Stop loss working !!!

Advanced automation available in Guardian - Chat with others and share files here.
Post Reply
jasonc
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2015 5:20 pm

Any one want one ? Its for horses never tried it on anything else :D
Top
User avatar
MemphisFlash
Posts: 2161
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
Location: Leicester

i'll have one
Top
jasonc
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2015 5:20 pm

Ok, ill upload later today
Top
Blackrat70
Posts: 3
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2014 11:40 pm

Me too please.
Top
jasonc
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2015 5:20 pm

I use it on horse around 8 - 15, lay to win £10, stop loss amount is £40 at 3.15.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Top
DavDvo
Posts: 74
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:55 pm

On how many horses or races or days is it tested?
Thanks for sharing!
Top
jasonc
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2015 5:20 pm

Over three days or around 65 races/horses
Top
PeterLe
Posts: 3715
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

What sort of strike rate have you seen Jason?
Top
jasonc
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2015 5:20 pm

Based on what ive seen - I used to 3.75 (8-15price) saw 3 fire off early so lowered to 3.1 saw no misfires rest of the afternoon.

I think Stop loss on faves (35% or original price) youd see a lot more misfires
Top
LinusP
Posts: 1873
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

I did a quick backtest on 4 years of data.

Assuming you get matched at 3 on the back bet:
screenshot3.png
Assuming you get matched at 2 on the back bet:
screenshot.png
Of course this is far from ideal back testing but assuming you get matched above 2.95 its just about profitable.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Top
jasonc
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2015 5:20 pm

WHat are you talking about ??? Stop loss WILL not be profitable its designed to reduce your losses..... :roll:
Top
LinusP
Posts: 1873
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

The backtest is modelled on the following:

Lay £10 if bsp > 8 and < 15
If the price goes below 3.15 back £40 at 3 or 2

But of course you have no idea what price you will get matched at hence the two graphs. Or have I misunderstood the strategy?
Top
jasonc
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2015 5:20 pm

If you have to use the stop loss YOU WILL lose money but its less than you would have.

Lay horse for 11 at £10 (lia £100) horse starts to win price goes to 3.75 (assuming you get that price) Backs horse for £30.

2.75 * 30 = £82.50 remaining liability at £17.50, other runners had liabilty at around £20. So its better to lose £20 than £100.

Hope that makes it easier to understand, any questions just ask. :)
Top
NeilSpence
Posts: 78
Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2013 11:58 am

Linus,
Could you explain how you have back tested to get those results.
Isn't that the same as just backing the runners when they hit 3 and 2 for say £10??
Top
jasonc
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2015 5:20 pm

I think he was confused over what I was attempting, or more likely I didnt explain it clearly enough ! ;)
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Bet Angel - Automation”