Arbitrage and Affiliate commissions

General chatter about that dark and cold world of only back betting.
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pdupre1961
Posts: 410
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2011 8:01 pm
Location: Morden, London

Can anybody explain clearly how affiliate commissions work. Especially, want to know about Betfair and UK bookmakers considering all the 'FREE' offers out there.

I'm thinking that somebody must be making money from me betting (and losing) at Bookmakers when I place a back bet at say BET365 and lay off on Betfair for a small profit.

Paul
nomadic
Posts: 72
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2009 12:17 am

If you arbitrage between Betfair and a bookmaker (Bet365 in your example) and lock in a profit for yourself, then it is the bookmaker that is losing out in the long run. Sure, the losing side of your arb may sometimes be on the bookmaker's side (giving them a short term gain in that particular instance), but in the long run, those are losing bets for the bookmaker.

Also, be very careful: if it's rather clear to the bookmaker that you're only placing bets when the odds are higher with them than at Betfair, then you will very quickly be identified as an arber, and find your maximum bet amount with them severely limited.
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

I agree with nomadic, you won't last long I'm afraid

I had a cracking 2-3 months of earning brilliant money through arbing. I had 14 betting accounts, but now just have 2. The others either closed me down, or restricted me to £2 stakes
Marshy10
Posts: 30
Joined: Sun Apr 24, 2011 7:44 am

Hi Nomadic,

"Sure, the losing side of your arb may sometimes be on the bookmaker's side (giving them a short term gain in that particular instance), but in the long run, those are losing bets for the bookmaker."

Can you please explain why in the long run these bets are bad for the bookmaker?
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Dobbin
Posts: 222
Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2009 5:46 pm
Location: Glasgow

Hi there

There is a Service out there that can make you money continually from "Free" Bookmaker bet offers
Boing
Posts: 134
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:06 pm

There are loads, all getting a backhander from the bookies no doubt, but you will get closed down very quickly when you do it. Nice idea but doesn't work long term.

Don't think Paul was asking that though. I think he was looking at the overall impact. I guess its a marketing cost for the bookies.
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pdupre1961
Posts: 410
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2011 8:01 pm
Location: Morden, London

Yeh, what I was asking -

Is anybody making money out of my losing bets, whether with the bookie or Betfair.

I do not remember how I signed up for each bookmaker or Betfair as it was 2010, but I must have gone to their site originally via another website.

So are there affiliate commissions being paid out for my losses...
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Dobbin
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Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2009 5:46 pm
Location: Glasgow

Boing wrote:There are loads, all getting a backhander from the bookies no doubt, but you will get closed down very quickly when you do it. Nice idea but doesn't work long term.

Don't think Paul was asking that though. I think he was looking at the overall impact. I guess its a marketing cost for the bookies.
I only know of one and it does make money over the long term.
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CaerMyrddin
Posts: 1271
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am

Yeh, what I was asking -

Is anybody making money out of my losing bets, whether with the bookie or Betfair.
On average the bookies will be losing against you, not the opposite. They will eventually limit you, but it's a nice way to pump your bank in the meanwhyle.
nomadic
Posts: 72
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2009 12:17 am

pdupre1961 wrote:Yeh, what I was asking -

Is anybody making money out of my losing bets, whether with the bookie or Betfair.

I do not remember how I signed up for each bookmaker or Betfair as it was 2010, but I must have gone to their site originally via another website.

So are there affiliate commissions being paid out for my losses...
Hi Paul - in short, yes, to my knowledge it's possible that an affiliate could possibly get some % of the amount you bet, and as far as I know, it probably doesn't depend on whether or not you lose your bet.

My understanding is that most affiliate agreements just give back a small % of the amount bet. Since the bookmaker has full control over the odds set (and not the affiliate), they are generally taking the risk, and if the bookmakers set odds that create an arb opportunity, well, that's the bookmaker's fault and beyond the control of the affiliate.

Unless of course the affiliate starts abusing the arrangement to facilitate his friends/relatives to only bet on arb opportunities... then the affiliate agreement could get terminated... then again, perhaps not... the marketing guys at bookmakers are not always the brighest bulbs and may not necessarily fully grasp the concept of "arbitrage" (the key point being that the department where the actually bookies work is usually in control of decisions to limit players, but the marketing department is usually in charge of concluding affiliate agreements)
nomadic
Posts: 72
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2009 12:17 am

Marshy10 wrote:Hi Nomadic,

"Sure, the losing side of your arb may sometimes be on the bookmaker's side (giving them a short term gain in that particular instance), but in the long run, those are losing bets for the bookmaker."

Can you please explain why in the long run these bets are bad for the bookmaker?
Hi Marshy - well, let's look at this way: if you put commissions aside, if you randomly bet on everything on Betfair where there was a fully liquid market (i.e. no gap between the back and lay prices), in the long run you probably either roughly breakeven or probably incur a slightly negative return (after commission of course, it would be a few percent less).

But what if you only bet on objects where you were offered odds that were 5% or more higher than what was on offer on Betfair - and there was also no commission? You might lose in the short run (if you are simply unlucky), but chances are you would win in the long run...

Perhaps your question comes from the assumption that bookmakers like to "balance" their books, and only move their odds to keep this balance? It's a popular misconception, but that's not really the case. Most punters (especially those that stick with using traditional bookmakers) overwhelmingly enjoy betting on favorites. And especially rarely bet on the draw.

In order for bookmakers to even potentially balance their books, they would have to increase the odds on the draw and on the underdog to such heights that it would exceed probability. But if you have the cash, it works out more profitably in the long run just to leave the book unbalanced and pocket big offsetting profits when the underdog wins or the result is a draw.
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pdupre1961
Posts: 410
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2011 8:01 pm
Location: Morden, London

Obviously, I need to go into more detail...

I'm a new punter and place £1,000 into bookie accounts and lose all this money over time, however my Betfair account is up by £1350.

This was due to using bookie welcome bonuses and playing arbitrage / matching back bets with lay bets on Betfair.

OK, so the bookies are up by £1,000 - do they keep all this money OR is some of it paid to the affiliate who told me which bets to place.

If so, how much could he/she make on £1,000 lost bets?
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Dobbin
Posts: 222
Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2009 5:46 pm
Location: Glasgow

Hi there

Just go to the bookies sites and look at the Affiliates details and commissions for becoming one

http://www.paddypartners.com/home
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pdupre1961
Posts: 410
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2011 8:01 pm
Location: Morden, London

Bookie affiliate program
There is no negative balance carryover. Any negative balances are reset to zero at the start each month. When a player wins money at an online casino, they generate negative revenue, which translates into negative commissions for affiliates. We do not carryover this negative balance and resets an affiliate's commission balance to zero at the beginning of the next month. The account will start fresh and affiliates can profit from their promotional efforts, disregarding any previous negative balance.
Commissions paid are based on net losses per month - so the new clients only generate commissions if they lose more than any other client wins...

Therefore in the example above, I may have made up to £300 for the bookies' affiliate.

However, I would still like to hear from someone with experience of bookies affiliate commissions.
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