Betfair trading strategies : Winning Warlock be careful of wrong horse data

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northbound
Posts: 344
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:36 pm

phrenetic wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:34 pm
Whilst I can't speak about DOBbing per se, I would say that their % movement calculation is correct. If you have a horse at 4/1 then half its price would be 2/1 - turn that into decimal odds and you are talking 5.0 and 3.0 (not 5.0 and 2.5).
I'm sure that the website owner provides that rating / percentages table as a resource for dobbers. So we can't really put dobbing aside in this discussion.

In fractional odds terms you're right, but I'm sure that most people when they see on that website that a horse traded inplay at 50% BSP, they think that if BSP was 5.00, the horse traded at 2.50 or below inplay.

Which is clearly not the case with Winning Warlock's figures.

In any case, not a biggie.

phrenetic
Posts: 40
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 5:11 pm

Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:05 pm

I didn't speak about DOBbing per se as I am not sure of the official definition of DOBbing - it's not something that I have ever done.

If DOBbing is defined as trading at 50% of the BSP odds (i.e. trading at BSP odds / 2), then I assume you can never DOB using a horse that has a BSP less than 2.0

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northbound
Posts: 344
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:18 pm

phrenetic wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:05 pm
If DOBbing is defined as trading at 50% of the BSP odds (i.e. trading at BSP odds / 2), then I assume you can never DOB using a horse that has a BSP less than 2.0
Almost correct, basically you can never DOB using a horse with BSP < 2.02.

spreadbetting
Posts: 1326
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:09 pm

I'd always had the same opinion as phrenetic that dobbing referred to horses trading at half their odds in running not half their BSP , there's a big % between getting a 2.02 shot down to 1.01 as opposed to getting 100 down to 50. I'd imagine most people using those stats are expecting 50% of the true odds not BSP.

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Dallas
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Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:51 pm

The term DOBing stands for 'Double or Bust' and is used to describe a runner who's odds have traded at 50% of its BSP (or 50% below the price when backed) because at 50% odds you can green up for the value of your stake - hence you have doubled your money (bust if it does not reach 50%).

it's not the change in 'Implied percentage' which is a lot of people get caught out.

So a runner backed at 8.0 that trades at 4.0 has traded at 50% and therefore DOB'ed
Using implied percentage the change from 8.0 to 4.0 is only 12.5%

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northbound
Posts: 344
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Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:00 pm

Dallas wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:51 pm
So a runner backed at 8.0 that trades at 4.0 has traded at 50% and therefore DOB'ed
Precisely.

Hence my point that a website like Winning Warlock misleads people by stating that a runner has traded at 42% when it drops in odds from 8.00 (BSP) to 4.00 (IPMIN).

It leads users to believe that the runner traded much lower inplay (42% of BSP) than it has (50% of BSP).

phrenetic
Posts: 40
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 5:11 pm

Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:38 am

If the Winning Warlock site is aimed at DOBbing then I agree.

It seems to me that there are three terms being used here:

1. Traded At
Current Odds / Original Odds
As in "the horse traded at 50% of its BSP"

2. % Odds Mvt
((Current Odds - 1) / (Original Odds - 1)) * 100
As in "the odds on the horse reduced by 50%"

3. Implied % Mvt
(100 / Current Odds) / (100 / Original Odds)
As in "the chance of winning increased by 12.5%"

It's like the discussion about tick movement, where some people seem to view a "tick" as 0.01 whereas others relate it purely to the Betfair odds ladder - so a move from 4.40 to 4.30 is seen as a 10 tick movement by some people and a 1 tick movement by others.

spreadbetting
Posts: 1326
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:56 pm

Dallas wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:51 pm
The term DOBing stands for 'Double or Bust' and is used to describe a runner who's odds have traded at 50% of its BSP (or 50% below the price when backed) because at 50% odds you can green up for the value of your stake - hence you have doubled your money (bust if it does not reach 50%).
Fair enough, Dallas, that makes sense, someone needs to have a word with that ignorant Warlock guy :)

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northbound
Posts: 344
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:19 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:56 pm
Fair enough, Dallas, that makes sense, someone needs to have a word with that ignorant Warlock guy :)
:lol:

I believe the Warlock guy is far from ignorant. In fact, my suspicion is that his "special" formula is used to make dobbing look easier than it is.

A few years ago, I remember a website called Daily Donkey that advised lays and showed consistent profits. After further inspection, you could see he used industry SP prices to calculate his P/L, rather than Betfair's best lay prices at inplay time.

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