Botty Challenges

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mcgoo
Posts: 898
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:30 pm

Probably won't post too many results after this (for fear of becoming tiresome :? ) but made a tweak or 2 that has given me some more encouragement and hopefully this passes onto the other amateurs out there that feel it is never gonna come off.Days like this help :)..and truly..if I can (get this far-mainly due to this forum/software)..anyone can.All the best :mrgreen:
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mcgoo
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Well after years of trying...months of writing & weeks of watching+tweaking and pulling (very short and balding) hair out..and seeing a fatal flaw only yesterday(well there are 40+ rules :) )..just for today..so far... (all I have is today) ...it is truly a thing of functional beauty.. to me... :ugeek: :mrgreen: ..is it bad that I am 2 beers in on a Monday :shock: :lol: Cheers chaps and chapesses :) ..roll on tomorrow :ugeek:
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jimibt
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Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

mcgoo wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:28 am
Well after years of trying...months of writing & weeks of watching+tweaking and pulling (very short and balding) hair out..and seeing a fatal flaw only yesterday(well there are 40+ rules :) )..just for today..so far... (all I have is today) ...it is truly a thing of functional beauty.. to me... :ugeek: :mrgreen: ..is it bad that I am 2 beers in on a Monday :shock: :lol: Cheers chaps and chapesses :) ..roll on tomorrow :ugeek:
dang -sometimes on days like this and with comments like this wished i lived in Aus ;)

keep the fun rolling....
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mcgoo
Posts: 898
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:30 pm

jimibt wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:06 am
mcgoo wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:28 am
Well after years of trying...months of writing & weeks of watching+tweaking and pulling (very short and balding) hair out..and seeing a fatal flaw only yesterday(well there are 40+ rules :) )..just for today..so far... (all I have is today) ...it is truly a thing of functional beauty.. to me... :ugeek: :mrgreen: ..is it bad that I am 2 beers in on a Monday :shock: :lol: Cheers chaps and chapesses :) ..roll on tomorrow :ugeek:
dang -sometimes on days like this and with comments like this wished i lived in Aus ;)

keep the fun rolling....
:D :D :D
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mcgoo
Posts: 898
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:30 pm

So I have seen this message before and decided to ask a question about it as I can't figure out what went on (bearing in mind I have run this bot for months now).In this instance it made a huge % profit but it could have cost me huge % too :?
It went as follows:
I have fill or kill set and an opening bet was made by the bot:
$ 10.00 Lay bet placed on 9. With Gusto at 2.46. $ 7.68 matched at 2.46 $ 2.32 unmatched when it initially reached the market. Ref: 141136969959
So a partial match. No sweat , I have coded for this
then I see this in the log 1 second after the opening bet was made:
$ 4.44089209850063E-16 of unmatched bet (Ref:141136969959) was filled before remainder was killed. Position Closed therefore no offset/stop required.

..and true to the message: No offset was placed. I can see the price actually dipped against me and my Stop threshold was crossed but it was borderline in terms of timing so not sure if it would have closed out. So my question is what does "Position Closed therefore no offset/stop required." mean in this context?

On the positive side, it has made me question my profit targets :shock: :mrgreen:

Thanks in advance
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mcgoo
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Then you get caught by 2 early suspensions in one day..one pace race that starts more than 2 minutes early :shock: (at least according to the log) -good bye 2 days profit...and a dog race 30 secs early.... :shock: ..make 20% of the loss back. That kind of reliability can't be beaten :evil:
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

mcgoo wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:09 am
Then you get caught by 2 early suspensions in one day..one pace race that starts more than 2 minutes early :shock: (at least according to the log) -good bye 2 days profit...and a dog race 30 secs early.... :shock: ..make 20% of the loss back. That kind of reliability can't be beaten :evil:
Unfortunately that's one of the 'perks' of using a trading bot on Betfair, probably one of the reasons many of us try to keep to value based bots rather than trading ones.
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mcgoo
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spreadbetting wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:57 pm
mcgoo wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:09 am
Then you get caught by 2 early suspensions in one day..one pace race that starts more than 2 minutes early :shock: (at least according to the log) -good bye 2 days profit...and a dog race 30 secs early.... :shock: ..make 20% of the loss back. That kind of reliability can't be beaten :evil:
Unfortunately that's one of the 'perks' of using a trading bot on Betfair, probably one of the reasons many of us try to keep to value based bots rather than trading ones.
It seems so. I had another strange anomaly today where a lay bet was opened and fully matched in the log. The closing bet was placed but the stop loss / green up before the off didn't kick in (my unmatched bet counter didn't activate either :? ).There is no logic to that circumstance. Guardian didn't show any matched bets for the race but the Betfair P&L shows a winning lay bet :? The market looks to have started on time. There is reliability most of the time and I can see situations /markets where I am quite profitable but 1 or 2 events like in the last 2 days can really introduce a randomness of significant proportions. I have recovered 75% of the losing lay bet yesterday but I have reduced confidence in being able to to let bots run now. I have spent years refining bots and finally get to a point where I am confident in the logic but am now stymied by market suspensions and gremlins :roll: .I am curious to hear from other automaters/botters out there. Does it come out in the wash?..or have you given up and gone for value bets like spreadbetting? Cheers
spreadbetting
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Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

If you have a winning bot, on the whole you'd expect it to be placing the main value bet with its entry, rather than exit so over time you should come out in front given a large enough sample.

I've been botting well over 10 years and still have to tweak my code to try and account for Betfair's quirks. Not sure what data guardian keeps but you can always look thru your betting history for void lapsed bets to try and figure out why the closer wasn't matched. Many times you'll bet into a suspended market and need to resend if possible but so much depends on what you're doing as to how best to handle any blips.

You'll never fully omit unclosed trades though so you'll need to see if the frequency and your exposure mean it's worth the risk to you.
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mcgoo
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spreadbetting wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:00 am
If you have a winning bot, on the whole you'd expect it to be placing the main value bet with its entry, rather than exit so over time you should come out in front given a large enough sample.

I've been botting well over 10 years and still have to tweak my code to try and account for Betfair's quirks. Not sure what data guardian keeps but you can always look thru your betting history for void lapsed bets to try and figure out why the closer wasn't matched. Many times you'll bet into a suspended market and need to resend if possible but so much depends on what you're doing as to how best to handle any blips.

You'll never fully omit unclosed trades though so you'll need to see if the frequency and your exposure mean it's worth the risk to you.
Good advice.Thanks. 10 years gives me good context and hope :)
Out of interest: I have 12 rules to set the entry conditions..6 rules to enter and 27 close condition rules ( to manage open bets,partial matches b4 and after closing and to close before the off [multiple times] ) From what I could see in this particular instance the log recorded a fully matched bet and placed the closure bet. It didn't however detect the closure bet as unmatched. It also didn't run any of the pre-off green ups (didn't even seem to try) It should have, at worst, closed out before the off regardless of stop loss.I don't know if this was a lag(stuck) in the streaming or another error I have not considered but definitely perplexing..as was the message mentioned above about the offset bet not being required. I'll keep running and accept the quirks as you say and try to see something in the data. I guess its the nature of the game :) I love doing it anyway. Thanks again
spreadbetting
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I notice today there must have been some problem with the 11.09 Romford as it wasn't settled until 12:02 and some of my bets weren't matched but I won £49 on the market. If it was higher or more of them I'd try and track down the reason why but these type of things occur with a regular basis with the dogs and usually have some simple reason that you can't code for so I'll ignore today's blip.

Unfortunately that's the reality of botting and you do have to accept whenever you place a trade with a bot you're also gambling on the closing bet being matched/accepted. Always makes me smile when you see people with their theorectical winning botting strategies as there's a world of difference doing this on paper to doing it on Betfair.
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mcgoo
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spreadbetting wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:37 pm


Unfortunately that's the reality of botting and you do have to accept whenever you place a trade with a bot you're also gambling on the closing bet being matched/accepted. Always makes me smile when you see people with their theoretical winning botting strategies as there's a world of difference doing this on paper to doing it on Betfair.
Aint that the truth :D I remember having the rose tinted glasses re automation 9 years ago..and still now, my main issue is one of functionality + technical capability combined with process gremlins :shock: :? .It blows the mind how far theory is from practice at this lot.
I often imagine there must be a dev team out there as we speak -if not already done-developing a machine learning/AI based app/rig that is going to act like the high frequency trading apps in investment banks, that I saw in the UK nearly10 years ago..but much much better ..happily making millions...and yet here I am running bots on 90 markets in one day and ending up( a little ) profitable using my clunky coding ability :mrgreen: Its a funny old world :ugeek:
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mcgoo
Posts: 898
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:30 pm

Well almost made 100...99 markets yesterday and increased the little old bank by 10% and not one early suspension :shock: :mrgreen: :ugeek: ..step by step :) ....
PeterLe
Posts: 3715
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

McGoo - Just a thought but do you have virtual bets switched in the settings area?
If you do, try switching it off and then compare/contrast etc...(if you have a second account ie your own or you wifes, run one with it switched on and one with it switched off. Cross matching off generally gives the better trades in my experience (better entry, but sometimes because of the Cross matching you cant always trade out automatically at the price you want, but over time equals out)
Other things to look for; can you simplify in anyway the entry and exits triggers? (Similar to Occams razor)..In the past Ive built very complex systems that virtually never trigger! Strip out what you dont need (like a stranded plane in the desert with just enough fuel to get airborne!) The simpler systems are always the best.
You may be doing this already, but always green at the reverse price or just above it (makes a massive different over time)...

(Just an exercise, extract you bet history to excel for this bot and see what profits you would have made if they were straight backs or lays). This will give you an idea if you are entering at a value position and visa versa
Regards
Peter
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

It is interesting adding that metric.

I personally like the simplicity of Peter's (the other Peter ;) ) win formula ("(1*(DID IT WIN)-(1/ODDS))")

Below is a preoff edge I'm activity working on atm. What's interesting - is applying that formula to both the entry & exit prices.

Entry = -2.15%
Exit = -1.32%

Which, I believe, suggests money is being left on the table
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