Botty Challenges

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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Jul 18, 2018 3:36 pm
I thought you summed up the issue pretty well here:
Dallas wrote:
Sun Jun 18, 2017 1:26 pm
If you collected the information yourself you will notice you often get days with a bias of strong backing or laying in the market,
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:41 pm
Why does this happen? Without an underlying reason it's hard to believe it's any more than normal variance.
Jeez Si that was a year ago....I've wised up since.

You don't need to know why or even if it is going to persist.
1.If it is then great.
2.If it's just regular day afterall, then the std ups and downs make it a wash.
3.If it's actually the opposite kind of day that's a problem, but after 1 or 2 you'd lose confidence (score?) on the fact it was a 'backing or laying day''.

I was overthinking it rather than looking at outcomes. Nothing is certain, so in the above just try and make 3 < 1 with appropriate money management (stopping the losses where teh reverse is happening) and you're on the right side.

"you often get days with a bias of strong backing or laying in the market" is the part I accept is fact, or he wouldn't have said it!
Knowing why isn't top of my todo list and can only ever be speculation, but crowd psychology is a funny thing.
Last edited by ShaunWhite on Wed Jul 18, 2018 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jul 18, 2018 3:38 pm
ie just do what you did at 2.82....or do you get attached to your position? If so then you're not immune to the psycology afterall.
Not if the entry was a unique event that occurs only once per market (i.e. your pattern occured at a set time/volume range)
ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jul 18, 2018 3:38 pm
Or, When you backed at 2.82, it might have been worth planning to get out at 2.9
Well yeah, that's why I like spreadsheets. Imagine the pain of testing whether getting out at 2.9 differs from 3.0 manually! Unless you're a sadist for manual data capture (which I was btw ;) ).
ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jul 18, 2018 3:38 pm
Overtrading is a potential issue but riding losses hoping for a reversal doesn't make sense
You've just opened a can of worms with that statement :D Neither does cutting for a guaranteed loss, when there's potential for a retracement. I agree that taking lots of heat on the majority of entries; means the entry is indeed pretty shite. But improving that entry, could, completely eradicate the original edge.
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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Jul 18, 2018 3:55 pm
Neither does cutting for a guaranteed loss, when there's potential for a retracement.
It's just a loss on that interim stage not the whole market.

Take the small loss like a man and make it back when/if the retracment from an even higher level happens. :)

On at 2.8, out at 2.5 .... i don't need to be on the journey from 2.9 to 3 and back just to stubburnly prove my original idea was correct or not. Besides I can't possibly predict what the world will look like when it's at 3... that's fortune telling.
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:11 pm
Take the small loss like a man and make it back when/if the retracment from an even higher level happens. :)
This this is why I post :)

I hadn't actually thought of that!
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jul 18, 2018 3:53 pm
"you often get days with a bias of strong backing or laying in the market" is the part I accept is fact, or he wouldn't have said it!
Knowing why isn't top of my todo list and can only ever be speculation, but crowd psychology is a funny thing.
Same, the "why" doesn't really bother me, but knowing how to improve (insert anything tradable) does bother me. I see the "how" as a hedge against a change. I wanna be in this game for a long time :)
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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:04 pm
I wanna be in this game for a long time :)
The hardest way to make an easy living.

"Three years to make this work, or look a joke and be broke"

It's the only tune I know that mentions spread betting :)

"In spread betting it's easy to draw a small fortune, start with a big fortune and lose a small fortune"
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mcgoo
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Bloody hell-just watched a pace runner go from 2.80 to 12 pre-off :shock: My bot was on the wrong end of a late move but only losing 44c (predominantly backing)on that express train is a win I reckon. ;)
Loving these stored values ..add the signal(s) combination and you can microwave yer brain :o . Horse botty looking even more beautiful :D -let's hope that translates to :mrgreen:
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jimibt
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Location: Narnia

mcgoo wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:11 pm
Bloody hell-just watched a pace runner go from 2.80 to 12 pre-off :shock: My bot was on the wrong end of a late move but only losing 44c (predominantly backing)on that express train is a win I reckon. ;)
Loving these stored values ..add the signal(s) combination and you can microwave yer brain :o . Horse botty looking even more beautiful :D -let's hope that translates to :mrgreen:
i guess what you're saying is that by watching the races from a few hours out, you can look at a range (say 2.00 to 3.50 odds) and monitor if they escalate out to more than double their initial values. from there, you can look to place a medium sized back bet to take it into the pre race 5-10 mins in the expectation that it will steam back down, even if only by a few odds...
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mcgoo
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jimibt wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:30 pm
mcgoo wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:11 pm
Bloody hell-just watched a pace runner go from 2.80 to 12 pre-off :shock: My bot was on the wrong end of a late move but only losing 44c (predominantly backing)on that express train is a win I reckon. ;)
Loving these stored values ..add the signal(s) combination and you can microwave yer brain :o . Horse botty looking even more beautiful :D -let's hope that translates to :mrgreen:
i guess what you're saying is that by watching the races from a few hours out, you can look at a range (say 2.00 to 3.50 odds) and monitor if they escalate out to more than double their initial values. from there, you can look to place a medium sized back bet to take it into the pre race 5-10 mins in the expectation that it will steam back down, even if only by a few odds...
Normally would agree-but should have added timescale to my description..this was within roughly 2 mins.Horse must have shot itself in the hoof :shock:
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jimibt
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mcgoo wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:37 pm
jimibt wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:30 pm
mcgoo wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:11 pm
Bloody hell-just watched a pace runner go from 2.80 to 12 pre-off :shock: My bot was on the wrong end of a late move but only losing 44c (predominantly backing)on that express train is a win I reckon. ;)
Loving these stored values ..add the signal(s) combination and you can microwave yer brain :o . Horse botty looking even more beautiful :D -let's hope that translates to :mrgreen:
i guess what you're saying is that by watching the races from a few hours out, you can look at a range (say 2.00 to 3.50 odds) and monitor if they escalate out to more than double their initial values. from there, you can look to place a medium sized back bet to take it into the pre race 5-10 mins in the expectation that it will steam back down, even if only by a few odds...
Normally would agree-but should have added timescale to my description..this was within roughly 2 mins.Horse must have shot itself in the hoof :shock:
sounds like it threw the jockey or got itself into a sweat... either way, good opportunity perhaps, even if it were one taken with a view to taking it IP, given that the odds jump was irrational and the calculation being that it may even settle down to intial values... singal and SV's to test i guess ;)
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mcgoo
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smoother...
horses.PNG
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mcgoo
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My word...writing bots is easy. Refining them is a bloody art form :shock: .I keep seeing things I've missed .Then the damn thing is profiting but the geek in you knows it is not working right(cos you've found the subtle error)..quandary... :D I need more VM's! :ugeek: Stored values and signals=awesome capability to put bots on a string. ...I could be doing this for [more] years :lol:
anyway...gold hills and all that ;)
PS: Spent 3 days writing a 48 rule bot..last night I wrote 20 of them.Nearly broke my head. :D Wife very disinterested. Glad I am off to Fiji in a week or 2...I can kayak, drink beer, snorkel etc and look (slightly)more manly to my family :lol:
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mcgoo
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Always such a kick in the nethers when it drops that much on one bloomin day :shock: :evil:
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sionascaig
Posts: 1068
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Strangely my dog bot took a downward turn at the start of the world cup and has not recovered... Just wondering if there is something different about the markets in the summer - certainly wasn't expecting it - what could possibly be different in the summer for dogs!
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mcgoo
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Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:30 pm

sionascaig wrote:
Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:44 am
Strangely my dog bot took a downward turn at the start of the world cup and has not recovered... Just wondering if there is something different about the markets in the summer - certainly wasn't expecting it - what could possibly be different in the summer for dogs!
Hot..dogs :)? dunno mate.I certainly can't explain how things turn...maddening :) :ugeek:
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