Horse drifting in running

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badboy13
Posts: 45
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:33 pm

If a horse is drifting in running, if you wanted to lay it when it last traded at say 12, what would be best way to do this to reliably get a match?
mickypaul72
Posts: 115
Joined: Tue May 15, 2018 1:52 pm

Betfair will always match you at the best price available you could have a strategy that lays greater than 12 and be matched at 6 although I’m sure there might be some on here who might know a few tips and tricks.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

badboy13 wrote:
Mon Jan 21, 2019 11:02 pm
If a horse is drifting in running, if you wanted to lay it when it last traded at say 12, what would be best way to do this to reliably get a match?
Other than just hoping the money at 12 is there for more than a second or two, the only way to get more matches would be to lay at a bigger price than 12, when it's already at 12 or lower.

The fact is though that you won't get matched a lot of the time, and of the ones that do match fully, about 8% will come back and win (if 12.0 was the right price at the time). It's the type of strategy you can only test by getting involved and working out over say 50 races, how matching, not matching and part matching are affecting your theoretical figures. In-play strategies are much tougher to implement than pre-play ones and drifting in-play runners are especially tricky. You need to be pretty sure it's not going to turn around and win, at exactly the same time as someone else believes that's exactly what is going to happen.
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