Horse racing betting strategy - close bets or not?
- ShaunWhite
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- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Value closing is as important as value opening. BSP is efficient so unless you can guarentee you'll beat that then you're best leaving things as they are. You probably won't beat it on pure stats (eg lay @ 1.xx or whatever, if you could then everyone here would simply be backing at bsp and laying at 1.xx ) so you'll need to be a good race reader with a fast finger.
ohhh. how many - lol.BetScalper wrote: ↑Thu Nov 22, 2018 9:38 pmJim, I haven’t had any MDMA for years.jimibt wrote: ↑Thu Nov 22, 2018 9:14 pmyou THINK -lol. MDMA rulezBetScalper wrote: ↑Thu Nov 22, 2018 9:13 pmIt would make sense because a certain number of horses get turned over at 1.01, depending on the race course. But it depends at what price you initially backed them at. I think I read somewhere that it would work long term if you backed them at >= 3.00 decimal and layed them at <= 75% of the back price.
- BetScalper
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm
Around 1989 to 1992. The stuff is seriously lethal. Not a good idea.
Now I stick to my dark rum and occasional cigar.
i knew it!! the odd havana to poke a snook at trump - lolBetScalper wrote: ↑Thu Nov 22, 2018 10:00 pmAround 1989 to 1992. The stuff is seriously lethal. Not a good idea.
Now I stick to my dark rum and occasional cigar.
- BetScalper
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm
You sussed me out.jimibt wrote: ↑Thu Nov 22, 2018 10:05 pmi knew it!! the odd havana to poke a snook at trump - lolBetScalper wrote: ↑Thu Nov 22, 2018 10:00 pmAround 1989 to 1992. The stuff is seriously lethal. Not a good idea.
Now I stick to my dark rum and occasional cigar.
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
HmmmmmmmmmmShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Nov 22, 2018 9:39 pmValue closing is as important as value opening.
BSP is efficient so unless you can guarentee you'll beat that then you're best leaving things as they are.
You probably won't beat it on pure stats
I shall say no morespreadbetting wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:10 pmFor horseracing the in-play and pre off markets have pretty much merged now people are aware they can close out their pre off postions inplay on say front runners or held up horses.
(actually I'll let you off Shaun, cos of your wording, BSP is "probably" efficient - you're as bad as Peter!)
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- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
They're totally different.
Probably takes two forms, as an assertion (probably is) or as a doubt (probably isn't). As we're talking numbers and not judging the best lager, I thought it prudent to use the latter as I hadn't checked. I'd never make an unverified verifiable assertion, I've got a reputation to consider!
btw I don't think it's wise to keep bringing that tweet up, it's like reminding someone about drunk texts they sent to an ex-girlfriend. Give the lad a break now eh...Once or twice is banter but you'll probably get a punch in the face if you keep doing it.
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
Just a bit of bantz !!
I must be the only one who doesn't see that tweet as an issue. I really couldn't care less about who's got the biggest dick.
I judge people by content - & Dallas tops Peter on that score, sorry Pete - you've still got time to redeem yourself though (& Dallas could have a -ve p&l for all I know) !
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Same. Chabuddy G meets Ron Jeremyruthlessimon wrote: ↑Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:36 amI really couldn't care less about who's got the biggest dick.
You're probably too young to know Ron Jeremy, and most will be too old to know Chabbudy G
Sorry to the OP for the thread drift.
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I guess I'm going to keep things as they are and let my bets run.
Nowadays I tend to treat my bets as trades in that most of the time I lay them in running. When I do have bets most of the selections tend to be at 6.0 or bigger. I ususally offer a lay bet @ 1.33 to be kept in running for 3 times the back stake. Yes of course you will lose a small % of your winnings but I'm amazed how many times it's got me out of trouble when a horse gets beat in the last few yards, gets carried out by a loose horse or falls with the race at it's mercy. Also although rare these days if it gets demoted by the stewards you at least get your stake back with a small profit.Slippery Richie wrote: ↑Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:39 pmI guess I'm going to keep things as they are and let my bets run.
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I'm just trying to figure whether it's profitable to lay back my bets - in the long term. How did you land on 1.33 being the lay price?ANGELS15 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 25, 2018 5:19 pmNowadays I tend to treat my bets as trades in that most of the time I lay them in running. When I do have bets most of the selections tend to be at 6.0 or bigger. I ususally offer a lay bet @ 1.33 to be kept in running for 3 times the back stake. Yes of course you will lose a small % of your winnings but I'm amazed how many times it's got me out of trouble when a horse gets beat in the last few yards, gets carried out by a loose horse or falls with the race at it's mercy. Also although rare these days if it gets demoted by the stewards you at least get your stake back with a small profit.Slippery Richie wrote: ↑Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:39 pmI guess I'm going to keep things as they are and let my bets run.
I've had a number of 1.01's beat but i still lean towards thinking laying back is losing value. Although I'm also not sure about it in terms of commission.
Slippery Richie wrote: ↑Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:55 pmsorry for the delay in getting back to you. I came up with the figure of 1.33 more through experience/observation. The idea came about when Betfair launched their 'cash out' feature a few years ago. I would sometimes use the feature to cash out of a bet where the horse was doing well in a race and I could 'green up'. The problem was that 'cash out' might flash up on the phone but when I tried to click on it I might have to click on it several times before it worked or sometimes the odds had shot back up and the opportunity had gone. One day I had backed a huge price runner nearly 1000/1 which was still in contention at the 2nd last jump cash out flashed up for a few seconds but then was gone. Also problems with the betfair picture delay. I decided then to place a lay bet to keep in running. It had to offer reasonable value if the horse looked likely to win but not cost me too much if it did. A classic case in point was Nendrum in the 2.15 Musselborough today. I had backed it around 4.1 for £12 with a £40 lay bet at 1.33. Nendrum fell at the 2nd last when looking the likely winner so I still ended up in profit. For bigger priced horses I use bigger lay prices.ANGELS15 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 25, 2018 5:19 pmNowadays I tend to treat my bets as trades in that most of the time I lay them in running. When I do have bets most of the selections tend to be at 6.0 or bigger. I ususally offer a lay bet @ 1.33 to be kept in running for 3 times the back stake. Yes of course you will lose a small % of your winnings but I'm amazed how many times it's got me out of trouble when a horse gets beat in the last few yards, gets carried out by a loose horse or falls with the race at it's mercy. Also although rare these days if it gets demoted by the stewards you at least get your stake back with a small profit.Slippery Richie wrote: ↑Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:39 pmI guess I'm going to keep things as they are and let my bets run.
I'm just trying to figure whether it's profitable to lay back my bets - in the long term. How did you land on 1.33 being the lay price?
I've had a number of 1.01's beat but i still lean towards thinking laying back is losing value. Although I'm also not sure about it in terms of commission.