Mister Man
Let's say that you repeatedly bet at odds of 2.1 on the toss of an unbiased coin.
IMHO:
A. That's not gambling.
B. With sensible staking, there's naff all chance of you coming out behind over 1,000 such bets.
C. That's essentially what a trader who has an edge does (albeit with a much smaller edge).
Would you agree?
Jeff
Betfair's activities in the market
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mister man
- Posts: 363
- Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2010 2:10 pm
i agree jeff, that would give you an edge
its clearly why only 1-2% of punters make a long term profit, because these traders dont advertise the markets where 2.1 on a coin toss is available, even those selling info...
it would seem we have at best 98% gamblers and 2% traders in that case, which in my book makes it overwhelmingly, gambling. looking at it realistically and int he round and for the majority,its gambling
im with evertonian...
its clearly why only 1-2% of punters make a long term profit, because these traders dont advertise the markets where 2.1 on a coin toss is available, even those selling info...
it would seem we have at best 98% gamblers and 2% traders in that case, which in my book makes it overwhelmingly, gambling. looking at it realistically and int he round and for the majority,its gambling
im with evertonian...
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mister man
- Posts: 363
- Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2010 2:10 pm
ok jeff..
so 98% of traders are rubbish, heck HERES A THOUGHT they might as well be gambling at those success rates, which of course at 2% SUCCESS RATES THEY ARE..lol
happy trading (it feels a lot nicer calling it that doesnt it, than that nasty nasty word gambling)
so 98% of traders are rubbish, heck HERES A THOUGHT they might as well be gambling at those success rates, which of course at 2% SUCCESS RATES THEY ARE..lol
happy trading (it feels a lot nicer calling it that doesnt it, than that nasty nasty word gambling)
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evertonian
- Posts: 81
- Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 10:34 am
Jeff,
Do you know what the historical price over 10 years of a top 4 team scoring against a bottom 4 team after 70 minutes is ? 58% there or there abouts - Odds of 1.72
Do you know the historical price of Arsenal scoring against a bottom 4 team after 70 minutes over the past 10 years ? different to 1.72
Do you know the historical price of Man Utd scoring against a bottom 4 team after 70 minutes over the past 10 years ? different to 1.72
Both top 4 teams Arsenal and Man U - both have a greatly different chance of scoring historically in the last 20 minutes.
The fact is you don't need to know.
Soccer mystic will tell you the average price yes, but how likely is the chance going to be the same over the next 10 years ?
What football statistics won't tell you is what happens in the future. The past can not be relied on to produce the same chance in football.
So your edge in the past is not guaranteed in the future. This isn't to say that there are edges in football ; there are otherwise myself and other traders would not make a profit from them.
Therefore the football markets in play there is no true price in my humble opinion for a next goal. It is made up of averages that are way higher / way lower. The key to beating those markets is to work out whether the price is higher or lower than that average and laying / backing accordingly. So in effect you are gambling as you have no true edge - you are taking advantage of moving prices - that is true trading football in play. A goal and you will lose money.
Your theoretical historic edge will in my humble opinion not exist therefore in the future.
Do you know what the historical price over 10 years of a top 4 team scoring against a bottom 4 team after 70 minutes is ? 58% there or there abouts - Odds of 1.72
Do you know the historical price of Arsenal scoring against a bottom 4 team after 70 minutes over the past 10 years ? different to 1.72
Do you know the historical price of Man Utd scoring against a bottom 4 team after 70 minutes over the past 10 years ? different to 1.72
Both top 4 teams Arsenal and Man U - both have a greatly different chance of scoring historically in the last 20 minutes.
The fact is you don't need to know.
Soccer mystic will tell you the average price yes, but how likely is the chance going to be the same over the next 10 years ?
What football statistics won't tell you is what happens in the future. The past can not be relied on to produce the same chance in football.
So your edge in the past is not guaranteed in the future. This isn't to say that there are edges in football ; there are otherwise myself and other traders would not make a profit from them.
Therefore the football markets in play there is no true price in my humble opinion for a next goal. It is made up of averages that are way higher / way lower. The key to beating those markets is to work out whether the price is higher or lower than that average and laying / backing accordingly. So in effect you are gambling as you have no true edge - you are taking advantage of moving prices - that is true trading football in play. A goal and you will lose money.
Your theoretical historic edge will in my humble opinion not exist therefore in the future.
Thanks Evertonian
Let's say the Man U are playing Wigan and score. Do you think something like the following?
'Statistically, we know from a very large sample of games that the true odds of United winning are, on average, are x in this sitation. Therefore, I'll assume that those stats apply to the current game. They might not do so, but over a large number of bets they'll average out at x. So as the current odds are a higher than than x, I'll place a bet'.
Jeff
Let's say the Man U are playing Wigan and score. Do you think something like the following?
'Statistically, we know from a very large sample of games that the true odds of United winning are, on average, are x in this sitation. Therefore, I'll assume that those stats apply to the current game. They might not do so, but over a large number of bets they'll average out at x. So as the current odds are a higher than than x, I'll place a bet'.
Jeff
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evertonian
- Posts: 81
- Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 10:34 am
In my humble opinion with something like that then this is what you need to consider :
What are you taking into account ? Are you taking into account only games between Man U v Wigan in your sample ? Are you taking into account teams that are ranked in the same "zone" as Man U ( i.e top 4 teams against bottome 4 teams ) ? How far does your sample go back ? Will it take into account games played years back ? If so, players were different - game times were different , weather was different ? This is why finding an edge like that is so difficult in my humble opinion, and therefore you're gambling because you're basing your opinion on historical facts.
In my opinion, this is not the way to do it. Watch the game. Analyse what's going on - again still gambling but the difference is youre actually seeing what you're gambling / trading on. You also by trading in play have the opportunity to cut losses / run profits if a trade is going your way. Id be extremely grateful if there are other football traders out there join this discussion. I realise it's getting late but tomorrow other opinions / thoughts would be gratefully appreciated as I'm sure people have different opinions on how to trade the football succesfully.
What are you taking into account ? Are you taking into account only games between Man U v Wigan in your sample ? Are you taking into account teams that are ranked in the same "zone" as Man U ( i.e top 4 teams against bottome 4 teams ) ? How far does your sample go back ? Will it take into account games played years back ? If so, players were different - game times were different , weather was different ? This is why finding an edge like that is so difficult in my humble opinion, and therefore you're gambling because you're basing your opinion on historical facts.
In my opinion, this is not the way to do it. Watch the game. Analyse what's going on - again still gambling but the difference is youre actually seeing what you're gambling / trading on. You also by trading in play have the opportunity to cut losses / run profits if a trade is going your way. Id be extremely grateful if there are other football traders out there join this discussion. I realise it's getting late but tomorrow other opinions / thoughts would be gratefully appreciated as I'm sure people have different opinions on how to trade the football succesfully.
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lilgreenback
- Posts: 211
- Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 11:28 am
Would trading or gambling in the football markets be just as risky pre-off? Slower moving markets granted but no time-delay or a goal going against you to contend with.
What LeTiss has said is something I was wondering
If this is the case however you dressed it up it still amounts to cheating (allegedly), in some ways you reap what you sow. How often have the suspensions or technical issues hit everyone else following thier upgrades etc."
I thought I may have been way off the mark as no one else commented, if BF are using a trading arm to maximise their profits then I would hazard a guess that they have the odds or their edge tipped in their favour.
What LeTiss has said is something I was wondering
What I added from the @29's thread, "If Betfair have been playing within their own markets is it not a little like Insider Trading (or share dealing). Could they not also be benefitting in other ways such as very little or no time delay when opening/closing positions (unlike everyone else). Again allowing themselves the maximum opportunity to benefit from their systems.LeTiss 4pm wrote: What I think is totally wrong, is that BF are hoovering up money in markets before anybody else. That to me sounds like insider trading and shouldn't be allowed
If this is the case however you dressed it up it still amounts to cheating (allegedly), in some ways you reap what you sow. How often have the suspensions or technical issues hit everyone else following thier upgrades etc."
I thought I may have been way off the mark as no one else commented, if BF are using a trading arm to maximise their profits then I would hazard a guess that they have the odds or their edge tipped in their favour.
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
BF shouldn't be allowed to do any trading on their own markets (for an 'exchange' it would be a clear conflict of interest). the capability to front run etc. is obviously theirs and theirs alone, and the temptation would always be there. I think it unlikely that they would take such a risk with the business as it would be a huge scandal if it were uncovered.
I agree Frank - Betfair would be take a huge risk if they were to frontrun.
And I imagine there are guys who use software to monitor everything that goes on in the market, and would be able to work out pretty quickly if Betfair were front running their orders.
Jeff
And I imagine there are guys who use software to monitor everything that goes on in the market, and would be able to work out pretty quickly if Betfair were front running their orders.
Jeff
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2046
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I said before in another post and I will post it again here.
Betfair brought in XM way before they announced it IMHO. In fact I am sure they were ticked off for not announcing it before implementing it but I stand to be corrected on that point.
They realised very quickly that some very savvy people were hoovering up errors in the market. This was performed in such a way that generated commission was very low. There was also the problem of bots hammering the servers.
Attack 1. Introduce data charges to stop the bots etc. Fair enough, no problem with that. Result = Software was improved and it didn't sufficiently line Betfair's pockets.
Attack 2. Having failed with data charges they went for the premium charge. Obviously it wasn't enough to satisfy Betfair's needs. Result = Betfair had to think again.
Okay so Plan B...if you can't beat 'em join 'em!
Attack 3. XM via the back door to see if they could replicate the traders' methods and basically hoover up the slush in the market. As already mentioned they see the money entering the market, ergo, they see the error before anyone else and can hoover it up. Result = Hey boys we're onto a winner here now how do we make it hard for traders, errmmm, competition, ermmm, smart clients aka WINNERS?
Attack 4. Keep XM and apologise smugly for not announcing it was being used. Introduce even higher PC to dissuade the WINNERS from using Betfair.
Whilst all of this was brewing the site remained unstable, we suffered crashes, accounts were frozen without reason etc etc etc.
Basically Betfair are poacher and gamekeeper only they don't take the odd fish, they trawl the whole river with a drag net!
Rant over!
Betfair brought in XM way before they announced it IMHO. In fact I am sure they were ticked off for not announcing it before implementing it but I stand to be corrected on that point.
They realised very quickly that some very savvy people were hoovering up errors in the market. This was performed in such a way that generated commission was very low. There was also the problem of bots hammering the servers.
Attack 1. Introduce data charges to stop the bots etc. Fair enough, no problem with that. Result = Software was improved and it didn't sufficiently line Betfair's pockets.
Attack 2. Having failed with data charges they went for the premium charge. Obviously it wasn't enough to satisfy Betfair's needs. Result = Betfair had to think again.
Okay so Plan B...if you can't beat 'em join 'em!
Attack 3. XM via the back door to see if they could replicate the traders' methods and basically hoover up the slush in the market. As already mentioned they see the money entering the market, ergo, they see the error before anyone else and can hoover it up. Result = Hey boys we're onto a winner here now how do we make it hard for traders, errmmm, competition, ermmm, smart clients aka WINNERS?
Attack 4. Keep XM and apologise smugly for not announcing it was being used. Introduce even higher PC to dissuade the WINNERS from using Betfair.
Whilst all of this was brewing the site remained unstable, we suffered crashes, accounts were frozen without reason etc etc etc.
Basically Betfair are poacher and gamekeeper only they don't take the odd fish, they trawl the whole river with a drag net!
Rant over!
