Botty Challenges

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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:41 pm
How would you define slim? that to me is quite subjective
>0% and <1%
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:44 pm
>0% and <1%
& out of interest how are those figures generated?

I literally work on frequency & net ticks won/lost to determine "edge slimness" - hence that subjectivity
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 12:36 am
Using best price I find it almost impossible to find black numbers
For example today, I've been looking at testing the break of "x" price. Here were the results, ordered via the distance to entry:

2ticks to "x" = +84
3-10ticks to "x" = +237
10-20ticks to "x" = -4
20-30ticks to "x" = 6

I actually was surprised by those figures. But a move of at least 3 ticks, I'd have thought, guarantees a market order would have filled :) Moreover, for a manual trader, it's easier to spot vs a 2 tick move to a breakout

To me, a slim edge is the +6 on the 20-30 variation ;)
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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:51 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:44 pm
>0% and <1%
& out of interest how are those figures generated?
I always use simulated trading with greening and commission, I don't count ticks because they're all worth different amounts at different places. Ditto the effect of greening, depending what direction you're going.
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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 4:39 pm
2ticks to "x" = +84
2 ticks is noise not a distance ☺

I do all this analysis and come to a conclusion that just a tick or two per market most of the time and no big losses is all that's needed (iykwim). Then i think wtf am I doing it excel, I can find that looking at the ladder. :)
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 5:53 pm
I always use simulated trading with greening and commission
That's fair enough. Perhaps I'm too biased for simplicity on my spreadies ;)

Actually, that takes me back to when I'd have the full 9 yards: ticks, IP%, & greened p&l
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 5:58 pm
ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 4:39 pm
2ticks to "x" = +84
2 ticks is noise not a distance ☺

I do all this analysis and come to a conclusion that just a tick or two per market most of the time and no big losses is all that's needed (iykwim). Then i think wtf am I doing it excel, I can find that looking at the ladder. :)
Yeah true :)

Again I'd agree with that; but testing how the probability of a successful 2.0 break holding depending on the time it breaks, isn't something I really want to test manually watching the ladders. Unless you're a glutton for a sore wrist :)
spreadbetting
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 5:58 pm


I do all this analysis and come to a conclusion that just a tick or two per market most of the time and no big losses is all that's needed (iykwim).
Last edited by spreadbetting on Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 7:01 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 5:58 pm
ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 4:39 pm
2ticks to "x" = +84
2 ticks is noise not a distance ☺

I do all this analysis and come to a conclusion that just a tick or two per market most of the time and no big losses is all that's needed (iykwim). Then i think wtf am I doing it excel, I can find that looking at the ladder. :)
Yeah true :)

Again I'd agree with that; but testing how the probability of a successful 2.0 break holding depending on the time it breaks, isn't something I really want to test manually watching the ladders. Unless you're a glutton for a sore wrist :)
Is the goal to bot these things or to guide your manual trading? If you're not careful you'll end up like these guys who know everything about horses, you'll start to trust your statistics more than what you're seeing in the moment.

The biggest unknown in my calcs is always what effect, either good or bad, that I'll have on the outcomes. That wouldn't be an issue if we weren't talking about such small margins.
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:04 pm
Is the goal to bot these things or to guide your manual trading?
That is exactly right. I don't wanna be a full-on quant. But there are certain aspects to the market which I just cannot get my head around without excel (i.e. how other runners, affect other runners).
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:04 pm
If you're not careful you'll end up like these guys who know everything about horses, you'll start to trust your statistics more than what you're seeing in the moment.
Now I will grant that - so long as the trader is happy with their current discretionary profitability. But the best discretionary manual traders I know; have a significant excel backbone.

Mr. Discretionary trader: *2.0 breaks*; "Yup saw this last week, this steam feels strong. Lots of backing, yes, I feel this is steaming more."
Mr. Quant trader: *2.0 breaks*; "Given the fact this has come from 2.5, there's only a 5% chance this hits 1.95, therefore I'm lowering my stakes"

I'm a big fan of this geezer; 13:38 - 14:22 is where I'm coming from litterally :D (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azDga9p ... e&t=13m38s)
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:04 pm
you'll start to trust your statistics more than what you're seeing in the moment.
Personally, I find things like this difficult to spot - even spotting them in excel.

Image

But should these two breaks of 2.0 (could be a break of any price) (at exactly the same time) be treated the same? Do they have the same probability of holding under 2.0 to post time? Does one have potential to move further? etc etc

As Dante would say "I don't flipping know; go work it out; I wasn't born with this bloody knowledge" :)

I take my hat off to anyone who could answer those two questions from simply "watching the market", that guy/girl is a gifted trader imo
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mcgoo
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You know when you have been doing this too much when you are only 1 beer in and you look at the bots and they appear beautiful to you.... :shock: :D
Gawd..step away from the computer :oops: :lol:
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jimibt
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mcgoo wrote:
Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:41 am
You know when you have been doing this too much when you are only 1 beer in and you look at the bots and they appear beautiful to you.... :shock: :D
Gawd..step away from the computer :oops: :lol:
... you know you've been doing it too long when you're one beer in at 10:00 am

step away from that fridge!! :D
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mcgoo
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jimibt wrote:
Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:25 am
mcgoo wrote:
Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:41 am
You know when you have been doing this too much when you are only 1 beer in and you look at the bots and they appear beautiful to you.... :shock: :D
Gawd..step away from the computer :oops: :lol:
... you know you've been doing it too long when you're one beer in at 10:00 am

step away from that fridge!! :D
Brisvegas baby! Beer O Clock..then again it is only Wednesday :o :lol:
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ShaunWhite
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jimibt wrote:
Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:25 am
... you know you've been doing it too long when you're one beer in at 10:00 am
A little drop of brandy at 10am is a great way to round off a good night.
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