Winning Warlock be careful of wrong horse data

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northbound
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phrenetic wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:34 pm
Whilst I can't speak about DOBbing per se, I would say that their % movement calculation is correct. If you have a horse at 4/1 then half its price would be 2/1 - turn that into decimal odds and you are talking 5.0 and 3.0 (not 5.0 and 2.5).
I'm sure that the website owner provides that rating / percentages table as a resource for dobbers. So we can't really put dobbing aside in this discussion.

In fractional odds terms you're right, but I'm sure that most people when they see on that website that a horse traded inplay at 50% BSP, they think that if BSP was 5.00, the horse traded at 2.50 or below inplay.

Which is clearly not the case with Winning Warlock's figures.

In any case, not a biggie.
phrenetic
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I didn't speak about DOBbing per se as I am not sure of the official definition of DOBbing - it's not something that I have ever done.

If DOBbing is defined as trading at 50% of the BSP odds (i.e. trading at BSP odds / 2), then I assume you can never DOB using a horse that has a BSP less than 2.0
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northbound
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phrenetic wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:05 pm
If DOBbing is defined as trading at 50% of the BSP odds (i.e. trading at BSP odds / 2), then I assume you can never DOB using a horse that has a BSP less than 2.0
Almost correct, basically you can never DOB using a horse with BSP < 2.02.
spreadbetting
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I'd always had the same opinion as phrenetic that dobbing referred to horses trading at half their odds in running not half their BSP , there's a big % between getting a 2.02 shot down to 1.01 as opposed to getting 100 down to 50. I'd imagine most people using those stats are expecting 50% of the true odds not BSP.
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Dallas
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The term DOBing stands for 'Double or Bust' and is used to describe a runner who's odds have traded at 50% of its BSP (or 50% below the price when backed) because at 50% odds you can green up for the value of your stake - hence you have doubled your money (bust if it does not reach 50%).

it's not the change in 'Implied percentage' which is a lot of people get caught out.

So a runner backed at 8.0 that trades at 4.0 has traded at 50% and therefore DOB'ed
Using implied percentage the change from 8.0 to 4.0 is only 12.5%
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northbound
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Dallas wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:51 pm
So a runner backed at 8.0 that trades at 4.0 has traded at 50% and therefore DOB'ed
Precisely.

Hence my point that a website like Winning Warlock misleads people by stating that a runner has traded at 42% when it drops in odds from 8.00 (BSP) to 4.00 (IPMIN).

It leads users to believe that the runner traded much lower inplay (42% of BSP) than it has (50% of BSP).
phrenetic
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If the Winning Warlock site is aimed at DOBbing then I agree.

It seems to me that there are three terms being used here:

1. Traded At
Current Odds / Original Odds
As in "the horse traded at 50% of its BSP"

2. % Odds Mvt
((Current Odds - 1) / (Original Odds - 1)) * 100
As in "the odds on the horse reduced by 50%"

3. Implied % Mvt
(100 / Current Odds) / (100 / Original Odds)
As in "the chance of winning increased by 12.5%"

It's like the discussion about tick movement, where some people seem to view a "tick" as 0.01 whereas others relate it purely to the Betfair odds ladder - so a move from 4.40 to 4.30 is seen as a 10 tick movement by some people and a 1 tick movement by others.
spreadbetting
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Dallas wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:51 pm
The term DOBing stands for 'Double or Bust' and is used to describe a runner who's odds have traded at 50% of its BSP (or 50% below the price when backed) because at 50% odds you can green up for the value of your stake - hence you have doubled your money (bust if it does not reach 50%).
Fair enough, Dallas, that makes sense, someone needs to have a word with that ignorant Warlock guy :)
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northbound
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spreadbetting wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:56 pm
Fair enough, Dallas, that makes sense, someone needs to have a word with that ignorant Warlock guy :)
:lol:

I believe the Warlock guy is far from ignorant. In fact, my suspicion is that his "special" formula is used to make dobbing look easier than it is.

A few years ago, I remember a website called Daily Donkey that advised lays and showed consistent profits. After further inspection, you could see he used industry SP prices to calculate his P/L, rather than Betfair's best lay prices at inplay time.
Charles1980
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Hi all,

I think it's completely misleading too. I looked back at their historical in running results and at the bottom it says, for example, 122/210 horses at 50% BSP. This gives the impression that if you blindly followed their picks you would be in profit for the month. On closer inspections, this is absolutely not the case, and in fact you would be at a loss following their selections, as horses they suggest are as low as 33% in fact are at 58% if you calculated it in the proper way.

I can see no logical explanation for them not keeping a record of whether a horse "dobbed" or not, other than that their results are poor. As someone says above, it gives the impression this is a profitable system, when it probably is not.
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BetScalper
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I have great success using Warlock data but then again I don’t go for 50% like you greedy lot.

My strategy goes for a more modest 35%

🤗
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firlandsfarm
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northbound wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:19 pm
A few years ago, I remember a website called Daily Donkey that advised lays and showed consistent profits. After further inspection, you could see he used industry SP prices to calculate his P/L, rather than Betfair's best lay prices at inplay time.
Yep, spotted that very quickly … I thought "Donkey" referred to the people who followed him! :lol:
spreadbetting wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:56 pm
Fair enough, Dallas, that makes sense, someone needs to have a word with that ignorant Warlock guy :)
In fairness to Warlock he does explain that …
The '% of BSP' percentages are worked out as implied odds and not as a direct comparison of the BSP to IPMIN. To go from 4.0 to 2.0 (a DOB), the implied odds would go down from 3/1 to evens in traditional bookmaking prices and this is what is calculated (the 1 point stake is removed from both the BSP and IPMIN).
As for the rest of this debate (yes I'm over a year late!) I think it's simple use of tightly defined language … "50%BSP" is not the same as "50%BSP Odds" … 50%BSP is what's used for dobbing whereas 50%BSP Odds is what I use in some of my systems.
Last edited by firlandsfarm on Tue May 28, 2019 6:57 am, edited 2 times in total.
Charles1980
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Would be interested to see what your selection criteria is, because I have done a spreadsheet of all of their results since 2014 and blindly backing them all at £10 to either DOB or reach 35% would result in significant loss!

Of the selections at 4.0 and above, 5824 reached a target of 35%, and 3755 didn't.
4446 successfully reached 50%, 5133 didn't.

The picture doesn't improve if you include under 4.0 selections either.

I've spent quite some time researching this method and it's put me off altogether, as it simply doesn't look profitable, no matter what % you aim for. Would be happy to be proved wrong though!
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BetScalper
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Charles1980 wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:03 pm
Would be interested to see what your selection criteria is, because I have done a spreadsheet of all of their results since 2014 and blindly backing them all at £10 to either DOB or reach 35% would result in significant loss!

Of the selections at 4.0 and above, 5824 reached a target of 35%, and 3755 didn't.
4446 successfully reached 50%, 5133 didn't.

The picture doesn't improve if you include under 4.0 selections either.

I've spent quite some time researching this method and it's put me off altogether, as it simply doesn't look profitable, no matter what % you aim for. Would be happy to be proved wrong though!
You can’t just back all the potential ones and make a profit long term.

Many factors involved.

- is the potential runner the favourite.
- is there an odds on favourite in the race.
- distance.
- course conditions.
- handicap mark.
- etc

The above will determine how quickly the potential runner shortens, if at all.
soccersaint
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Just out of interest .. do you have any stats for Favs that touch 1.5 in play ?

Would you be better off looking at market position rather than previous data.

Given that 33% ish win the vast majority don’t ever get to look like winning...

Don’t give up on Dobbing altogether ... there is a few other angles to try...

IMHO :geek:
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