Signals And Following Sheep!!!!

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mhorro
Posts: 22
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire
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Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:10 pm

I mainly trade horse racing and have automation with many signals to sport movement on either side of the book from 15 minutes
out. I examine everyone of the logs and look for patterns and try to correlate with different races i.e. class 1 2 distance. I am now the firm believer that horses drifting or steaming in is just people ( sheep ! ) following the market trend. In other words just because a horse drifts does not mean it's is not going to win. Maybe back horses that drift just before the off to get the best price!

Trading the movement before in-play yes but using it to qualify winning and losing horses I say no. I tested this over 2 days and made a healthy profit one day and losing day the following.

So I am not following the sheep anymore!!!!!!! :D

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Crazyskier
Posts: 391
Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm

Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:26 pm

mhorro wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:10 pm
I tested this over 2 days and made a healthy profit one day and losing day the following.
So I am not following the sheep anymore!!!!!!! :D
Sample size is everything when drawing conclusions

CS

RicHep365
Posts: 79
Joined: Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:42 am

Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:42 am

mhorro wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:10 pm
I mainly trade horse racing and have automation with many signals to sport movement on either side of the book from 15 minutes
out. I examine everyone of the logs and look for patterns and try to correlate with different races i.e. class 1 2 distance. I am now the firm believer that horses drifting or steaming in is just people ( sheep ! ) following the market trend. In other words just because a horse drifts does not mean it's is not going to win. Maybe back horses that drift just before the off to get the best price!

Trading the movement before in-play yes but using it to qualify winning and losing horses I say no. I tested this over 2 days and made a healthy profit one day and losing day the following.

So I am not following the sheep anymore!!!!!!! :D
Depends where in the trend you jump on it, if you get on the drift/steam early enough you will definitely win over time.

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ShaunWhite
Posts: 1807
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:21 pm

RicHep365 wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:42 am
mhorro wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:10 pm
. I am now the firm believer that horses drifting or steaming in is just people ( sheep ! ) following the market trend. In other words just because a horse drifts does not mean it's is not going to win. Maybe back horses that drift just before the off to get the best price!
Depends where in the trend you jump on it, if you get on the drift/steam early enough you will definitely win over time.
You'd certainly be up trading if you get on moves early enough but if straight betting then I'm not sure you're right.

At what point in time is the price closest to true value? Remember you can't assess that on a race by race basis as it's impossible to know. Just curious about when you thought it was.

RicHep365
Posts: 79
Joined: Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:42 am

Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:15 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:21 pm
RicHep365 wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:42 am
mhorro wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:10 pm
. I am now the firm believer that horses drifting or steaming in is just people ( sheep ! ) following the market trend. In other words just because a horse drifts does not mean it's is not going to win. Maybe back horses that drift just before the off to get the best price!
Depends where in the trend you jump on it, if you get on the drift/steam early enough you will definitely win over time.
You'd certainly be up trading if you get on moves early enough but if straight betting then I'm not sure you're right.

At what point in time is the price closest to true value? Remember you can't assess that on a race by race basis as it's impossible to know. Just curious about when you thought it was.
I run a system which does exactly that, backs as trends start, sometimes it gets it wrong of course but as long as you get it right more than 50% of the time (beating BSP) you will win by letting them run. It's volatile, so certainly not for the faint hearted. Been doing it for 5 years, I've had losing months, but 11 out of 12 are up and when it's firing on all cylinders in the peak of the flat season, it's amazing.

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ShaunWhite
Posts: 1807
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:26 am

RicHep365 wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:15 pm
I run a system which does exactly that, backs as trends start, sometimes it gets it wrong of course but as long as you get it right more than 50% of the time (beating BSP) you will win by letting them run. It's volatile, so certainly not for the faint hearted. Been doing it for 5 years, I've had losing months, but 11 out of 12 are up and when it's firing on all cylinders in the peak of the flat season, it's amazing.
Credit where it's due Ric if that's the case. Spotting the start of a trend or knowing what BSP will be, is the holy grail for several ways to profit.

What I don't get is that for your system to work you have to be showing an unrealised trading profit at the off? And if you are assuming BSP represents true value then where is the additional profit from letting them run vs taking the profit (or at least a free bet) before they run? Having money, even free money, sat on a horse just seems to increase your volatility.

I'm sure you've done all the numbers but is this what you're doing?
Spot downward trend so Back at 5.0 for 100.
Horse starts at 4.0 so happy days, you let it run. You've got value.

You could green for 25
Or have a free 100 bet at 4.0 and pocket 25 per race
Or leave the 100 on at 5.0 with a 1 in 4 strike rate (bsp) and make 25 per race.

Obviously you're not going to give too much away but where have I gone wrong in the maths?

Derek27
Posts: 601
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:21 am

When a horse drifts substantially, it is often people following sheep, or traders desperately closing their trades, and on many occasions the price will be well above the horses true chances of winning.

But sometimes the horse will really have virtually no chance of winning. For example, I've seen a few colts have erections in the paddock and they usually finish tailed off in the race. People who study form, watch the races and are clued-up as to what's going on will be a step ahead of you.

I'm not suggesting that you can't create a gambling bot with a slight edge. But if I was going to go back to punting and let bets run I would rather do it properly and have enough information to make an informed decision of what true value is. Without that, and nothing more than a mere speculation of why a horse has drifted I would cash in my chips and move onto the next race.

LinusP
Posts: 1259
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

Sun Jan 14, 2018 6:54 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:26 am
RicHep365 wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:15 pm
I run a system which does exactly that, backs as trends start, sometimes it gets it wrong of course but as long as you get it right more than 50% of the time (beating BSP) you will win by letting them run. It's volatile, so certainly not for the faint hearted. Been doing it for 5 years, I've had losing months, but 11 out of 12 are up and when it's firing on all cylinders in the peak of the flat season, it's amazing.
Credit where it's due Ric if that's the case. Spotting the start of a trend or knowing what BSP will be, is the holy grail for several ways to profit.

What I don't get is that for your system to work you have to be showing an unrealised trading profit at the off? And if you are assuming BSP represents true value then where is the additional profit from letting them run vs taking the profit (or at least a free bet) before they run? Having money, even free money, sat on a horse just seems to increase your volatility.

I'm sure you've done all the numbers but is this what you're doing?
Spot downward trend so Back at 5.0 for 100.
Horse starts at 4.0 so happy days, you let it run. You've got value.

You could green for 25
Or have a free 100 bet at 4.0 and pocket 25 per race
Or leave the 100 on at 5.0 with a 1 in 4 strike rate (bsp) and make 25 per race.

Obviously you're not going to give too much away but where have I gone wrong in the maths?
Greening involves crossing the spread, this is costly over the long term, sometimes (normally) enough to remove the edge or reduce it considerably. I find inplay greening doesn't have that much of an impact and can help iron out pnl but pre play things are very different.

As an example, one of my strategies has an edge of 5.5% when just laying, if I green at the off this reduces to less than 0.15%, also the SP doesn't always accurately represent the true odds as on average I only beat SP by 2%.

Screen Shot 2018-01-14 at 06.51.53.png
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RicHep365
Posts: 79
Joined: Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:42 am

Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:14 am

LinusP wrote:
Sun Jan 14, 2018 6:54 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:26 am
RicHep365 wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:15 pm
I run a system which does exactly that, backs as trends start, sometimes it gets it wrong of course but as long as you get it right more than 50% of the time (beating BSP) you will win by letting them run. It's volatile, so certainly not for the faint hearted. Been doing it for 5 years, I've had losing months, but 11 out of 12 are up and when it's firing on all cylinders in the peak of the flat season, it's amazing.
Credit where it's due Ric if that's the case. Spotting the start of a trend or knowing what BSP will be, is the holy grail for several ways to profit.

What I don't get is that for your system to work you have to be showing an unrealised trading profit at the off? And if you are assuming BSP represents true value then where is the additional profit from letting them run vs taking the profit (or at least a free bet) before they run? Having money, even free money, sat on a horse just seems to increase your volatility.

I'm sure you've done all the numbers but is this what you're doing?
Spot downward trend so Back at 5.0 for 100.
Horse starts at 4.0 so happy days, you let it run. You've got value.

You could green for 25
Or have a free 100 bet at 4.0 and pocket 25 per race
Or leave the 100 on at 5.0 with a 1 in 4 strike rate (bsp) and make 25 per race.

Obviously you're not going to give too much away but where have I gone wrong in the maths?
Greening involves crossing the spread, this is costly over the long term, sometimes (normally) enough to remove the edge or reduce it considerably. I find inplay greening doesn't have that much of an impact and can help iron out pnl but pre play things are very different.

As an example, one of my strategies has an edge of 5.5% when just laying, if I green at the off this reduces to less than 0.15%, also the SP doesn't always accurately represent the true odds as on average I only beat SP by 2%.


Screen Shot 2018-01-14 at 06.51.53.png
The interesting thing with my strategy is that while I beat the SP more often than not, the % I beat the SP by is far higher for the horses that win than the losers, almost 9%, Which tells me that I'm also picking up smart money moves. Bizarrely If I greened up before the race I'd barely scrape a profit.

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ShaunWhite
Posts: 1807
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:28 am

Thanks, interesting. It's clearly a fine line.

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