Smoking Causes Cancer”, “Cancer Kills” and so on. Yet they continue to smoke. Why? Well the conscious part tells us that it's addictive, it's not my fault and I can’t stop. It’s the fault of the tobacco companies; they are to blame because they make the cigarettes addictive. The subconscious however is where the truth lies. There may be various reasons and these will differ between individuals. The reasoning of addiction is more likely to be denial of habit. Denial of habit suggests that the person does not have the discipline to give up or alternatively the person may in fact not want to give up.

Probing deeper we may find that the person gets comfort from smoking, even though they know it may contribute to serious health issues. Why do they get comfort? Perhaps they feel it won’t happen to them. Smoking may cause cancer, but that happens to someone else. Here its ego at work, the “it can’t happen to me” syndrome.

Now lets look at this same person as they play poker machines. As we know these machines have a mathematical negative expectancy. You will lose money if you play long enough. No amount of luck will enable you to remain a winner, yet in our example our man continues to play. Why? Consciously there may be excitement, an endeavor to pass time or a social activity. It can’t be monetary because it’s a negative expectancy game. So on the subconscious level what is occurring? It again may be varying issues. It can be comforting; after all, a poker machine will never give you negative feedback. Nice flashing lights, pretty noises, the occasional sucker win but overall the environment is designed to keep you playing and is therefore comforting with positive feedback. The individual may not get positive feedback or the same attention outside of the poker machines. But ego may also be at work, in other words the “it won’t happen to me” syndrome. I am not a loser. I am lucky and I will beat the poker machines. But this is in direct conflict with their smoking habit. Cancer happens to someone else, yet winning at poker machines will happen to me…'
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EyePeaSea
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Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 11:18 am

Ferru123 wrote:The reasoning of addiction is more likely to be denial of habit.
Yes, that makes sense. It's probably why a pre-requisite to lots of addiction recovery regimes is to honestly admit to yourself that you have a habit.

Thanks for the link - it was an interesting read.

Regards

Ian
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