Laying 4th Favourite

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BigJ
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:33 am

Hi

Looking to lay the 4th Fav according to SP.
I've use the Back & Lay at SP automation file which kind of works. The problem arises when odds are close together and the 4th favourite changes between the rule arming/triggering and actual SP. i.e i might lay the 4th favourite but at the off it's moved to 3rd favourite.

Does anyone know a way around this please?

Thanks

Jordan
BigJ
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:33 am

Hi

Does anybody have any thoughts on this? Essentially i'm looking to lay the actual 4th favourite based on sp. What is the best way to do this?

Thanks
weemac
Posts: 1216
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:16 pm

If you mean pre-race, you can't. SP is formed after the race has started,
BigJ
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:33 am

weemac wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:47 pm
If you mean pre-race, you can't. SP is formed after the race has started,
looking to take the SP on the 4th favourite. What is the easiest way to do that?

Thanks
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

You can fix the order of the selections with a rule.
BigJ
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:33 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 8:45 pm
You can fix the order of the selections with a rule.

The way I have done it is Lay the 4th favourite 15 seconds before the off at 1.01 and then at 5 sec before convert that to the Take SP rule. On both rules i select 4th favourite under the general tab. This does work for the most part but on occasions the 4th favourite might change between my first rule triggering and the actual SP being determined, hence i sometimes end up laying the 3rd or 5 favourite.
Shaun is this the way you are referring to, or something different? If different which rule are you using?

Thabks
phrenetic
Posts: 45
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 5:11 pm

If you want to guarantee that you are on the 4th fav, then you would have to wait for the race to go inplay and then select the 4th fav according to the published BSP odds.

If you are betting before the off, there is no way to guarantee that you will be betting on the (eventual) 4th fav. All you can say is that you placed a bet on the 4th fav AT THE TIME OF BETTING.
BigJ
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:33 am

phrenetic wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:06 pm
If you want to guarantee that you are on the 4th fav, then you would have to wait for the race to go inplay and then select the 4th fav according to the published BSP odds.

If you are betting before the off, there is no way to guarantee that you will be betting on the (eventual) 4th fav. All you can say is that you placed a bet on the 4th fav AT THE TIME OF BETTING.
ok thanks that makes sense. Should I just change the timings of the rule and away from Take SP to best market price?

Thanks
BigJ
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:33 am

phrenetic wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:06 pm
If you want to guarantee that you are on the 4th fav, then you would have to wait for the race to go inplay and then select the 4th fav according to the published BSP odds.

If you are betting before the off, there is no way to guarantee that you will be betting on the (eventual) 4th fav. All you can say is that you placed a bet on the 4th fav AT THE TIME OF BETTING.
HI
Currently my bot lays the 4th favourite at the time of arming the trigger not necessarily the 4th favourite according to SP. Although I arm at 0 seconds and 75% of the time i get the SP 4th favourite, too many times It end up laying the wrong horse because prices have moved.

You mention I should select the 4th favourite according to BSP odds, which function does this within Bet Angel please?

Thanks
BigJ
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:33 am

Currently my bot lays the 4th favourite at the time of arming the trigger not necessarily the 4th favourite according to SP. Although I arm at 0 seconds and 75% of the time i get the SP 4th favourite, too many times It end up laying the wrong horse because prices have moved.

You mention I should select the 4th favourite according to BSP odds, which function does this within Bet Angel please?

Thanks
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

You can lay the 4th fav according to bsp but of course you'd have to do that after the start of the race once bsp has been calculated and obviously that price is not guaranteed to be matched once inplay.

If you need to lay at anytime before the start then you're not going to be able to predict what the odds are likely to be later.

I'm surprised you find that the 4th has changed between scheduled off time and actual race time as often as you're experiencing.
BigJ
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:33 am

Thanks Shaun the problem is slightly different in that the 4th fav is not always lay. For example some results have shown that 3rd or 5th fav has been lay instead of the 4th fav. I don't know if it's odds moving or another problem but my bot definitely states 4th favourite and sometimes doesn't get laid.

It looks like the bot will take the 4th fav but not based on BSP rather market price at the time of arm/trigger. What is the way around this i.e how do I take best market price of the 4th favourite according to BSP?

Thanks
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

When are you placing your bet, is it before or after the SP is calculated?
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

I think the actual answer to your question is that you can't.

When you place a bet on BF they need to know what horse you want to bet on. They don't deal with a whole bunch of conditions like, the one that's going to be 4th fav, or one with a price below x, or whatever other things people have dreamnt up.

BA could figure out those conditions and place your bet, but for your requirement, not until the BSP is known. Sadly you can't place a bet on BF after the BSP is known, at BSP or at a best price the market was at some time in the past. To be able to bet at bsp once a race has already started (and bsp has been calculated) would be a dream.

Another reason BF need to know what horse you're on is that all Take SP bets go into a pool from which BSP is calculated. They therefore couldn't cancel a bet after that calculation if you didn't like it anymore, because that could affect the BSP. Imagine the scenario where your horse is 4th fav without your bet and 5th with your bet.

Depending on the race type you might be able to place it a little later than the advertised start time to avoid the very late moves. If you can find some data on how late races run it's almost certainly going to be a bell curve and you might find being 30s late on races with stalls misses almost none.

Another option for you would be to have a rule that greens your bet if the horse isn't 4th fav after the start. Ie Green all if number of matched bets on the 4th is zero. Run it from IP+1s, allow 3 triggers and about a 3s re-arm time to be sure of best equalisation.

It's not as good as canceling but the ups and downs should eventually cancel out over time. Unless you're accidentally picking a lot of ones that are especially fast or slow away. If that is the case, there's a new angle to explore.
BigJ
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:33 am

Thanks for your in-depth answer.

I've been looking at all of the rule types and there is one called "fix the order of market selections". I'd not seen this until yesterday but sure it's probably been there for a while.

If I've understood the rule correctly ( I possibly havent) I think the following could work.
By arming at in play time 0 secs and then place a lay bet trigger on 4th fav at 3 sec in play time.

Does anybody think this could work? Will maybe test it today and play around with timings as I don't know how quick BSP is established.

Thanks
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