Betfair trading strategies : General Accepted Observations: Races, Horses and Tracks

Interested in learning to trade on Betfair. Check out this section for advice, knowledge and discussion on trading strategies.
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wearthefoxhat
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Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:40 pm

Using the good ole Adrian Massey Website (yes still going strong)

All Weather races: Handicaps; Clear and Jt favourites records UK&Ire (4 Years from 2016 - 2019 inclusive)

AWRHcaps.GIF

So racetype and course covered, with AWR, the surface/draw is gonna play a factor. Mostly, apart from a couple of bends, they act like a greyhound track and so some other hypothesis can be made specific to each track. - ie: Trainers that specialise, poor quality horses taking their turn to win, age of horse.

Gambles do occur, so market moves are important to observe.

Then a decision to back or lay comes into it too.
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jimibt
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Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm

Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:00 pm

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:40 pm
...Then a decision to back or lay comes into it too.
tbh, this was obscurely the rationale for my raising this thread back up. Rather than a speculative *why or how*, i was thinking, *wouldn't it be nice if there were some very broad but hard facts that governed each course*.

The idea behind it being that one could then apply their individual logic layers on top of each characteristic (of the course). The end game here isn't to present a definitive guide that says *always back the fave in Windsor*... it's more about, *hmmm - based on this course, I can really see x,y but not z happening here*.

anyway, a lad can dream :D

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Euler
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:14 pm

If you can identify value pre-off, trading in-play effectively multiples that return and vice versa.

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jimibt
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Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm

Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:23 pm

Euler wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:14 pm
If you can identify value pre-off, trading in-play effectively multiples that return and vice versa.
Veering off to the left... I have done some work (and still do) with a lovely couple from Kent who visit the parade/paddocks (pre race) as assess the fitness and thus the real odds of the runners in a broad spectrum of races (last week, they were in Newcastle for the 2 days and made spectacular gains based on their specialist knowledge). They no doubt literally also take into account the course (and the finish in particular) when re calibrating the *real* odds.

We've developed an opinionated formula that spits out the odds for such races and bets are placed against those where the variance between the BF odds and the *real* odds breach a threshold. It is spectacular to see it in action!!

So many cats to be skinned!

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gptuk
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Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:16 am

BigJ wrote:
Sat Jul 08, 2017 9:44 am
megarain wrote:
Sat Jul 08, 2017 9:30 am
This list could be endless .. but, v v useful.

From experience, I know a few things.

Hardest tracks, for bookies to win at (meaning, favs/gambles, win a LOT)

Windsor
Uttoxeter
Leicester

//

The art of paddock analysis has largely been lost. If u can accurately assess an un-raced animals fitness, u can make a living wage.
Thanks
Conversley does the list have tracks where favs have a poor record ?

Atho55
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Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:11 am

This might help...


Rank 1 Data.7z
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