My Pet Hate when trading...and a good example today

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PeterLe
Posts: 3715
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Ive tried manual trading for so many years, but always come back to automation.
If you get it right it can pay off, Ive just sat down after sitting the garden with some friends and this last race shows what I mean.
Running on auto: It only traded £320 on the last race and it returned a lovely green. If I had been trading that one manually I would have traded out when it was £8 or £9, (I had to sit on my hands), So I recon I got twice as much out of that than I would have done if I'd been trading manually. They dont all work like that but Im in for the long game.
Yesterday I checked my results and I filed and sorted by bet type (ie back or lay) and then by bet ref, I took the last traded back price and worked out what my profit would have been if I hadnt scalped but instead fired the offset 50 ticks above (ie not going to get matched); took SP and then greened 1 sec after in play. i would have almost quadrupled my P&L
Thats why I think I have a much better day if I switch the screen off and let it do its thing; plus its nicer sitting in the garden drinking! :)
Regards
Peter
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jimibt
Posts: 3641
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

PeterLe wrote: Thats why I think I have a much better day if I switch the screen off and let it do its thing; plus its nicer sitting in the garden drinking! :)
Regards
Peter
i'll drink to that - and agreed 1000%, emotionless trading but always refining *offline*
stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Beyond my simple annoyance about these examples, my post did have a certain point (from a trading theory side).

These ones always leave me scratching my head. Why does the market drift these ones that will rapidly shorten?

Often, the ones that do this seem to me to be obvious that they should shorten, but the market refuses and drifts the selection....only to hammer it back in at a later point.

I'm puzzled, but wishing to know some underlying reasons better for these?
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

You have to remember not everyone playing the market is trading. You need to be looking at exploiting short term trends or a taking a long term view of where the market will go. The money will never come into the market in an orderly manner so one persistent layer may move the market the opposite direction you want for a variety of reasons. They may simply wish to oppose the horse, mainpulatng markets or be trying to lay off an earlier liability and others follow them. You may even have read the market wrong, there's plenty of reasons for graphs to go up and down, that's where we make our money ;)
andyfuller
Posts: 4619
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm

Spreadbetting has pretty much said it all with his comments about not quitting at some arbitrary time that is meaningless and that the market is made up of a lot of people who are approaching it with entirely different reasons to you.

The only thing I would add is that if you thought it was value back price at your initial back price if it has drifted it is likely to now be even better value so if anything you should be backing it more and not red'ding out.
stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Yes both, I can see that's a good point about the range of different players (and not just traders) influencing the markets and moves.

Sometimes easy to think it's all only about trading moves, when of course there are also big backers/layers moving prices too.

One thing about that latter point though Andy, when you say the bigger price after the drift, maybe go in more - the only problem is that I often find myself thinking 'is someone laying this for a dodgy reason' or similar...we all know racing isn't exactly known for being a straight sport.

In addition, adding more would be breaking my max stake often, so not an option sadly.
andyfuller
Posts: 4619
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm

Peter Webb has been running for some time a value bot I believe that has shown consistently good profits. I suggest you don't be so paranoid about market moves, this is where automation would help as it would remove the emotion and thoughts such as - someone must know something.

As for the max stake issue that is fair enough, I was just highlighting that if you thought it value before, if nothing but the price has changed then you should be looking at it as even better value now.

Best of luck!
stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

andyfuller wrote:Peter Webb has been running for some time a value bot I believe that has shown consistently good profits. I suggest you don't be so paranoid about market moves, this is where automation would help as it would remove the emotion and thoughts such as - someone must know something.

As for the max stake issue that is fair enough, I was just highlighting that if you thought it value before, if nothing but the price has changed then you should be looking at it as even better value now.

Best of luck!
You're almost certainly right that it's merely 'seeing demons' where there are non in reality in many of these cases. If I had an unlimited bank would love to be smashing some of these big drifters like you suggest. But then, I wouldn't be trading anyway! :lol:

Unfortunately, by the time this happens in my markets I'm often already at my max liability, and overstaking is definitely something I do not want to repeat (bad experiences in the past with that one).
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