Automation and Greening
- MemphisFlash
- Posts: 2161
- Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
- Location: Leicester
bit of advice. no bot is ever 100%. losses occur.
one other small data point that might be useful to look at is to flag up whether the main runner is ever challenged for the top spot. if this happens (i.e. the 2nd fave comes in but then drifts out again), then you may want to ignore that race. you can measure this by setting a signal to track the runners and only back the fave it it has never been challenged in its lead. i will say tho that this alone will probably not be enough to take your profits up the the required level. beyond this, you could look at the other mechanical factors involved in the final stages of the race, such as the book% spinning out as the other runner odds all adjust at the close. you could also think about this rule as a lay based rule and lay 2-3 runnersthat have never been in contention but are still within decent odds (i.e <8-12 odds).
just another way to view this...
Just to add on to what Jimibt has just said, below are a few bots from the shared files section which should give you some further ideas on how to implement these suggestions
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=15573
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=12026
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=11715
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=15573
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=12026
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=11715
- MemphisFlash
- Posts: 2161
- Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
- Location: Leicester
this is one of my bots this morning.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
yes a decent start. try experimenting with values where one is x% below 100% and another is an equal %age ABOVE 100% and see if the results vary. play with these attributes and values and you'll soon start to see how small differences in trigger time and odds will occur. from that, you should start to see how you can use those to home in on your desired outcome. plan your moves on paper as some sort of flow chart and break it down into the smallest working unit for each *step*. that way, you can fix problems quickly and also, if something in a unit/block works, you can use it elsewhere.
i don't think you'll get many hits on your rule below about 96-97% (you may be thinking about the lay side). you may find it interesting to see how it works when you go the other way (up to say 115-120%)
as part of experimentation on seeing what happens (both on back and lay type bets), then yes. in theory, when the back book% is high, it means that the back prices on offer are being suppressed (in bookie circles, it's called bookie vig and is how bookies make their money). the interpretation of this will in truth depend on a few other conditions that you have in place. even then, a well executed rule doesn't always go to plan. create a variety of rules based on your current version and make small changes to each and compare how they do by runnning several versions of BA in tandem. only once you have a handle on how conditions interact, will you be able to really assert that having a conditon set at xx% will work.