Automating using Least Favourites / Longest Odds Selection

Advanced automation available in Guardian - Chat with others and share files here.
Post Reply
dkedwards
Posts: 13
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 9:18 am

Hi

Does anyone know if it is possible in guardian to select the least favourite horse in automation rules.

I have a number of rule files set up to back horse 1,2,3,4,5 etc in price order i.e. to dutch all except the last 1,2,3 depending on price and number of runners.

At the moment I look at each race case by case and select the rule for the number of selections I want to back for each race. Is it possible to back all selections other than xyz?

The reverse would be to select lay all selections other than horses abc but I can only see it can be done if I know the number of runners in each case.

Am I asking too much of Guardian?

Any comments gratefully received

DE
User avatar
jimibt
Posts: 3641
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

This would be possible using automation, however there are a few further questions you need to pose:

1. do you vary your stake per selection type
2. do you place on book%
3. do you manually green up based on some assumption
4. are there certain races that you avoid
5. is there a sweet spot for the number of runners and width of odds between 1st selection and last
6. is this setup pre-race or inplay
7. do you make a judgement at some point as to whether you're looking to lay or back the runners

I think these additional things probably happen as a mental process but would make a big difference to your final automation success. out of interest, when doing this manually, do you have a good strike rate? - the reason i ask as you'll need to really factor in the mental process 100% in order to automate it as if it were a natural manual action!
dkedwards
Posts: 13
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 9:18 am

Thanks jimibt for your quick reply.

You are right about a mental process but generally speaking:-

1) The stake is varied per selection by using rule parameters e.g. Place back bet @ best market price, by book %, stake £100. There is a separate rule for each selection in the rule file so Rule 1 is back position 1 (in order of favouritism), rule 2 is back pos 2 (ioof) etc. The maximum liability is therefore £100

2) If I am monitoring the race and in the very final stages it looks like an unbacked outsider will win I may attempt to green up (or red up to reduce max loss). However, I would like to build in a stop loss, or green up if profit is greater than £x as a next stage to totally automate.

3) I tend to avoid handicaps with very large fields (say 15 plus runners) especially if there is relatively little spread between the longest and shortest odds.

4) The answer is yes but I am still testing & documenting. I tend to go for quality races (group or listed) and with a reasonable traded volume. Probably between say 6 and 14 runners. I back the field bar 1-4 outsiders which gives an odds percentage of 90-98%. In reality the under round is about 5%. I use a quick odds % ready reckoner pinned to the wall to work at this under round given that you can have a couple of nags at 100-1+ which would distort things if not careful.

Many Maidens, Sellers, Apprentice races can be lucrative too given the not too large field and often a good spread of odds. Can vary between NH or flat too though!

Hope I haven't over-complicated the issue but still finding what works best and like you say a lot of it is intuition. If I have the time, I do the dutching manually in BA, but am hoping to get results on auto too if I can.

Cheers

Dave Edwards
dkedwards
Posts: 13
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 9:18 am

Forgot to say..
- All bets are placed 10-2 minutes before the off
- The only action I would take in play is to manually green up if it was looking that a non selection will win
- So far I back only (dutch)

DE
User avatar
jimibt
Posts: 3641
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

Dave -ok, will ponder those details, but as you say, intuition is usually key to the decision making process. However, if you pick purely on the technicals of the spread, then i think this could be achieved via trial and error using a signals based approach in the automation file.

will ping any further thoughts
huanhuangcn
Posts: 3
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2017 9:10 pm

Hi guys, very interesting discussion. please can you advise how to set the rule to find the least favourite?

Many thanks!

Huan
seanr19871
Posts: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2016 8:37 pm

huanhuangcn wrote:
Mon Feb 27, 2017 9:58 pm
Hi guys, very interesting discussion. please can you advise how to set the rule to find the least favourite?

Many thanks!

Huan
Huan - I’m interested to know if you found an answer the your question?
hussi.d
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2018 3:55 am

huanhuangcn wrote:
Mon Feb 27, 2017 9:58 pm
Hi guys, very interesting discussion. please can you advise how to set the rule to find the least favourite?

Many thanks!

Huan
How to select the least favorite pre-off in guardian automation?
Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

You already have your various rules for backing runners 1-6 in order of favoritism etc but you currently choose which one to select. Instead put them into one file and add a number of runners condition to each - so the rule for back runners 1-6 for instance can only fire if number of runners is 9, 1-8 if number of runners is 11 etc etc...
Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

huanhuangcn wrote:
Mon Feb 27, 2017 9:58 pm
Hi guys, very interesting discussion. please can you advise how to set the rule to find the least favourite?

Many thanks!

Huan
The least favorite in a 10 runner race is Selection 10 sorted in order of favoritism.
If you wanted to back or lay it then make you bet on selection 10 sorted in order of favritism and include 'number of selections equal to 10' as a condition.
You could create similar rules for any other number of runners in the one file.
Post Reply

Return to “Bet Angel - Automation”