Bet Angel - Automation : Excel - predict SP

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PeterLe
Posts: 3443
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Fri Mar 15, 2019 7:27 pm

Does anyone have a view as to whether the predict SP cells in betangel are accurate please?
I not interested in decimal point accuracy (ie not the actual numbers), i'm just looking at predicting whether the SP odds are one of two things - under or above 100%
Thanks in advance
regards
Peter

Atho55
Posts: 119
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm

Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:09 pm

Are you looking for these
BSP.png
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PeterLe
Posts: 3443
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:22 pm

Atho55 wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:09 pm
Are you looking for these

BSP.png
HI, Thanks for the reply.
Yes kind of

I was just interested to know that when book percentage of the odds of "Predict SP" (ie1/odds1 + 1/odds2..etc) equalled above 100%; they were in fact above 100% when the SP was produced (if that makes sense!)

I was more looking for a general comment, ie someone who has checked it over many races, eg, It was monitored over 1000 races and in 800 instances where the predict SP was thought to be >100% it was..

Thanks
regards
Peter

sa7med
Posts: 313
Joined: Thu May 18, 2017 8:01 am

Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:17 pm

PeterLe wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 7:27 pm
Does anyone have a view as to whether the predict SP cells in betangel are accurate please?
I not interested in decimal point accuracy (ie not the actual numbers), i'm just looking at predicting whether the SP odds are one of two things - under or above 100%
Thanks in advance
regards
Peter
have been looking into similar myself, I can update you in a few days if i have something definitive

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Dallas
Posts: 11585
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
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Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:54 pm

Something to note about the Projected SP is Betfair only update it once every minute regardless of the refresh rate used

sa7med
Posts: 313
Joined: Thu May 18, 2017 8:01 am

Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:58 pm

Dallas wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:54 pm
Something to note about the Projected SP is Betfair only update it once every minute regardless of the refresh rate used
Well that affects things. Good to know. Thanks!

sa7med
Posts: 313
Joined: Thu May 18, 2017 8:01 am

Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:07 pm

Just did a quick crunch on 1171 races over the last three months. Brought up last recorded predicted sp vs BSP. PSP only less than 1 43 times.

MIN MAX
Avg BSP 1.000971971 0.941149992 1.045993599
Avg PSP 1.018107963 0.759747707 1.064906877
#PSP < 1 43
Correlation 0.27944338

send me a pm if youd like to see the sheet

PeterLe
Posts: 3443
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:55 pm

sa7med/Dallas
Thanks for the reply
I only have a small sample rate of 581 events, but I've decided that Im going to include it in the mix.
To keep track, Ill fire in a small lay bet at 1.01 on events that have a predicted SP of less than 1..so I can check what would have been..
Thanks again
regards
Peter

firlandsfarm
Posts: 438
Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:00 am

PeterLe wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:55 pm
sa7med/Dallas
Ill fire in a small lay bet at 1.01 on events that have a predicted SP of less than 1..so I can check what would have been
Hi Peter, would be interested to know if that works I raise this because sometimes I find my 'unmatched - BSP' bets don't get taken up into BSP. I've not researched it in depth so cannot state definitively but I've had a suspicion that it has mostly happened when the stake is 'small' and/or the odds of the unmatched bet are a long way from the BSP. Maybe an emotional coincidence but as I said I would be interested in your success rate of getting bets placed.

PeterLe
Posts: 3443
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:41 am

firlandsfarm wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:00 am
PeterLe wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:55 pm
sa7med/Dallas
Ill fire in a small lay bet at 1.01 on events that have a predicted SP of less than 1..so I can check what would have been
Hi Peter, would be interested to know if that works I raise this because sometimes I find my 'unmatched - BSP' bets don't get taken up into BSP. I've not researched it in depth so cannot state definitively but I've had a suspicion that it has mostly happened when the stake is 'small' and/or the odds of the unmatched bet are a long way from the BSP. Maybe an emotional coincidence but as I said I would be interested in your success rate of getting bets placed.
Hi, Actually you may be right, the liability for a lay bet is higher (it states £10 liability for a lay and £2 for a back bet in the T&C's, although Ive had small bets at SP on the back side). Anyway, Ill think of something

Incidentally, there were 23 races yesterday where the SP was greater than 100%
Regards
Peter
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