How to discover profitable automation strategies?

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Atho55
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Only advice I could add would be to particularise the data you want to compile to make the future search easier and quicker. You can dispense with splitting your data into blocks and the Slicer feature in Excel lets you select your criteria via a button style interface.
Strategy Search.jpg

The screenshot, Sandown, September, Rank 5 as sorted by BSP. You can now consider how likely it is to do well tomorrow or at any other Sandown meetings this month. A small step forward from a stab in the dark.
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wearthefoxhat
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Atho55 wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:03 pm
Only advice I could add would be to particularise the data you want to compile to make the future search easier and quicker. You can dispense with splitting your data into blocks and the Slicer feature in Excel lets you select your criteria via a button style interface.

Strategy Search.jpg


The screenshot, Sandown, September, Rank 5 as sorted by BSP. You can now consider how likely it is to do well tomorrow or at any other Sandown meetings this month. A small step forward from a stab in the dark.
Nice tables.

I could spend some time testing out some lay data on that spready.
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firlandsfarm
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:45 pm
Access and SQL are great but quite a learning curve if you're not used to that world. But there's a perfectly adequate way to do it using just excel.
I agree on SQL Shaun, the most pernickety language I have ever had the misfortune to use but no competitor! But Access? It's drag-and-drop! I didn't find any problem getting stuck in on day one! And you can start to dabble with SQL while cruising on Access. :)
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Derek27
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:35 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:45 pm
Access and SQL are great but quite a learning curve if you're not used to that world. But there's a perfectly adequate way to do it using just excel.
I agree on SQL Shaun, the most pernickety language I have ever had the misfortune to use but no competitor! But Access? It's drag-and-drop! I didn't find any problem getting stuck in on day one! And you can start to dabble with SQL while cruising on Access. :)
Create a simple query with two or three connecting tables, add a few conditions or filters, click on the SQL tab and the code looks absolutely horrendous. :lol:
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firlandsfarm
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:17 pm
firlandsfarm wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:35 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:45 pm
Access and SQL are great but quite a learning curve if you're not used to that world. But there's a perfectly adequate way to do it using just excel.
I agree on SQL Shaun, the most pernickety language I have ever had the misfortune to use but no competitor! But Access? It's drag-and-drop! I didn't find any problem getting stuck in on day one! And you can start to dabble with SQL while cruising on Access. :)
Create a simple query with two or three connecting tables, add a few conditions or filters, click on the SQL tab and the code looks absolutely horrendous. :lol:
But why look at the code if you are a newbie to the technology? It will work perfectly from the drag-and-drop design screen! You don't need to know how an internal combustion engine works to be able to drive a car. :)
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ShaunWhite
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:17 pm
Create a simple query with two or three connecting tables, add a few conditions or filters, click on the SQL tab and the code looks absolutely horrendous. :lol:
:) it's like recording excel macros, 30 lines of code for what you could do in 3. I don't do anything very fancy in SQL. My code just does basic writes and time seq reads for collection or doing a sim, but I dump it to excel to do any analysis. Mainly for the visualisatons and it's familiar. I know you can get software to do that directly from sql but there's only so many days in a year and always too much to learn and do. Compared to Liam my tech skills look pretty outdated.

Tbh data is only the start, it's learning how to use it that's the hard part. Sample sizes, normal distribution, statistical significance etc all take some homework. Even knowing that the Law of Large Numbers is a mathematical 'thing' and the Law of Averages is no more than a commonly held belief isn't knowledge you get at school.

There's not much point finding out some subset is value if it's within the normal range of natural varience. In fact following anomalies like that is more likely to produce worse results than having no data and sticking a pin in the Racing Post.
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Derek27
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Better not look at the code then. :)

I've got some tremendously complexed queries courtesy of Betfair's $6000 NSW limit that probably wouldn't be so complex if I built them from scratch. Thankfully, my databases aren't likely to get large enough to force me to move to SQL.
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ShaunWhite
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 5:07 pm
Better not look at the code then. :)

I've got some tremendously complexed queries courtesy of Betfair's $6000 NSW limit that probably wouldn't be so complex if I built them from scratch. Thankfully, my databases aren't likely to get large enough to force me to move to SQL.
Excel is hard to beat. That's why even if I had terabytes of data I'd just extract some to play with rather than use it all at once. But not surprisingly there's a whole world of software for doing analytics on sql but picking the right one and then learning it is time consuming. It's always easier to add stuff to your ToDo list than it is to cross things off. I started trading for the easy life and it's more work than a proper job was most days.
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firlandsfarm
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 5:31 pm
Excel is hard to beat. That's why even if I had terabytes of data I'd just extract some to play with rather than use it all at once. But not surprisingly there's a whole world of software for doing analytics on sql but picking the right one and then learning it is time consuming. It's always easier to add stuff to your ToDo list than it is to cross things off. I started trading for the easy life and it's more work than a proper job was most days.
Excel is great for analysing but no good for making extractions from the databank in my opinion. It maybe because I will look over data for as far back as I can go to make sure it's a consistent trend and not just a 12 month freak in the variance. How/Where do you store your long term data Shaun? You can't store 2gb a day in Excel, can you!
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abgespaced
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A lot of great points here and I will add that it's very tempting to put the cart before the horse. Just this morning I was watching YouTube videos about statistical significance, proportions, sample sizes etc. I was determined to approach my theory from a statistical standpoint.

But I eventually got frustrated when I realised I don't have the background skills or knowledge to ask the right question as to which statistical model to use. So I just did what I know how and plugged all the data into a graph in Excel and immediately got the picture I was looking for. So it was actually a blessing in disguise.

I'm sure I'll get into formulas and statistics and stuff later down the track. But for now I don't think my questions are complicated enough to warrant that kind of approach.
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Kai
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:06 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:54 pm
I'm the opposite of you Shaun. I always keep hard drive backups but too quick to permanently delete data (especially emails) that I later need.
Manual vs auto init. Your edge is is in your head, mine is in an SSD.
Well put. I keep mine safely stored inside my muscle memory, the body's equivalent of an SSD :mrgreen:

Which helps free up the head for more important things! So there's a lot of empty storage space there, just the way I like it :D
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Realrocknrolla
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Is there anyone that could point me in the correct direction to back test a lay the football correct score strategy.

I am interested in the strike rate over a period of time/games.

Thanks in advance as always!

I am not excel or program competent.

Cheers

Micky
puntinrolls
Posts: 70
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:01 pm

gazuty wrote:
Tue Sep 01, 2020 7:14 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:29 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:25 pm
that is a very encouraging list or a door slammer.
Automation is as easy as manual trading.
Automation is as difficult as manual trading.

Delete as applicable.
Directed at the OP - old hands already know what follows

Actually I think the key to automation is all captured in these lyrics (played forward not backwards)

And if you listen very hard
the tune will come to you at last
when all is one and one is all
to be a rock and not to roll

////

And if you listen very hard - poetic licence, listen, watch observe the markets
the tune will come to you at last - you will notice things that you can exploit
when all is one and one is all - they might be quite simple things, you only need one thing (I have one main idea that accounts for 99% of my profits)
to be a rock and not to roll - don't think you need to copy other people
Like it.

How long between from when you noticed things that you can exploit to when you had your profitable bot.

btw I'm at the noticing/building bot stage.
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