Horse racing betting strategy - close bets or not?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
Slippery Richie
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Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:02 pm

I guess I'm going to keep things as they are and let my bets run.
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ANGELS15
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Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

Slippery Richie wrote:
Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:39 pm
I guess I'm going to keep things as they are and let my bets run.
Nowadays I tend to treat my bets as trades in that most of the time I lay them in running. When I do have bets most of the selections tend to be at 6.0 or bigger. I ususally offer a lay bet @ 1.33 to be kept in running for 3 times the back stake. Yes of course you will lose a small % of your winnings but I'm amazed how many times it's got me out of trouble when a horse gets beat in the last few yards, gets carried out by a loose horse or falls with the race at it's mercy. Also although rare these days if it gets demoted by the stewards you at least get your stake back with a small profit.
Slippery Richie
Posts: 20
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:02 pm

ANGELS15 wrote:
Sun Nov 25, 2018 5:19 pm
Slippery Richie wrote:
Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:39 pm
I guess I'm going to keep things as they are and let my bets run.
Nowadays I tend to treat my bets as trades in that most of the time I lay them in running. When I do have bets most of the selections tend to be at 6.0 or bigger. I ususally offer a lay bet @ 1.33 to be kept in running for 3 times the back stake. Yes of course you will lose a small % of your winnings but I'm amazed how many times it's got me out of trouble when a horse gets beat in the last few yards, gets carried out by a loose horse or falls with the race at it's mercy. Also although rare these days if it gets demoted by the stewards you at least get your stake back with a small profit.
I'm just trying to figure whether it's profitable to lay back my bets - in the long term. How did you land on 1.33 being the lay price?

I've had a number of 1.01's beat but i still lean towards thinking laying back is losing value. Although I'm also not sure about it in terms of commission.
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ANGELS15
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Slippery Richie wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:55 pm
ANGELS15 wrote:
Sun Nov 25, 2018 5:19 pm
Slippery Richie wrote:
Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:39 pm
I guess I'm going to keep things as they are and let my bets run.
Nowadays I tend to treat my bets as trades in that most of the time I lay them in running. When I do have bets most of the selections tend to be at 6.0 or bigger. I ususally offer a lay bet @ 1.33 to be kept in running for 3 times the back stake. Yes of course you will lose a small % of your winnings but I'm amazed how many times it's got me out of trouble when a horse gets beat in the last few yards, gets carried out by a loose horse or falls with the race at it's mercy. Also although rare these days if it gets demoted by the stewards you at least get your stake back with a small profit.
sorry for the delay in getting back to you. I came up with the figure of 1.33 more through experience/observation. The idea came about when Betfair launched their 'cash out' feature a few years ago. I would sometimes use the feature to cash out of a bet where the horse was doing well in a race and I could 'green up'. The problem was that 'cash out' might flash up on the phone but when I tried to click on it I might have to click on it several times before it worked or sometimes the odds had shot back up and the opportunity had gone. One day I had backed a huge price runner nearly 1000/1 which was still in contention at the 2nd last jump cash out flashed up for a few seconds but then was gone. Also problems with the betfair picture delay. I decided then to place a lay bet to keep in running. It had to offer reasonable value if the horse looked likely to win but not cost me too much if it did. A classic case in point was Nendrum in the 2.15 Musselborough today. I had backed it around 4.1 for £12 with a £40 lay bet at 1.33. Nendrum fell at the 2nd last when looking the likely winner so I still ended up in profit. For bigger priced horses I use bigger lay prices.

I'm just trying to figure whether it's profitable to lay back my bets - in the long term. How did you land on 1.33 being the lay price?

I've had a number of 1.01's beat but i still lean towards thinking laying back is losing value. Although I'm also not sure about it in terms of commission.
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ANGELS15
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Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

Sorry not sure what happened there my answer ended up in the middle of your post!
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

There's two ways to approach it.
Either with fast pictures and being a great race reader/bookmaker or by downloading the free BF data and looking at the BSP vs IP low on a large number of horses and/or courses. The run-in is often a key factor for jeopardy based ideas like this one, as are a fair few dobbing concepts too probably.

But essentially you've done one trade as far as BSP. Now you're doing a second one in-running to try and win a little bit extra. If you think of it that way then hopefully the outcome of the first part won't influence your decision on how to play the second.
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ANGELS15
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Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:10 pm
There's two ways to approach it.
Either with fast pictures and being a great race reader/bookmaker or by downloading the free BF data and looking at the BSP vs IP low on a large number of horses and/or courses. The run-in is often a key factor for jeopardy based ideas like this one, as are a fair few dobbing concepts too probably.

But essentially you've done one trade as far as BSP. Now you're doing a second one in-running to try and win a little bit extra. If you think of it that way then hopefully the outcome of the first part won't influence your decision on how to play the second.
Agree with you on that one.
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